‘Embarrassment’: Israel rocked by ‘complete failure’

Thousands have been left dead in both Israel and Gaza as questions are raised about a “complete intelligence failure”.

Intelligence failure? Government inaction? Or the natural consequence of months of political crisis? Israel is struggling to come to grips with how its military – one of the most advanced in the world – was so comprehensively surprised.

First came the drones.

Taking a page from Ukraine’s giant-killing tactics in resisting the Russian invasion, Palestine’s Hamas group deployed waves of small commercial drones to attack Israeli observation posts across the occupied territories.

Then came the paragliders.

Palestine has no operational airfield. The Gaza International Airport was destroyed by Israeli forces during the second Intifada in 2000. Instead, the first wave of Hamas fighters used simple motorised hang-gliders to sweep over Israel’s front lines and barrier walls.

Only then were volleys of unguided rockets and swarms of fighters begin their assault on Israeli settlements and military emplacements.

Palestinians and militants from the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades run towards the Erez crossing between Israel and the northern Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023. Picture: MAJDI FATHI / AFP

It was the deadliest assault launched upon Israel in exactly 50 years.

On October 6, 1973, Israeli forces were also taken by surprise in the opening moves of the Yom Kippur War. Israel’s military and government agencies had failed to notice the massive assembly of forces needed to make the attack a reality.

“The fact is Israel had a complete intelligence failure, operational failure, the fact that they’ve managed to enter the country so easily, that’s a big embarrassment and a big challenge from a security point of view,” says Chatham House Professor Yossi Mekelberg.

“There will be serious questions asked about the ability of Hamas to infiltrate Israel in this fashion, and on such a scale.”

Israel’s second “Pearl Harbor”

Israeli Defence Force spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Caracas says the weekend’s surprise attack was comparable to the Pearl Harbor raid on the United States that triggered its entry into World War II.

“It’s two words that tells you that there was a surprise attack that caught one side off guard, which had catastrophic initial results, and then set in motion a chain of events that substantially changed reality,” he told ABC radio this morning.

“There will be very difficult questions that the IDF will need to answer and report back to Israeli society. Exactly what happened, how it happened, and, and why. Those are questions that are extremely important. But they will be dealt with once the fighting is over.”

Israeli soldiers inspect the weapons used by Palestinian fighters in front of an Israeli police station in Sderot, Israel on October 8, 2023. Picture: JACK GUEZ / AFP

Where was Shin Bet, Israel’s internal intelligence agency?

Where was Mossad, its external spy agency?

What about the Israel Defence Force’s extensive electronic and digital surveillance networks?

But questions are also being aimed at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

“Hamas struck Israel while it is deeply divided, following months of protests over Prime Minister Netanyahu’s attempts to weaken the judiciary and generally the democratic system, harming its military preparedness,” argues Professor Mekelberg.

Netanyahu’s attempts to centralise power included the Israel defence forces. His far-right allies had launched public attacks on senior officials over their support for Israel’s Supreme Court, prompting soldiers to refuse to turn up for reservist duty.

Prime Minister of the State of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu. Picture: Getty Images via AFP

Chief of staff General Herzi Halevi and air force chief Tomer Bar went so far as to warn the Likud Party that its actions and rhetoric was resulting in turmoil within the military, and “could affect Israel’s preparedness”.

“Israeli security has not looked so weak in a long time and the government response that follows over the next few days, seeking to compensate, may be as unprecedented as the attack itself,” says Mekelberg. “The cycle of violence will be hard to contain.”

Eternal struggle

“Israeli officials will worry that a soft response to the current violence would encourage Hamas to strike again, and they will also be concerned that Hezbollah, Iran, and other foes would see Israel as weak,” argue Center for Strategic and International Studies analysts Daniel Byman and Alexander Palmer.

Israel has already promised a massive retaliation.

“We will change reality on the ground in Gaza for the next 50 years,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared. “What was before, will be no more. We will operate at full force.”

The most recent retaliatory incursion by Israeli forces into Palestinian territory was in 2014.

This crisis resulted in the deaths of 66 Israeli soldiers, six Israeli civilians and more than 2000 Palestinians.

Relatives carry the bodies of children from the Abu Quta family who were killed in Israeli strikes on the Palestinian city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, during their funeral on October 8, 2023. Picture: SAID KHATIB / AFP

But tit-for-tat strikes and raids have continued ever since.

“History has proven that neither side can prevail militarily,” says Mekelberg. “Each can kill a lot of people, but Hamas cannot dictate Israeli policy with violence or hostage-taking, and Israel cannot stamp Hamas out of existence with its air force and special forces.”

Palestinian militants of the Islamic Jihad movement participate in an anti-Israel military parade on October 4, 2023. Picture: MAHMUD HAMS / AFP

But, this time, the Israeli government has been severely embarrassed.

“Before the latest round of fighting, Israeli leaders could argue that occasional air strikes and economic pressure kept Hamas off-balance, unable to pose a major threat to Israel,” Byman and Palmer argue. “That argument will now hold little weight.”

Outright occupation, however, also brings risks.

“A ground invasion that overthrows Hamas would leave Israel stuck administering the strip, forced to deal with its difficult economic situation and hostile population,” they add.

“Yet for all these problems, Israeli leaders might still feel compelled to go in. The scale of this attack is so immense that a return to anything approaching the status quo ante would look like a victory for Hamas. Israeli politicians have a history of short-term thinking, and popular passions are riding high.”

Psychological impact

The failure of Israel’s intelligence network to warn of the attack will have profound implications.

“Today, it is not only those who live facing Gaza feeling vulnerable, but the entire Israeli population. While the physical damage is visible and hard to comprehend, the psychological impact will remain for a long time,” says Professor Mekelberg.

Israeli settlers in occupied territories will feel even more exposed.

Israeli citizens living in UN-mandated territory will not feel safe from terror attacks.

“Hamas will view the attacks as a great success psychologically as much as militarily,” says Mekelberg. “At the same time, it hopes to provoke a massive Israeli response, derail or delay plans for Israel– Saudi normalisation and bring the blockade of Gaza back onto the international agenda.”

Netanyahu, however, is looking for ways to shore up his position and that of his Likud party. And the well established precedent is for Israel to escalate.

“What the attacks do show is that efforts to normalise Israel’s relations with its neighbours cannot take place in isolation from the Palestinian issue, which will remain a serious destabilising factor,” warns Mekelberg. “It is also a bitter lesson for Israel that without just peace with the Palestinians its security cannot be guaranteed.”