‘Blackmail’: Furious row between Poland and EU that could spilt Europe
One of Europe’s largest countries has said it is being “blackmailed” after it made a decision critics say could change the continent forever.
A dispute at the heart of Europe, years in the making, furiously erupted this week with claims of “blackmail”, intimidation and threats involving tens of billions of dollars.
It follows an incendiary decision in Poland’s capital of Warsaw which – if left to stand – could call into question the entire future of the European Union (EU), split the continent and make Brexit look like a side show.
One Europe watcher has compared Poland’s action to a “nuclear strike” on the very basis of the EU and the rule of law.
An EU expert has told news.com.au that Poland’s actions have “undermined democracy” and the government of the bloc’s fifth most populous state is “playing with fire”.
France has now said there is a real risk of Poland leaving the union, an outcome which now has its own name – “Polexit”.
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was in no mood to play nice this week when he spoke at the European parliament in Strasbourg blasting the “creeping” growth in EU powers.
Mr Morawiecki said Poland was “being attacked” by the EU after it threatened to withhold 57 billion euros ($A89bn) of funding due to the impasse.
“Blackmail must not be a method of policy,” he thundered in direct view of one of the EU’s top politicians, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
“Poland will not be intimidated,” he thundered.
The clash has been brewing for years. Poland, along with a host of former Communist eastern Europe nations, joined the EU in 2004 which, up to that point, had been a mostly western European project.
“When you join the bloc you have rights and responsibilities, treaties and obligations,” Matthew Coote, a research officer at RMIT’s European Union Centre of Excellence, told news.com.au.
“The rule of law, democracy and human rights, among other things. It’s like you’re signing up to a club – you’ve got to abide by those rules of the club,” he said.
All was well for several years. Polish citizens were allowed free movement around Europe and billions upon billions of euros flowed in to upgrade the county’s creaking infrastructure.
The EU, along with its NATO membership, had provided Poland with a “security blanket,” said Mr Coote against Russia which once lorded over the country of 38 million.
Poland ‘undermining democracy’
Then, in 2015 the Law and Justice Party – founded by brothers Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczynski – came to power. It’s been chipping away at EU norms ever since.
“Law and Justice are socially conservative and they’ve been very restrictive on women’s rights – particularly around abortion; attacking minorities – particularly the LGBTQI community; and undermining the independence of the media and the judiciary,” said Mr Coote.
“There’s no doubt about it, (Law and Justice) has been stacking the courts with its own supporters.
“An independent judiciary is a fundamental part of democracy, so it undermines democracy.”
None of this has gone down well in Brussels. In July, the European Court of Justice ruled that the Polish Government’s moves to reform the courts, which it’s feared will make them a lapdog for Law and Justice, could be violating EU law.
That issue exploded in early October when Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal ruled that Polish law overruled EU law in certain areas. That’s despite Poland agreeing to uphold EU law when it joined the bloc.
The message was clear: Brussels should keep its nose out of Law and Justice’s judiciary moves.
‘Nuclear strike’ on EU’s foundation
“Without independent courts, people have less protection and consequently their rights are at stake,” EU President Ursula von der Leyen said.
“This ruling calls into question the foundations of the EU.”
Professor of European law at London’s Middlesex University Laurent Pech compared the ruling to a “nuclear strike on the EU legal order”.
“Polish judges are going to have to choose between violating EU laws or disobeying the (Polish) constitution.
“If they do not violate EU laws, because they have a duty to apply EU law under the treaties, then they are going to face disciplinary proceedings and possibly also criminal proceedings,” he told website Euronews.
The risk of ‘Polexit’
France’s Europe Minister Clement Beaune said Polexit has been brought closer.
“This is an attack on the EU by a constitutional court that was modelled by the Polish government.
“It is very serious … there is the risk of a de facto exit,” he said.
Poland is not the only member state causing consternation in Brussels. Hungary, under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has been accused of stamping on press freedom, compromising the courts and whittling away at democracy.
The two countries’ actions risk splitting Europe. Indeed, member states are at odds on Poland’s actions – France is furious, Germany has said more talk is needed and some eastern states have cautiously got behind Poland.
Yet despite the Euro stoush, Poles are hugely in favour of the EU.
“It seems like a contradiction. They’re received lots of funds from the EU and benefited from free movement so it’s like the country wants to have its cake and eat it too,” said Mr Coote.
$90 billion at stake
The Brussels bureaucrats are now working out what they can do to counter Poland’s provocations.
The most effective action could be the withholding of EU funds.
That’s a huge problem for Warsaw which is the single biggest beneficiary of EU cash. The government’s “New Deal” Covid recovery program is dependent on Brussels slipping almost $A90bn into its back account.
It’s an EU ‘trap’
Editor of pro-government Polish publication Sieci Jacek Karnowski told the BBC the EU was the aggressor, trampling on its members’ sovereignty, and it was setting a “trap” for Poland.
“There is a possibility that Poland will be pushed out of the EU because we can already see that we are being pushed out.
“If the government were to say we want to leave, there would be a change of government, so it’s a trap set by Brussels.”
Mr Coote said he doubted Poland would leave the EU and certainly Law and Justice are adamant they want to remain in the bloc.
“There’s a lot of hot air and rhetoric around this.
“Law and Justice will push it as far as they can and the EU will come back and try and negotiate knowing they have the funding up their sleeve”.
He noted that the Warsaw tribunal’s decision on Polish law trumping EU law had yet to be published so, strictly speaking, it isn’t in effect.
One possibility is the EU simply strings things out until Poland’s next election in 2023.
The opposition Civic Coalition could tell Poles a vote for Law and Justice would be a vote for a possible Polexit.
“For Law and Justice, it’s a gamble. They’re playing with fire.”
It’s a gamble for the EU, however, given how popular the party is in Poland.
But if Poland won’t back down and Brussels ends up doing nothing it could create a crisis in the EU, a club which has prided itself on the rule of law and democracy.
Mr Coote said he was “disappointed” at the position Poland had found itself in.
“Poland is a large country with an incredible history. It could be the leading light of democracy in Eastern Europe.
“Sadly, at the moment, that’s not happening”.
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