Figures show Sweden suffered fewer deaths than neighbours despite anti-lockdown stance

It shocked the world with its bold, risky Covid strategy – but now, it seems like this nation’s controversial pandemic plan has paid off.

As most of the world ground to a halt as the deadly Covid-19 pandemic took hold, Sweden’s defiant stance left many stunned.

While most countries rushed to introduce lockdowns and harsh restrictions in a desperate attempt to reduce transmission and deaths, the Nordic nation refused to follow suit.

Instead, in March 2020, the government adopted an unorthodox approach, forgoing lockdowns, travel bans, curfews and mandatory face mask rules and instead allowing individuals decide how to personally handle the risk.

As a result, while people were encouraged to work from home if possible and cut down on travel, it was an optional suggestion only, and public venues like bars and restaurants, museums and theatres remained open.

Authorities were gambling on the hope that the herd immunity strategy would ultimately pay off, despite being one of just a handful of nations adopting the risky approach.

At first, cases exploded, but by July, daily numbers began falling significantly, as did the death toll.

Then, the second wave hit.

Life in Sweden continued as normal in 2020, despite the deadly pandemic. Picture: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP

Cases began to skyrocket once again, and by late December 2020 it had one of the highest death counts on the continent, with 8300 fatalities out of a population of just 10 million. Sweden’s unique stance was branded a failure, with Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf that month telling local media the country had made a grave error, as the nation mourned and the health system buckled.

“I think we have failed. We have a large number who have died and that is terrible. It is something we all suffer with,” he said.

“You think of all the family members who have not been able to say goodbye to their deceased family members.

“I think it is a heavy and traumatic experience not to be able to say a warm goodbye. The Swedish people have suffered enormously in difficult conditions.”

For a while, the situation grew so dire that the country did finally but briefly introduce some Covid restrictions.

But now, almost two years into the Covid pandemic, the statistics paint a curious picture.

The latest numbers show Sweden has now had fewer deaths than most other European nations, with lower infection rates and a thriving economy to boot.

Sweden defies the odds

According to the Our World in Data project at the University of Oxford, over the course of the pandemic, Sweden has had close to 1500 fatalities per million people – while the European average stands at 1800.

The UK figure is far worse at 2100 despite three countrywide lockdowns, while Belgium and Italy’s numbers are both above 2000.

Sweden's death toll is lower than many other European nations. Picture: Our World in Data

Sweden is also beating other European nations when it comes to the daily number of confirmed cases. Picture: Our World in Data

While Sweden’s death toll is significantly higher than neighbours Denmark, Norway and Finland – as well as Australia – it is much lower than those of most European nations, including Belgium, Italy, Poland, Portugal, France and Greece.

Sweden also ranks 21 out of 31 European nations when it comes to excess mortality stands, with 5 per cent more deaths than expected since last March, and has an infection rate of 100 per million, again lower than most neighbours that pursued a lockdown strategy.

The OECD also reported earlier this year that the Swedish economy is “rebounding”, with projected GDP growth close to 4 per cent in 2021 and 3.5 per cent in 2022.

Unemployment is expected to decline gradually, and inflation is set to remain below the 2 per cent target throughout 2021 and 2022, although it still trails behind its Nordic cousins economically.

Sweden’s health system buckled during its second wave, but has a lower death toll than most of Europe. Picture: Johan Nilsson/TT News Agency/AFP

With the pandemic still far from over, it is likely too early to decide whether Sweden’s strategy was the right one – or not.

But in a recent opinion piece for Bloomberg, Justin Fox sums up the Swedish situation.

“In sum, Sweden stood out early in the pandemic for its public-health policies, but not so much since last fall,” he writes.

“On the whole, it doesn’t look especially remarkable for either its success or failure in combating Covid-19 or its economic performance over the past year-and-a-half.

“Maybe it’s time to retire its status as a pandemic lightning rod.”