UK will ‘definitely’ have third wave of COVID-19, expert warns

The UK’s top medical adviser has warned the nation will face a third wave of COVID-19, with chances it will ever be wiped out are “close to zero”.

The UK will “definitely” endure a third wave of COVID-19, the nation’s top medical adviser has warned, after declaring that the chances of ever wiping out the virus are “close to zero”.

During a sombre press conference today, England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, predicted a number of “bumps and twists on the road” ahead, including combating the increasing number of coronavirus variants, vaccine shortages and outbreaks in both schools and prisons.

“This is a sad day, really,” Prof Whitty said at a public health conference organised by the Local Government Association and Association of Directors of Public Health.

“The path from here on in does look better than the last year but there are going to be lots of bumps and twists on the road from here on in.

“There will definitely be another surge at some point, whether it’s before winter or in the next winter, we don’t know.

“Variants are going to cause problems, there will be stock-outs of vaccines and no doubt there will be multiple problems at a national level but also at a local level – school outbreaks, prison outbreaks, all the things that people are dealing with on a daily basis.”

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British chief medical officer for England Chris Whitty has warned the nation will “definitely” endure a third wave of COVID-19. Picture: Hannah McKay/Getty Images

Staff gather outside a hospital for a minute’s silence to reflect on the anniversary of the day the UK entered its first lockdown. Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies member Professor Calum Semple predicted a third wave of the virus will likely hit in the UK summer.

“The concern at present is that in countries where there’s less vaccination and a very strong third wave, that’s the perfect breeding ground for further variants of concern,” he said.

“So, at this point, Britain has got its act together, the concern is as this third wave is going on elsewhere, that will generate new variations.

“Even within Britain there is a likelihood of a third wave in potentially July and August time, when we do unlock society.”

At a separate press conference at Downing Street, marking the anniversary of the first lockdown, Prof Whitty delivered another dire verdict on the chances of the UK ever being COVID-free.

“I regret to say that I think the chances of eradicating this disease — which means getting rid of it absolutely everywhere — are as close to zero as makes no difference,” he said.

“Everyone agrees we can get COVID rates right down. That should be absolutely our aim, to get cases of people who die and have severe disease as close to zero as we can.

“If we can go further, who would say no? But I think if you talk to anybody who looks at this really seriously, who understands how infectious diseases work, I don’t think there’s anybody who thinks eliminating from the UK or eradicating globally for any long period of time is a realistic prospect at this point in time.”

The nation will likely see “recurrences of infection in winter”, chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance cautioned, adding COVID-19 would circulate as other viruses have for “thousands of years”.

“I think get the numbers as low as we can, don’t expect this is going to disappear,” he said.

“Expect that there will be recurrences of infections, particularly in the winter and that this will become a circulating virus as others have done over thousands of years — and I think this is unfortunately what we have.

“I think the chance of eradication, true eradication, i.e. zero, are in themselves close to zero.”

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The UK isn’t alone in the potential threat it faces of another wave: as virus variants present themselves in “a growing proportion” of cases across the US, it too could see “another avoidable surge” of the virus if mitigation efforts go out the window, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned yesterday.

“The continued relaxation of prevention measures while cases are still high, and while concerning variants are spreading rapidly throughout the United States, is a serious threat to the progress we have made as a nation,” Dr Rochelle Walensky said during a White House press briefing.

Two newly identified variants, B. 1427 and B. 1429, are estimated to make up about 52 per cent of coronavirus cases in California, 41 per cent in Nevada and 25 per cent in Arizona.

“I get it – we all want to return to our everyday activities and spend time with our family, friends, and loved ones, but we must find the fortitude to hang in there for just a little bit longer,” Dr Walensky said, adding that America is “at a critical point in this pandemic”.

“We as a country must decide which path we are going to take. We must act now.

“I am worried that if we don’t take the right actions now, we will have another avoidable surge, just as we are seeing in Europe right now and just as we are so aggressively scaling up vaccination.”