Risk of dying from AstraZeneca vaccine blood clots exposed

Concerned about getting the AstraZeneca vaccine? These graphics will help you weigh up the risk of dying from blood clots versus other risks.

As mixed messaging about AstraZeneca vaccine access reaches fever pitch this week, new graphics have emerged comparing the risk of death from the vaccine to other scenarios.

The data compares the risk of death from developing the rare blood-clotting syndrome TTS after having the AZ jab against other activities.

The graph shows the risk of dying from TTS after having the vaccine is 0.5 in one million or one in two million.

The ABS figures shows the risk of dying in a car accident is significantly higher, at 28 in one million, while the risk of being killed by another person is also far higher, at 16 in one million.

The likelihood of drowning or dying in a pedestrian accident stands at eight in one million, which is also much higher than the AZ vaccine risk.

When compared to other adventure activities, the risk of dying from TTS is four times less than dying in a bungee jumping accident.

The risk associated with other common activities such as rock climbing, marathon running, scuba diving and mountain climbing is also significantly higher, the data shows.

On the topic of risk, La Trobe University Associate Professor Hassan Vally wrote in The Conversation that errors in the way we perceive risks, known as cognitive biases, make us perceive events as being much more likely than they actually are.

In June, ATAGI updated its guidelines regarding the AZ vaccine. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

“This can lead us to make decisions, such as not having a vaccine that could potentially save our life. And the misperception of the likelihood of TTS is one of the main reasons many are hesitant about receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine,” he wrote.

“When you fully appreciate how small the risk of TTS is, the decision to have the AstraZeneca vaccine to protect yourself and others becomes a much easier one to make.”

Political leaders and health officials have become involved in a public stoush over AZ availability this week after Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s controversial announcement to open up the AZ shot to people under 40.

Vaccination expert Professor Julie Leask told Sunrise on Thursday that mixed messaging surrounding the vaccine was not helpful.

“We can use these risk comparisons but we don’t want to use these comparisons to tell people how they should feel about risk,” she said.

“We want to help them understand the magnitude or a risk, but also what to look out for in terms of the early signs of the blood clots because it’s rare but it’s a serious outcome and people are going to hospital and getting sick.”

Vaccine hesitancy has plagued the rollout of the AZ vaccine. Picture: Mark Stewart

Last month, ATAGI updated its guidelines regarding the AZ vaccine, with Pfizer the preferred vaccine for people aged under 60.

However, the PM has copped criticism this week after going against health advice to open up the vaccine to younger age groups, after consultation with their GP.

Professor Leask urged people in younger age groups who were considering the AZ vaccine to discuss their situation with their doctor.

“Essentially though we’ve got a situation where we were given a nuanced recommendation from ATAGI that didn’t ban people from having AstraZeneca under 60 but allowed them to make a decision based on risk and benefit,” she said.

“And that’s where the problem is, it’s different ways of interpreting nuanced information where there’s no right answer to this because we’re weighing risk and benefit.”