Risk of major coronavirus outbreak at highest level yet, leading epidemiologist says

A leading expert has warned that Australia isn’t out of the woods yet and that the “virus will win” as we socialise more.

Australia is at its highest risk of experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic over a year ago, a leading epidemiologist has warned in a bleak prediction.

Professor James McCaw, an epidemiologist and mathematical biologist with the University of Melbourne, said the “virus will win” with coronavirus cases expected to escape through quarantine hotels on a monthly basis.

“We will expect incursions at least once a month and more often. And while we mix more socially, the chance of one of those taking hold goes up very quickly,” he said, Nine Newspapers reported.

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Drawn up syringes containing the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines at the Claremont Showgrounds COVID-19 Vaccination Clinic in Perth. Picture: Paul Kane/Getty Images

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Despite this scary outlook – largely brought about by the more contagious B117 strain first detected in Britain – Prof McCaw said vaccination against the virus will prevent an outbreak from having a “disastrous impact”.

Prof McCaw, who leads a research team providing coronavirus modelling to the Federal Government, said, it was “absolutely inevitable” the virus would spread as Australians mix more socially.

“The (B117) strain is more transmissible and it is more severe, and the severity comes to lower age groups,” he added.

Prof McCaw said vaccinations were the “game-changer” and would help to prevent the situation from spiralling out of control.

“The virus will win. But it won’t have a devastating impact if we are vaccinated,” he said.

Prof McCaw said there needed to be improvements to Australia’s quarantine hotel system but a wide take-up of vaccinations would also be needed to see a significant improvement.

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Registered nurse Tracey Morris gives the COVID-19 AstraZeneca jab to WA Premier Mark McGowan. Picture: Colin Murty The Australian

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“It would be unwise to think that the risk of this virus has gone once we have vaccinated (just) the vulnerable,” he said.

“Especially given that we would expect the B117 variant to come in. We could easily have a situation where our hospital system was overwhelmed with lots and lots of sick young adults.”

This week, NSW’s Health COVID-19 surveillance report revealed that six overseas travellers who reported they were fully vaccinated have tested positive for the virus while in hotel quarantine.

It said the six cases in quarantine hotels tested positive over four weeks ending on May 1, despite reporting they were vaccinated prior to arriving in Australia.

NSW Health noted all six may have contracted the potentially deadly virus prior to their vaccination becoming fully effective.

A total of 2.5 million Australians have received their first dose of the coronavirus vaccine, according to Federal Government figures.

Slacks Creek respiratory clinic registered nurse Luna Reisenbauer gives the AstraZeneca jab to Clyde Riches, 69. Picture: Nigel Hallett

However, this falls well below the government’s target of having the jab administered to four million adults by the end of March.

Last month, Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan told a press conference the situation was “very real”, the pandemic “will not be going away this year” and expressed his frustration with the Federal Government at its previous refusal to cut international arrivals into WA to “crush” the spread of COVID-19 – something he’d been requesting for a month.

“Unfortunately, this pandemic will not be going away this year,” Mr McGowan said.

“And I need to do everything possible to keep our states safe and prevent community transmission.

“The situation for us right now remains very real. The new case of community transmission highlights how vital this temporary lockdown is.

“We need to give our contact tracers the best chance possible at identifying where these positive cases went and who may have been exposed.”