‘Everything to lose’: Jacinda Ardern’s crown may be about to slip

New Zealand has been one of the best performing nations when it comes to Covid. But that may be about to change and it could spell trouble for Jacinda Ardern.

New Zealand has long been considered one of the best performing nations on the planet when it comes to dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.

On any given day, most countries around the world rack up more cases and deaths from the virus than the Pacific nation has had in the entire pandemic.

It has recorded just 4659 infections and 28 deaths from the disease over the course of the last 18 months, but over the past few weeks there has been a seismic shift in the direction the nation is headed.

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had consistently praised her “team of five million” as the nation, aided by its sparse population and geographical isolation, kept the virus at bay.

Then came the Delta strain, that managed to penetrate the seemingly airtight defence of the New Zealand border and the short, sharp lockdowns Kiwis have become accustomed to.

Now, the country is struggling to contain its current Delta outbreak, with 95 cases reported over the weekend, another 35 on Monday and a further 45 on Tuesday.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has been lauded for her pandemic response. Picture: Kerry Marshall/Getty Images

And, although the vaccination rate is picking up from a slow start, there are grave fears about what will happen if the virus takes hold in the way it has in parts of Australia.

Ms Ardern had been popular even before New Zealand’s successful management of the virus in the months gone by, but her Covid response had cemented her position.

She was re-elected in a landslide victory in October, with Labor securing 50 per cent of the vote and enough seats to form government on its own.

But now she and her nation are headed into uncharted territory.

Steering into a different Covid strategy

Not long after Delta made a foothold in the nation at the beginning of the month, Ms Ardern revealed New Zealand would be taking a radically new direction.

She said it was time the country transitioned away from the elimination strategy that had made it so successful in the past.

“Elimination was important because we didn’t have vaccines. Now we do, so we can begin to change the way we do things,” she said.

“We need to continue to contain and control the virus as much as possible while we make our transition from a place where we only use heavy restrictions to a place where we use vaccines and everyday public health measures.

“This is a change in approach we were always going to make over time. Our Delta outbreak has accelerated that transition.”

It was a change that took many in New Zealand by surprise, and it was a huge gamble for Ms Ardern.

The small nation is now dealing with a Delta outbreak. Picture: Hannah Peters/Getty Images

Fears over what is to come for New Zealanders

Although Kiwis knew they couldn’t live cut off from the world forever, the pace of the shift has alarmed many of them and stoked fears about what will happen in the coming weeks and months.

Of particular concern is what will happen to the nation’s Māori and Pacific New Zealanders – with some warning of a “modern genocide” by reopening the country too quickly amid a Delta outbreak.

Professor of politics at Massey University Richard Shaw told news.com.au that the nation has found itself in a “weird” position where it could “get the really horrible stuff at the end of the pandemic rather than the beginning”.

“People are in the process of preparing themselves for what’s to come because until a few weeks ago the whole thing was about elimination and that was working for us,” he said.

“It was almost as if Covid didn’t exist for us over the past 18 months.”

He said the Prime Minister didn’t prepare Kiwis for the change in direction because the previous strategy worked so well – but now there is a sense of “concern and anxiety” across the nation.

“It’s possible that New Zealanders will get off their arses and get vaccinated, and the outcome won’t be too bad, but there are some terrible [vaccination] rates in some sections of the community so we will be really vulnerable,” he said. “We are entering a really risky period.”

He said vaccine rate among Indigenous communities, in particular, was worryingly low.

A debate is raging in New Zealand about why the uptake is so slow in these communities, but time is not on their side.

The vaccine rate is picking up in New Zealand. Picture: Phil Walter/Getty Images

Maori population at risk

Despite the fact that Māori and Pacific New Zealanders make up less than 30 per cent of the total population, they are making up the lion’s share of the nation’s current cases and hospitalisations.

“Māori are now presenting over half of daily cases. We need to be placed back into a level that will break the circuit of this outbreak for Māori,” co-leader of the Māori party Debbie Ngarewa-Packer said on Monday.

“If the government is prepared to open the borders as soon as our country is 90 per cent vaccinated, they are willingly holding Māori up to be the sacrificial lambs. It is a modern form of genocide.”

In the wider community, the vaccine rate has picked up quickly from a slow start.

As of Tuesday morning, 56.7 per cent of New Zealand’s eligible population had received two doses of a Covid vaccine, not far behind Australia’s 62.4 per cent. And 82 per cent have had their first dose.

However, there are concerns about the state of the nation’s hospital system.

“There’s not a hell of a lot of spare capacity in the system, and there’s been a longstanding problem with staff shortages,” said Prof Shaw. “It’s not Labor’s fault – this has been going on for years – but they will be blamed if things go wrong and there are a great number of deaths.

“If the health system is overwhelmed then it would significantly damage Jacinda Arderns’s popularity and her party.”

Ms Ardern remains popular in New Zealand. Picture: Mark Mitchell/Pool/Getty Images

He said that, for Ms Ardern, the political risks from opening up far outweigh any benefits.

However, Prof Shaw said that even if Delta hits New Zealand hard, resulting in a high number of deaths and hospitalisations, Ms Ardern may still be popular.

“She has nothing more to gain and everything to lose because the risks are more significant than anything she’s faced before, he said.

“I wouldn’t be assuming this means the ends of the golden weather for the Prime Minister and her party.

“She already has an incredibly high level of popularity so she can afford to lose some. She’s got stuff to draw on, so many people will cut her a certain amount of slack.”