Expert reveals Vladimir Putin’s plan to wait out Western sanctions

A former White House adviser has exposed Vladimir Putin’s ultimate plan to rid Russia of harsh sanctions – but will it work?

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP

A top foreign affairs specialist and former White House adviser has offered insight into how Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to come out victorious on the other side of the Ukraine conflict.

There are currently more than 11,000 sanctions in place against Russia from multiple countries, with almost 9000 of those coming into effect after February 2022, following Mr Putin’s decision to send troops into Ukraine.

The “special military operation” that the Russian Leader initially claimed would take only a matter of days, has stretched on for almost five months with no end in sight.

With so much pressure coming from the West, the question being asked is: How long can Russia keep this up?

US National Security Council’s former senior director, Fiona Hill, said Mr Putin is essentially playing mind games to try to pressure Western nations to drop the sanctions against Russia.

There are more than 11,000 sanctions currently in place against Russia. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/AFP

Speaking to Foreign Policy Magazine, Ms Hill said Mr Putin’s ultimate game plan is to try to get the US and other nations to “defeat ourselves”.

“He’s going to try to make it as easy for himself as possible. Russia can keep on terrorising everybody and lobbing missiles all over the place. [It] can keep on putting an embargo on grain and making it very difficult,” she said.

“Putin’s assumption is that the Turks, the Lebanese, the African Union and everybody will start putting pressure on the United States and the West because he’s saying, ‘That’s the result of their sanctions.’

“Which it isn’t, of course – it’s him deliberately manipulating famine in Africa to put us all in the hot seat as the bad guys here. Putin’s game is to have us defeat ourselves, basically, because we can’t imagine being able to sustain this over several years.”

What about Australia’s sanctions?

Now, let’s look at this from the perspective of the sanctions Australia has imposed against Russia and whether it is possible for the Government to drop the measures purely because they have become unsustainable.

Australia has two types of sanctions regimes: United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions regimes and Australian autonomous sanctions regimes.

The Government is currently using the latter framework to impose sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

Since February, Australia has imposed a number of different sanctions on Russian individuals and entities, sanctions on the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and import and export sanctions.

The first impacts almost every Russian state bank, sovereign wealth funds, many Russian oligarchs and their family members, and members of the Russian Government.

In March 2022, the Government amended the Autonomous Sanctions Regulations 2011 to extend to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, after already applying to Crimea and Sevastopol.

These sanctions target exports and commercial activity in relation to the transport, telecommunications, energy and exploitation of oil, gas and mineral reserve sectors, and prohibit all imports.

Australia also expanded its list of import and export sanction goods, making it an offence for any citizen or corporation to be involved in the export of certain goods to Russia.

These goods include aluminium ores, aluminium oxide and aluminium hydroxide, as well as luxury goods such as purebred horses, caviar, crustaceans, truffles, wine, tobacco, pearls and artwork.

While all these sanctions are designed to impact Russia, there can be negative flow-on effects for the country imposing the measures.

Ukrainian servicemen drive a T-72 tank on the frontline in eastern Ukraine. Picture: Miguel Medina/AFP

Leading expert in international law, ANU’s Professor Donald Rothwell, said this is an “inevitable consequence” of an effective sanctions regime.

“If sanctions against Russia place limitations on the import of certain goods, well that obviously is going to have an impact on Australia,” he told news.com.au.

“Any effective sanctions regime is going to have negative flow-on effects.”

However, Professor Rothwell also noted that Russia is not one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, so the negative side effects of the sanctions aren’t likely to be as significant as measures against other major trading partners, such as China.

So how long can Australia keep these kinds of sanctions up? Well, according to Professor Rothwell, a very long time.

He said, while sanctions are initially headline-grabbing, they can take a very long time to actually have an impact, especially those directed at the economy.

“If these economic sanctions – as opposed to sanctions against individuals – are going to have an impact and have some ability to change the course of Russia in terms of the Ukraine conflict, they are going to have to be in place for a very long time,” Professor Rothwell said.

“Even if Russia was to suddenly halt military operations in Ukraine tomorrow, the sanctions would probably remain in place as a deterrent, to ensure that Russia would not recommence military operations or as a clear signal to Russia that its actions were unacceptable.”

A cloud of smoke billows into the air after a missile strike on a warehouse of an industrial and trading company in Odessa. Picture: Oleksandr GImanov/AFP

Given this, the idea that Mr Putin might be able to just wait out the sanctions, in Australia’s case at least, is unlikely.

As it doesn’t look like the Russian leader is planning to withdraw troops from Ukraine any time soon, Australians can expect the current sanctions to stick around.

Professor Rothwell noted the sanctions could be in place for “many years”, pointing to previous measures imposed by Australia against other countries.

“If you look at the history of sanctions arising from certain events, such as Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the situation in Iraq more generally following the Gulf War, and the situation in North Korea – many of these sanctions that Australia has put in place will in fact, remain in place for many, many years,” he said.