UK PM headed for record breaking defeat at general election: two new polls

Rishi Sunak could lead his party to the worst drubbing in Conservative history and repeat a humiliation John Howard endured.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set to lead his Conservative Party to a record breaking defeat at the upcoming general election after almost 15 years of the party being in power.

In an echo of what happened to sitting Australian PM John Howard in 2007, when he lost his seat of Bennelong at the general election which ushered in Kevin Rudd, Mr Sunak is set to face the humiliation of losing his own seat and being turfed out of parliament entirely.

Right wing populist Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party could also win seats from the Tories adding to the PM’s woes.

It comes as one of Mr Sunak’s security officers was arrested on Wednesday offer allegedly betting in the timing of the election.

Britain's Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak. (Photo by Stefan Rousseau / POOL / AFP)

Record breaking drubbing

Two polls published on Wednesday found the UK’s Labour Party was set to win a record-breaking number of seats and the incumbent Tories are due for a historic drubbing in the UK election on July 4.

With voters heading to the polls in just over two weeks time, the latest pair of nationwide surveys — by YouGov and Savanta/Electoral Calculus — showed Labour set to win either 425 or 516 out of 650 seats.

Either of the results would be the current opposition party’s best-ever return of MPs in a general election.

Labour leader Kier Starmer (C) could be the next UK PM. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, the twin polls showed support for the Conservatives — in power since 2010 — plummeting to unprecedented lows, with one estimating they would win just 53 seats.

The Savanta and Electoral Calculus survey for Britain’s Daily Telegraph newspaper predicted Rishi Sunak would become the first sitting UK prime minister ever to lose their seat at a general election.

The poll, which forecasts three-quarters of Sunak’s cabinet also losing their seats, would hand Labour a majority of 382 — more than double the advantage enjoyed by ex-prime minister Tony Blair in 1997.

It also showed the centrist Liberal Democrats just three seats behind the Conservatives on 50, and the Scottish National Party losing dozens of seats north of the English border.

Then PM John Howard lost his seat of Bennelong in 2007 to Maxine McKew.

Record Tory defeat?

The YouGov survey predicted Mr Sunak’s party would win in just 108 constituencies. That was a drop of 32 on its prediction from two weeks ago, reflecting how badly the Conservatives’ election campaign is perceived to have gone.

The 108 seats the Tories are predicted to win in the poll would still be their lowest number in the party’s near 200-year history of contesting UK elections.

Mr Sunak is widely seen as having run a lacklustre and error-strewn campaign, including facing near-universal criticism earlier this month for leaving early from D-Day commemoration events in France.

In contrast, Labour leader Keir Starmer, set to become prime minister if his party prevails on July 4, has sought to play it safe and protect his party’s poll leads.

YouGov also found anti-EU populist Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party on course to win five seats, including in the Clacton constituency in eastern England where the Brexit figurehead is standing.

Farage has said he will attempt to co-opt what remains of the Conservative Party if he is elected and it fares poorly on July 4.

Reform Party leader Nigel Farage speaks to an audience on stage at Princes Theatre on June 18, 2024 in Clacton-on-Sea, England. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

Bodyguard arrested

On Wednesday, UK time, one of Mr Sunak’s security detail was suspended and then arrested.

The BBC has reported it was over allegations the person laid bets on when the election would be called.

The officer works for the London Metropolitan Police’ royalty and specialist command section.

The officer was arrested on Monday on suspicion of misconduct in public office. He was taken into custody and bailed pending further inquiries, the BBC reporters.