Strategy experts warn the West to be prepared for the potential collapse of Russia

A former US military general is warning world leaders to prepare for what a world without Russia looks like, as Vladimir Putin reels from a major loss this week.

A US military general has warned the West to be prepared for the potential collapse of the Russian Federation, insisting the nation’s push to take Ukraine will not end well for President Vladimir Putin’s government.

Ben Hodges, who was formerly the commander of the United States Army in Europe, said the US must not react the same way it did to the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, cautioning world leaders to prepare for the “immense instability” which a world without the Russian Federation would experience.

Writing in UK newspaper The Daily Telegraph this week, Lt Gen Hodges suggested Mr Putin’s regime is facing a “crisis of confidence” as sanctions continue to batter the economy. After almost eight months attempting to topple Ukraine, Russia’s military has been forced to partially retreat, as the West continues to throw its might into the Ukrainian war effort.

Analysts in Russia have already bravely floated the idea that the public was misled on what Mr Putin’s “special operation” commencing in February would look like. Former Duma State Deputy Boris Nadezhdin was warned on a state media broadcast just this week for implying the war was “colonial” while calling for immediate peace talks.

Lt Gen Hodges implied the ongoing war effort could gradually topple Russia, suggesting things in Moscow could get violent very quickly if the “devastating” degradation of the economy continues.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine is going to win this war and that the Kremlin faces a historic crisis of confidence,” he said.

“Indeed, I now believe it is a genuine possibility that Vladimir Putin’s exposed weaknesses are so severe that we might be witnessing the beginning of the end – not only of his regime, but of the Russian Federation itself.

“If we fail to prepare for this possibility in the way that we failed to prepare for the collapse of the Soviet Union, it could introduce immense instability to our geopolitics.”

Analysts have suggested Vladimir Putin’s regime is facing a ‘crisis of confidence’ as sanctions continue to batter the economy. Picture: Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/AFP

A former military general has warned of the ‘immense instability’ a world without the Russian Federation would experience.

Hodges pointed to three major factors that could bring on the government’s collapse.

“The first is the breakdown of domestic confidence in the Russian Army, which has traditionally been at the core of the Kremlin’s legitimacy,” Lt Gen Hodges said.

“Its humiliation in Ukraine is now almost complete, with the proud Black Sea Fleet still hiding behind Crimea, too frightened to take action against a country that doesn’t even have a navy.”

“Second, the damage suffered by the Russian economy has been too devastating to sustain a population of 144 million.

“The loss of energy markets, which compensated for the country’s lack of modern industries, cannot be reversed. European governments will not rely again on Nord Stream-1 (natural gas pipeline), having witnessed how easily it can be turned off, and are already making long-term investments in domestic energy supply.”

Lt Gen Hodges suggested the national identity of the nation could also deteriorate under further stress.

“For despite possessing 70 times the landmass of the United Kingdom, the Federation has just twice the population,” he said.

“These numbers make civic solidarity difficult to achieve in the best of times, but now, with the metropole in a weak position, any sense of national identity could rapidly deteriorate.”

Strategy experts have admitted it is hard to predict the Kremlin’s next move after last week’s territorial loss.

Strategy experts have admitted it is hard to predict the Kremlin’s next move after last week’s territorial loss. Picture: Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/AFP

Having recaptured thousands of square kilometres of territory and several Russian-held towns, Kyiv appears in the driver’s seat on the battlefield, with some Ukrainian officials already talking about possible victory for President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Western-backed army.

“This will be like a snowball that keeps rolling and rolling,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in French newspaper Le Monde on Monday. “We will see the retreat of the world’s second most powerful army.”

But experts caution that such predictions may be premature.

Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Monday that his country’s troops were bombing lost territories in the east of Ukraine, and promised that Moscow would continue fighting “until its objectives are met”.

On Tuesday, Russia said it was delivering “massive” strikes on Ukraine’s front lines.

Major Russian troop movements are indeed likely after the setback, predicted Alexander Grinberg at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, calling recent Ukrainian successes “spectacular, but only tactical”.

Ivan Klyszcz, at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Estonia, warned that Ukrainian troops would not be able to sustain their offensive indefinitely.

“The Ukrainian forces will have to fortify themselves, especially along the border with Russia,” he said via AFP.

The Russian leader, meanwhile, faces “limited” options, Klyszcz said, as he keeps on eye on public opinion at home.

“Putin has chosen so far against mobilising Russia’s conscripts. Doing that would risk creating further instability as the demands on the population would grow substantially,” he said.

“The option of withdrawing all Russian forces is also risky, as the armed forces and the population expect some sort of victory.”