Coronavirus Australia: Warning over possible ‘second wave’ of COVID-19

There are concerns relaxing social distancing restrictions too early could result in a second wave of COVID-19 sweeping through multiple countries.

Researchers have warned that relaxing strict new virus rules too early could result in a “second wave” of COVID-19 emerging.

A study published in The Lancet has found that if countries prematurely roll back social distancing and lockdown measures then it could lead to a second round of infections.

China has already started to lift travel restrictions and lockdown measures, with many officials concerned about how the decision will impact the spread of the virus.

Fears about increasing the spread of the virus were heightened when pictures emerged of thousands of people packed on pathways at a popular mountain range in the Anhui province after the restrictions were eased.

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Thousands of relieved citizens streamed out of China's Wuhan on April 8 after authorities lifted months of lockdown at the coronavirus epicentre. Picture: Noel Celis/AFP

Researchers Kathy Leung, Joseph T Wu, Di Liu and Gabriel M Leung found that a second wave of coronavirus “appears probable” if countries do not keep strict measures in place for long enough,

“The findings from our modelling impact assessment suggest that the comprehensive package of non-pharmaceutical interventions China undertook, including social distancing and population behavioural change, has substantially reduced transmissibility of COVID-19 across the country,” the researchers wrote.

“The daily number of local COVID-19 cases has dropped substantially to nearly zero in areas outside Hubei since late February; however, a second wave of COVID-19 transmission is possible because of viral reintroduction that has been exponentially increasing since March, 2020, as well as viral transmissibility that might rebound with the gradual resumption of economic activities, and thus normal levels of social mixing.”

There are concerns lifting restrictions too early could lead to a fresh wave of coronavirus cases. Picture: John Moore/Getty Images/AFP

An assessment of these findings and other similar studies, also published in The Lancet, noted the results of this research were “critical to governments globally”

“A study focused on the effects of extending or relaxing physical distancing control measures in Wuhan has suggested that if the measures [were] gradually relaxed in March, a second wave of cases might occur in the northern hemisphere mid-summer,” the article said.

“Country-specific models of the effects of travel restrictions and social distancing, as well as the alternative strategies after the relaxation of these interventions, such as the use of face masks, temperature checks, and contact tracing, are now needed.”

These findings come just days after NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian flagged that the tough restrictions in place across the state may soon be able to be rolled back.

“We know that the restrictions are having an effect. But it takes us a couple of weeks to get the data through and for the health experts to be able to advise us,” she told reporters on Wednesday.

“So I don’t want to raise expectations, but at the same time, there could be a chance, if the health experts deem it appropriate for us, to look at some relaxations.”

Across Australia, the numbers of new coronavirus infections are coming down after social distancing measures were introduced during March.

Ms Berejiklian said the restrictions would be reviewed monthly.

“At this stage, the restrictions are having a positive impact on the number. Not just on new cases but also on us being able to contact existing cases and making sure that people are isolated,” she said.

“But if the advice in a couple of weeks is that there might be a couple of aspects that we can tweak to provide relief to our citizens, well then, we’ll take that advice.”

However, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly warned today that Australia was “not at the stage” to start rolling back restrictions.

He said though the country was flattening the curve, now is not the time to become “complacent” or change restrictions that have been put in place.

“Those same messages we put in place and recognising how disruptive it is for so many people’s lives, it’s very, very important to stay the course at the moment,” Professor Kelly said.

“It is not time to take the foot off the brake. And we need to really consider how to go to the next phase very carefully, and weigh up the pros and cons of all that. That will be our task in the coming weeks.”