CDC Director Robert Redfield issues grim warning about COVID deaths in next 60-90 days
Americans have been warned to expect an unprecedented level of death in the coming months, despite progress on the race to distribute a vaccine.
Each day for the next three months, the coronavirus is going to kill more people in the United States than died in the 9/11 terror attacks.
That was the grim warning late this week from Dr Robert Redfield, head of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
“We are in the time frame now that, probably for the next 60-90 days, we’re going to have more deaths per day than we had at 9/11 or we had at Pearl Harbour,” Dr Redfield told an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations.
The terror attacks on September 11, 2001 killed 2977 people. Japan’s surprise strike on Pearl Harbour in 1941 killed 2403, and prompted America’s entry into World War II.
If the US averages 3000 deaths per day for the next two months, that would mean another 180,000 dead by mid-February. Extend it to three months and we’re talking about 270,000 deaths by mid-March.
That last number would nearly double the country’s current death toll, which stands at 292,000 and is already the worst in the world by far.
According to the COVID Tracking Project, the US is currently averaging 205,000 new cases each day and 2300 deaths.
Both numbers continue to rise sharply. It has exceeded 3000 deaths on each of the last two days. Meanwhile, 107,000 Americans are hospitalised.
These figures are all the highest they have ever been, and are worse than they were at the respective peaks of the country’s first two waves.
For example, daily infections only reached a high of 35,000 during the first wave in April.
COVID Exit Strategy, which tracks the situation in each of America’s 50 states, reports 49 are suffering from “uncontrolled” spread of the virus. The one exception is Hawaii.
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President Donald Trump remains exclusively focused on making vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna available to the public, rather than trying to contain any further spread of the virus.
Mr Trump took a break from tweeting about his election defeat on Tuesday to hold an event highlighting Operation Warp Speed, his administration’s program designed to accelerate the development and distribution of COVID vaccines.
That program has been a success so far. It enabled companies like Pfizer to invest heavily in development, knowing there would be a guaranteed pay-off afterwards if they were able to create an effective vaccine.
The President spent most of his statement at Tuesday’s event praising the speed at which the vaccines had been developed.
“We’re here to discuss a monumental national achievement. From the instant the coronavirus invaded our shores, we raced into action to develop a safe and effective vaccine at breakneck speed,” he said.
“We were able to get things done at a level that nobody has ever seen before. The gold standard vaccine has been done in less than nine months.
“We think by spring, we’re going to be in a position that nobody would have believed possible just a few months ago. Amazing, really amazing. They say it’s somewhat of a miracle, and I think it’s true.
“When America is faced with a challenge, we come through, and we always come through to overcome every hardship and surmount every obstacle. And I think you’ll be seeing that over the next few months. The numbers should skyrocket downward.”
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There was more good news regarding the Pfizer vaccine yesterday, as an advisory committee for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommended its immediate approval.
The FDA now says it’s working “rapidly” towards issuing an emergency use authorisation.
(Mr Trump doesn’t think it is moving rapidly enough, as this tweet ordering the FDA to “get the dam vaccines out” makes pretty clear).
While my pushing the money drenched but heavily bureaucratic @US_FDA saved five years in the approval of NUMEROUS great new vaccines, it is still a big, old, slow turtle. Get the dam vaccines out NOW, Dr. Hahn @SteveFDA. Stop playing games and start saving lives!!!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 11, 2020
Hopefully, tens of millions of doses can be distributed to frontline health care workers and vulnerable populations before the end of December.
However, we are still months away from any vaccine being available to the broader American public. And that intervening period is where the danger lies.
“The reality is the vaccine approval this week’s not going to really impact that, I think, to any degree for the next 60 days,” Dr Redfield said this week, referring to the daily death toll.
The current spike in cases and deaths comes after Thanksgiving in late November, when millions of Americans crossed the country to visit their families, potentially spreading the virus with them. Christmas is coming up, and it presents the same concerns.
We have also entered winter, which means people will be cooped up inside where the virus is transmitted more easily.
“It’s clearly a success, this vaccine. I’m wondering, though, what your message is to the American people, given all the increasing cases right now, about what they should do over Christmas and the hardship that they’re all facing as this virus does get worse?” a reporter asked Mr Trump on Tuesday.
“Yeah, well, the CDC puts out their guidelines and they’re very important guidelines. But I think this, I think that the vaccine was our goal. That was number one, because it was the way it ends,” the President responded.
“Plus, you do have an immunity. You develop immunity over a period of time. And I hear we’re close to 15 per cent. I’m hearing that. And that is terrific. That’s a very powerful vaccine in itself. And just, tremendous progress has been made.
“One of the reasons we do show so many – and I say this, and I’ve been saying it for a long time – is because of the fact that we have 200 million tests.”
The US has indeed conducted about 213 million coronavirus tests.
However, Mr Trump’s recurring theory that the country only has so many confirmed infections because it does so much testing is, to be frank, nonsense.
How do we know that? I’ll give you three simple reasons.
One, infections have risen faster than the number of tests conducted. Two, the positivity rate from those tests has risen from 4 per cent in October to 11.1 per cent now. Three, the massive spike in hospitalisations is not linked to testing – these people are in hospital because they require treatment, not just because they tested positive.
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Medical experts are optimistic about the effect the vaccines will have on America’s epidemic, once distributed.
They do not share Mr Trump’s indifference to the intervening months.
Dr Scott Gotlieb, a Pfizer board member and former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, spoke to the editorial board of USA Today this week.
“I think it’s going to get a lot worse before things start to improve. The hardest four to six weeks are ahead of us,” Dr Gotlieb warned.
“I think we’re going to see daily new infections continue to increase for the next four weeks, and then we won’t hit peak hospitalisations until probably six weeks, maybe mid-January.
“We could see upwards of 150,000-175,000 people hospitalised when we hit the peak, and maybe upwards of 40,000-50,000 people in the ICU. That’s going to really press the health care system.”
He predicted the US death toll could hit 400,000 towards the end of January, followed by a dramatic “collapse” in the virus’s spread around March.
“The peak is going to be larger than we anticipated, in large part because we haven’t taken any real policy response,” he explained.
“When you think about these kinds of epidemics, you always expect there to be a compensatory change in behaviour and policy. As things get worse, people start to stay home or they wear masks more. Businesses take more precautions, policymakers step in.
“I think that sort of response to this has been much slower than I would have anticipated.”
Dr Leana Wen, an emergency room physician and former city health commissioner in Baltimore, described the current toll of 3000 deaths each day as a “horrific threshold”.
“This was unimaginable even a few months ago,” Dr Wen said.
“The numbers will keep climbing. And remember, we are just beginning to see the effects of the Thanksgiving surge.”
“We could prevent so much of this,” Dr Eric Topol said last night.
“Over 3000 deaths again today. Over 107,000 hospitalised. Over 21,000 in the ICU. Over 214,000 new confirmed infections.
“But it isn’t happening, because we have worse than no national leadership and no plan. Unconscionable.”
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