But one company may already have it in the bag — by jumping the gun and building one anyway.

In a bid to win a slice of the expansive $534 billion US defence budget announced yesterday, Northrop Grumman has teased a glimpse of its next super-secret stealth bomber.

The defence contractor is lobbying hard to win the super-lucrative $55 billion contract, even going so far as releasing a television commercial.

As defence industry blog War is Boring points out: The barely discernible shadow among the clouds at the end of the Northrop ad is a tantalising teaser.

It appears to match the outline of an aircraft design quietly patented in 2009.

While many “concept” images and patents are generated as largely marketing exercises, they can provide a tantalising taste of current technological thinking.

CASHING IN: what the enormous new US defence budget means for Australia

They can also be deliberate diversions: The project to replace the United States ageing fleet of B-52s, B-1s and B-2s is, after all, one of the world’s deepest secrets.

It’s also a critical project: As Russia and China rapidly erode the United States’ lead in military technology and spending, the deterrence such a bomber can provide is seen as increasingly crucial.

F-35 DOGFIGHT: Is our future fighter already obsolete?

“I think the Long Range Strike Bomber is absolutely essential to keep our deterrent edge as we go into the next 25 years,” US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel told media earlier this week. “It’s something that I have particularly put a priority on in the budgets and things that I’ve talked about with the Congress,”

But a US Congress report last year put forward the notion that the US air force has already secretly chosen its next generation bomber, and suggests it may even be flight testing one.

Tales of strange aircraft in the skies above Texas and enormous new hangars at the “Area 51” testing facility have also been appearing in recent aviation enthusiast blogs and publications.

Is this Northrop’s new beast?

And what roles does a big, heavy — and enormously expensive — aircraft such as this have in future battlefields?

FLIGHT LINES

Exactly what form, and what role, such a new bomber would have remains the subject of speculation.

There are the obvious needs: Stealth to remain unobserved, range to reach far across the world and the technological prowess to punctually deliver precision weapons. To achieve this, such an aircraft has to be large, smooth and slick — with a few strategically placed angles to deflect radar and an airframe built of a sandwich of exotic radar-absorbing materials.

There may already be hints as to what it looks like.

AREA 51 MYSTERY: What’s happening now at the secret US base?

In March last year plane-spotters photographed several unusual aircraft in Texas. At the head of the stark contrails declaring their presence appeared to be “cranked-kite” flying wings.

Notably, such a shape is common in Northrop’s concept images.

The aircraft in the photo are, however, distorted by distance. There remains the possibility they are just B-2 bombers — or even revived F117 stealth fighters — undergoing testing or training.

Military technology is undergoing a fundamental shift: The ever-increasing capability of drones is changing thinking when it comes to everything from ships, submarines, aircraft — and even soldiers’ personal gear.

FLYING AIRCRAFT CARRIERS: DARPA calls for inspired ideas

The question many defence analysts are asking: Can the long development times needed to build modern aircraft keep pace with such a shifting environment?

The current mantra in military design halls is called “Family of Systems” (FoS). Essentially, it is the notion that a wide variety of external sources — such as satellites, surveillance aircraft and drones, as well as combat ships on the water and soldiers on the ground — can all transmit a battle-winning flood of detail to the aircraft at once.

Doubters point out this works only if that such tenuous electronic information is available. When it’s not, the aircraft has to rely on traditional levels of combat capability.

Remote or on-board autonomous control also frees an aircraft from the physical restraints imposed by the need to keep a crew alert and comfortable. But the need for a human “in the loop” of decision making processes remains high. Artificial intelligence, despite the hype, is not yet above the level of a ground worm.

So such future bombers would also likely have the option of being dual-controlled: A drone for one mission, manned for the next.

FUTURES IN THE BALANCE

Officially, it’s been designated the Long-Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B) program.

To save on costs, the project is reported to rely heavily on existing proven technology instead of exploring new and risky technology.

The budget is said to be set at $US550 million per aircraft. The Pentagon has reportedly already threatened to cancel the program if costs blow out to over the $55 billion total allocated.

The official race to win the LRS-B contract began some six months ago, even before funding was announced.

Exactly which company will get the $50 billion contract to build the new bomber is likely to be determined in the next few months.

TARANIS AT WOOMERA: Britain tests its super drone here

Northrop Grumman is coming from behind: Lockheed Martin won the exclusive contract to develop and build the controversial F-35 stealth fighter — the only US frontline combat aircraft project in recent decades.

But Northrop does have an ace up its sleeve: It built the ominous bat-winged B-2 “Spirit” Stealth Bomber of the 1990s and, most recently, the still ultra-secret RQ-180 stealth spy drone and the X-47B naval testbed drone.

An earlier, smaller, version of this drone — the RQ-170 — may have been what Iran infamously “confused” into landing in its territory in 2011.

Lockheed may still be in contention. It has its own “B-3” bomber concept. But there also is a proposal to modify the mothballed production line for its F-22 “Raptor” fighters to produce a new “FB-22” version as a viable — and fast — alternative.

Whichever aircraft company wins the new bomber contract is likely to be the sole survivor. Both Lockheed and Northrop would be hard-pressed to survive any further long periods of enforced “hibernation” of their design and development teams.

KILLER ROBOTS: Are military drones ‘overwhelming’ their human handlers?

So lobbying and marketing is likely to be intense.

Indications are Northrop hasn’t been caught napping.

As defence industry blog War Is Boring suggests, there are indications the company has already built a prototype of their secret proposed design.

Given the protracted development of the F-35 “Lightning II” stealth fighter, such a prototype would almost have to be already flying if the US Air Force’s requirement that the new bomber be ready in the 2020s is to be met.

After all, it has taken almost 20 years for the next generation stealth fighter to get to its as-yet unfinished state.

ANTIQUES IN THE AIR

With its B-52 fleet now well into its 50s, the US air force is finding it increasingly difficult and expensive just to keep the behemoths flying. It once wanted 132 of the B-2 “Spirit” to replace the 1960s veterans. Instead it ended up with just 21 with a price tag of $US2.2 billon each.

While the B-52 may be rapidly closing on the old retirement age of its human masters, it’s a little broadcast fact that the much-touted B-2 stealth bombers have until recently been sporting computers with little more power than that of the Commodore 64 of the 1980s.

It’s a reminder that the average of even these font-line nuclear deterrent stealth aircraft is now more than 20 years.

“From the missiles to the submarines to the bombers to the warheads, we have very old, ageing machines. But upon those machines, the rest of our defence efforts depend,” US House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry recently said.

The Pentagon now finds it cannot delay replacement programs any further.

With good cause: The competition is catching up.

Of particular concern is China’s Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter. As big as the now retired F-111 bomber, it adds the advantages of 5th generation combat aircraft features such as stealth, supercruise over its swing-wing predecessor.

Any surprise military flare-up in the Middle East, Eastern Europe or Asia would require US long range bombers to be ready and able to be deployed instantly. Questions surround the ability of the US arsenal’s non-stealthy B-52 and B-1 bombers to do so.

“If you look around the world, you see lots of people modernising their force. We see the Russians, specifically, modernising all of their legs,” their submarines, their missiles and their mobile missiles,” the commander of US Global Strike Command, General Stephen Wilson, told reporters yesterday.

Clearly, the US government now thinks it needs to spend up big on staying ahead.

@JamieSeidel