‘Absolute catastrophe:’ How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fatally backfired

As countries internationally move to condemn the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is facing another disaster much closer to home.

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth day, President Vladimir Putin faces not only continued resistance from Ukrainian forces, but also a bubbling “catastrophe” closer to home.

While international governments have widely condemned Putin’s “war of choice”, the financial ramifications of war is beginning to show in Russia.

Writing on Twitter, academic and the CNA’s Research Program Director of Russian Studies, Michael Kofman called the invasion “an absolute catastrophe for the Russian economy”.

“I have no idea how he expects to withstand the fallout,” wrote Prof Kofman. “Repression can only achieve so much. I think they somehow imagined winning quickly & easily, avoiding the harshest Western sanctions.”

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What Putin has done is going to be an absolute catastrophe for the Russian economy. I have no idea how he expects to withstand the fallout. Repression can only achieve so much. I think they somehow imagined winning quickly & easily, avoiding the harshest Western sanctions. https://t.co/Y1Mob7igEf

— Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 27, 2022

‘Absolute catastrophe for the economy’

While pleas for diplomacy have landed on deaf ears, the international community have enacted another way to punish Mr Putin’s “assault on fundamental international rules”: sanctions.

A joint statement from the European Commission (the European Union’s executive branch), France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States condemned Mr Putin’s “war of choice” and disconnected Russian banks from the international financial system.

They also announced restrictive measures which would prevent the Russian Central Bank from accessing its international reserves. Part of this was a move to ban some Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system. The move would see account holders prevented from moving money around the 11,000 banks across 200-plus countries.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the move would hopefully “stop Putin from using his war chest”.

“Cutting banks off will stop them from conducting most of their financial transactions worldwide and effectively block Russian exports and imports,” she said.

Russia’s currency – the rouble – has tumbled to a record low after Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Picture: Alexander Nemenov/ AFP.

Although Switzerland has yet to impose their sanctions, it’s believed their pending involvement could create further concerns for Russia. Analysing the spread of Russia’s funds, the director of international think tank, Atlantic Council, said the Swiss government’s involvement could prevent Putin’s government from accessing US$25 billion (A$34.6 billion) in reserve assets.

“If accurate that Switzerland will join the economic sanctions tomorrow that is a serious blow to Moscow’s dwindling economic lifelines,” wrote Joshua Lipsky.

“The move could freeze action at the Bank for International Settlements where Russia likely holds close to $25 billion in reserve assets.”

If accurate that Switzerland will join the economic sanctions tomorrow that is a serious blow to Moscow's dwindling economic lifelines. The move could freeze action at the Bank for International Settlements where Russia likely holds close to $25 billion in reserve assets. pic.twitter.com/WuJMcYY8fa

— Josh Lipsky (@joshualipsky) February 27, 2022

“No longer shouting as loud:” Sentiment around Putin drops

The flow-on affect of the sanctions has also created turmoil in Russia.

Stoked by fears that banks could limit cash withdrawals, or cease operating, citizens have begun stockpiling cash.

Footage from media site Baza show 70 people waiting in line to use an ATM in the municipality of Khimki, Moscow. According to one report, the money in the ATM ran out within minutes.

Currently living in Russia’s capital, English blogger, Jonny Tickle said the sanctions have already affected some banking systems.

“Apple Pay and bank cards no longer work on the Moscow Metro,” he tweeted on Monday morning.

“The terminals use VTB (a Russian state-owned bank), a recently sanctioned Russian bank. Long queues at machines to buy paper tickets.”

Apple Pay and bank cards no longer work on the Moscow Metro. The terminals use VTB, a recently sanctioned Russian bank. Long queues at machines to buy paper tickets.

— Jonny Tickle (@jonnytickle) February 27, 2022

According to the New York Times, the demand for cash has “spiked 58-fold,” with the sanctions also making Russia vulnerable to slow growth and high inflation.

The rouble has also hit an all-time trading low, with 84 roubles buying just one US dollar.

The financial tension is creating a flow-on effect among Russian citizens too. In an interview with an owner of a chain of beauty salons in St Petersburg, Russian woman Lalya Sadykova said the approval around Putin is diminishing.

“Those who shout that Putin is great and bravo to him are no longer shouting as loud,” she told the New York Times.

“They’re in shock from what is happening, from how quickly prices are changing and how suppliers are stopping deliveries.”

People participate in anti-war protest, in Saint Petersburg

Loss of life on par with Afghanistan

The human cost of life from the four days since Russia’s invasion has also been sobering.

As of February 27, numbers from Ukraine’s Defence Ministry estimate 4300 Russian troops have died following the invasion, with the Kremlin also losing 27 planes, 26 helicopters, 146 tanks and 706 armoured personnel carriers.

While the numbers still need to be confirmed, the figures have been compared to the 2401 death toll recorded by the US military during the war in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2021.

Amid the invasion, reports have also alleged that the military has pressured conscripts into fighting. While mandatory conscription requires men aged 18 to 27 to serve one year of active military duty, some families of conscripts say their children were forced to sign contracts which would see them fight in the invasion, local media outlet Meduza reports.

“Mothers are telling us that their sons have been calling them and saying they’re being forced to sign contracts. We believe it’s wrong to force a conscript to become a contract soldier,” said Olga Larkina, the director of Russia’s Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers.

“The parents who have gotten in touch have told us their sons were just taken by military officers, stamped, and that’s it — now they’re contract soldiers.”

Protesters in Yekaterinburg chant “No to war!” (via @meduzaproject). pic.twitter.com/8l9mJg3EA2

— Eilish Hart (@EilishHart) February 24, 2022

With peace talks between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Mr Putin on Monday failing to provide any concrete outcome, the anti-war sentiment in Russia remains small but mighty.

Independent human rights body, OVD-Info reports more than 5900 people have been detained in anti-war demonstrations, with authorities making more than 2000 arrests. This is despite protesting carrying severe punishments like prison sentences.

Also telling was the Twitter hashtag that trended on the day Mr Putin announced Russia’s pending invasion into the Ukraine.

Writing on Twitter, Moscow-based, UK blogger Jonny Tickle said it represented how “normal Russians” responded the attack.

“If you’re wondering what many normal Russians think about today’s events, look at the current number one trend in Moscow: #NoToWar.”