Sweden’s herd immunity strategy has failed, hospitals inundated

With three words, Sweden’s king captured the panic engulfing his country as it backflips on its COVID-19 strategy and case numbers explode.

With three words, Sweden’s King Carl Gustaf captured the panic engulfing his country as it backflips on a controversial herd immunity strategy and coronavirus case numbers explode.

On Instagram, he wrote, simply: “Hold on tight!”

The message is echoing around the Nordic breakaway nation which, up until now, has run a distinctly different race to its neighbours who locked down hard when the pandemic breached its borders.

It signals a complete reversal of a policy that allowed Swedes to govern themselves in the hopes that life could go on as normal.

Life did carry on as normal and it looked like Sweden might be vindicated for its strategy. But in the past few weeks, the country of 10 million has been smashed by COVID-19.

There were 6000 cases in a single day last week and hospitalisations are rising faster than anywhere else in Europe.

Sweden has banned gatherings of more than 8 people as a second wave of coronavirus continues to grow. "Don't go to gyms, don't go to libraries, don't host dinners. Cancel," Swedish Prime Minister Lofven said. https://t.co/szpGswWwwF pic.twitter.com/GxohtcXUVs

— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) November 17, 2020

The death toll is following predictably behind. The Washington Post reports that Sweden’s per capita death rate is several times higher than in Finland, Denmark and Norway – all of which locked down early.

It is believed roughly one-in-five people in Stockholm are infected.

With numbers exploding, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven has been forced to swallow his pride and admit that he got it wrong.

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‘Hold on tight’: Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf has captured the panic currently being felt in the country. Picture: Anders Wiklund/AFP

Sweden’s PM Stefan Lofven has conceded the herd immunity approach was wrong. Picture: Henrik Montgomery/TT News Agency/AFP

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At a news conference on Monday, he did just that, telling reporters: “It is a clear and sharp signal to every person in our country as to what applies in the future. Don’t go to the gym, don’t go the library, don’t have dinner out, don’t have parties – cancel!”

And with that, Sweden’s experiment was officially crushed. But critics say it was never going to succeed.

Number of confirmed deaths per day rising rapidly in Sweden. From 3 on Oct 21, to over 30 on Nov 9. And, for those who graph shows decrease, it doesn't. Shaded bars are dates were deaths are still coming in. With 100 new deaths reported today, these lines will only go up. pic.twitter.com/D809DhFj7O

— Christian Christensen (@ChrChristensen) November 19, 2020

Australian man and COVID-19 long-hauler David Steadson, who worked as an epidemiologist with the University of Queensland before moving to Sweden 20 years ago, told news.com.au the Swedish model rested too heavily on the wishful thinking that Swedes would keep themselves safe.

But the attitude that COVID-19 was not to be taken seriously became intertwined in the public health response.

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Back in May, Swedes were happily enjoying the sunshine with little concern over social distancing despite the coronavirus pandemic. Picture: Henrik Montgomery/TT News Agency/AFP

But what a difference six months makes. Now tables are taped off and fewer people are out and about as the second wave has hit the country hard. Picture: Fredrik Sandberg/TT News Agency/AFP

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When Mr Steadson first became ill, the advice from doctors was to stay away.

“Having suspected I had COVID-19, I was told not to even go to the doctor for fear of infecting health staff,” he says.

Even local media failed to gauge the seriousness of the situation, he said.

“Media outlets seemed more concerned with protecting Sweden’s image than they did in reporting the facts, and challenging the authorities over some of the frankly outrageous statements they make is left almost entirely to foreign journalists,” he says.

I predicted at the end of October we'd be passing the April peak of daily deaths in Sweden before Christmas. Marc Bevand has done a far more sophisticated analysis to, sadly, confirm my bottom of the spreadsheet doodlings and gut feelings learned at the feet of Johan Giesecke. https://t.co/WL44nIoq7l

— David Steadson 🇦🇺🇸🇪🇪🇺🌍 (@DavidSteadson) November 18, 2020

Dr Nick Talley is editor-in-chief of the Medical Journal of Australia. He says the Swedish model has been a failure.

“In my view, the Swedish model has not been a success, at least to date,” he told news.com.au.

“One clear goal at least early on was [to] reach herd immunity – but this was not achieved, not even close, and this was arguably predictable.”

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State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has made a U-turn in his coronavirus thinking as infections in the Nordic country spiral out of control. Picture: Janerik Henriksson/TT News Agency/AFP

He is joined by an increasing number of experts, both overseas and in Sweden, who are seeing the light.

Annika Linde, who was the predecessor to Sweden’s top public health officer Anders Tegnell, told the UK’s Daily Telegraph that she “hoped” Dr Tegnell was right about projections that Sweden would suffer less casualties because of accrued immunity.

“I hoped he was right. It would have been great. But he wasn’t,” she said. “Now we have a high death rate, and we have not escaped a second wave: Immunity makes a little difference maybe, but not much difference.”