Ukrainian military claims Russia is struggling to sign up troops as invasion enters its seventh month

Ukraine intelligence officials say Russia is failing to sign up numbers for the military as the invasion enters its seventh month.

Ukraine intelligence officials claim Russia is failing to sign up numbers for the military as the invasion enters its seventh month.

The Russian Federation has created a new enlistment system to encourage more working men to the front lines. According to intelligence data, officials in the city of Nizhny Novgorod promised to pay a monthly 10,000 rubles (A$242.00) to families of “contract volunteers”. However, Ukrainian officials say the number of people who have signed up for war has not increased significantly.

“The formation of a tank battalion, which has been ongoing since the beginning of July, has actually been disrupted in Nyzhnyi Novhorod region of the Russian federation. It was established that out of the required 160 people, only about 30 signed contracts for military service,” an update from the Ukrainian military read.

“For greater motivation, regional senior officials promise to pay monthly financial assistance from September 1. However, such a step did not cause a significant influx of those willing to go to war.

“It is noted that a new mobilization system was created in russia. It provides for the implementation of mobilization measures on a territorial basis. In particular, subdivisions are formed in each regional unit and are financed from the local budget.

“Representatives of ‘small-numbered peoples’ and the poorest population fall into the zone of special attention of the so-called recruiters. According to the results of social research, these categories have the greatest ‘protest potential’ due to the deterioration of the social and economic situation.”

Six months after Russian forces launched what they hoped would be a blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has turned into a grinding campaign of daily air strikes and battles with no clear endgame in sight.

Much of the country’s east and south are under Russia’s control, depriving Ukraine of the Black Sea ports vital for the grain exports that are the lifeblood of its economy.

Russia is also suffering under Western sanctions, though few expect President Vladimir Putin to end the slow but steady push deeper into Ukraine anytime soon - let alone give up the territories already occupied.

Both sides have sustained punishing losses of lives and materiel, but neither appears willing to consider a ceasefire.

Russia is also suffering under Western sanctions, though few expect President Vladimir Putin to end the slow but steady push deeper into Ukraine anytime soon.

Both sides have sustained punishing losses of lives and materiel, but neither appears willing to consider a ceasefire.

Ukrainians believe they are in an existential fight to defend a nationhood that Putin dismisses as a historical fallacy.

“In such circumstances, nobody can win,” said Konstantin Kalachev, a Moscow-based political analyst. “This ‘special military operation’ could go on for years.” “Russia is hoping to win by wearing them down... Time is not on Ukraine’s side, and its economy could break,” he told AFP.

Marie Dumoulin, a director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the vigorous support from Western allies would also make it harder for either side to back down now.

“Each side thinks they can still press a military advantage, so it’s unlikely that this is going end soon,” she said.

Putin has also framed the conflict as part of Russia’s resistance to an expansionist NATO, making any suggestion of “defeat” unacceptable.

He could punish Ukraine’s desire for closer EU integration by pushing toward the key port of Odessa, effectively landlocking the country and throttling its exports.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky meanwhile might seek more tactical successes, like the sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser in April, or possibly even try a counter-offensive to retake some areas.

“That would allow him to remotivate Ukrainian troops and society and justify his requests for more aid from European partners,” Dumoulin said.

Military hardware and intelligence data from Europe and the US have allowed Ukrainian forces to slow -- but not stall -- Russian forces in the Donbas and along the Black Sea coast.

But that is also allowing Russia to consolidate its positions, having already built up its military presence on the Crimean peninsula over the past eight years since its annexation by Moscow.

Putin has also framed the conflict as part of Russia’s resistance to an expansionist NATO, making any suggestion of ‘defeat’ unacceptable.

If the conflict sinks into a quagmire over the winter and into 2023, much will depend on whether the West’s support will hold up, especially if voters feel the costs -- not least rising fuel and food prices -- are becoming too high.

“Probably there will come a point when Putin will count on Western lassitude and will offer some openings... to push Western leaders to pressure Ukraine into ending the conflict on Russia’s terms,” Dumoulin said.

Barring a disastrous military miscalculation, Ukraine’s army is unlikely to collapse outright, and few expect Zelensky will accept any negotiations that do not see Ukraine recover all lost territory, including Crimea.

And if its allies continue to provide aid and weapons, Russia’s military advantage could steadily erode.

That could also threaten Putin’s public support at home, potentially catalysing opposition forces ahead of presidential elections set for March 2024.

“What could aggravate tensions between the Kremlin and what remains of civil society... is a declaration of war, martial law, or general mobilisation,” Minic said.

“This would be difficult to manage in large cities such as Moscow or Saint Petersburg, where the obsessive anti-Western narrative has less of a hold.”

— with AFP