Epidemiologist’s major Covid-19 prediction for 2022

One of the world’s top epidemiologists has made a promising prediction for how Covid-19 will play out in Australia this year, as Omicron runs rampant.

Aussies have been offered a promising prediction for the future response to Covid-19, with Omicron currently running rampant across the country.

Taiwan’s former vice-president and Johns Hopkins-trained epidemiologist Chen Chien-jen has predicted the anxiety surrounding Covid-19 will likely drop by the middle of the year for those in highly vaccinated areas.

He told The Australian that by “June or July” people in areas such as Australia, Taiwan, Japan, Europe and North America will start “turning down our worry about Covid-19”.

Professor Chen has been praised for playing a key role in developing and implementing Taiwan’s strong Covid response during his time as the country’s vice president.

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Taiwanese Professor Chen Chien-jen, is Taiwan’s former vice president. Picture- Rosaline Walters

He has been lauded as the country’s “SARS hero” and their “weapon against corona­virus”.

Taiwan has been one of the most successful countries at controlling the virus, with cases kept low despite never introducing harsh citywide or countrywide lockdown.

Prof Chen these type of harsh restrictions can result in “fatigue” among citizens, with the country instead implementing “practised intervention”.

This strategy focused on top-tier contact tracing and introducing early measures such as face masks, a strong hotel quarantine regime and being transparent with the public about the Covid-19 situation.

“I always said the successful containment of Covid-19 in Taiwan was based on two things: good governance and good citizenship,” Prof Chen told The Australian.

Now, the epidemiologist has said the way people perceive Covid is changing.

“Covid is not the Covid of before. We already have good defences,” he said.

Taiwan has been hugely successful in controlling the Covid-19 virus. Picture: Lam Yik Fei/Getty Images

More than 73 per cent of Taiwan’s population is now fully vaccinated, with Prof Chen telling President Tsai Ing-wen these high rates mean many of the country’s Covid restrictions can begin to relax.

While Australia is currently in a very different position, with the country confirming more than 34,000 new Covid cases on Thursday.

However, Prof Chen said he still believes Australia can come out the other side of the outbreak.

“The reason for that is your vaccination rate is high,” he said.

Plan to ‘end Covid as a global health emergency’

It’s been more than two years since the Covid-19 pandemic began and many people are itching to know when it will end.

This week the World Health Organisation (WHO) provided some hope that the worst of the pandemic could soon pass, revealing a six-step plan that could “end Covid-19 as a global health emergency” before the end of 2022.

While addressing an executive board meeting on Monday, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said there were some key strategies that could see the most serious phase of the pandemic ended.

“There are different scenarios for how the pandemic could play out and how the acute phase could end. But it’s dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant or that we are in the endgame,” Dr Tedros said.

“On the contrary, globally, the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge.”

He outlined six key targets that need to be met if we want to move past the worst of the pandemic.

One of the steps is having 70 per cent of the population of every country in the world fully vaccinated, with a focus on the most at-risk groups.

Dr Tedros said there would be “no path out” of the pandemic unless this target is achieved by the middle of the year.

Other important strategies in ending Covid as a global health emergency include reducing mortality rates, boosting testing and the use of public health measures.

“It means reducing mortality through strong clinical management, beginning with primary health care, and equitable access to diagnostics, oxygen and antivirals at the point of care,” Dr Tedros said.

“It means boosting testing and sequencing rates globally to track the virus closely and monitor the emergence of new variants.

“It means the ability to calibrate the use of public health and social measures when needed.”

Restoring and sustaining essential health services, along with learning critical lessons and coming up with new solutions as quickly as possible are other key factors.

Dr Tedros said these goals can only be achieved through “engaged and empowered communities, sustained financing, a focus on equity, and research and innovation”.

“We simply can’t end the emergency phase of the pandemic unless we bridge this gap,” he said.

“But we can bridge it, and we are making progress.”