NSW may have hit its Omicron peak, leading epidemiologist says

NSW may have finally reached the peak of its Omicron outbreak, with other states and territories soon to follow, a leading epidemiologist has claimed.

A leading epidemiologist has claimed NSW has likely reached the peak of its Omicron outbreak, with other states and territories following closely behind.

Covid-19 cases have exploded across the country in recent weeks, with previous daily infection records being consistently smashed.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely said the outbreaks across each state and territory are out of sequence at the moment.

“NSW, I think, is at the peak and starting to come down or about to, Victoria is about to get to the peak, ACT is about to get to the peak,” he told Sunrise this morning.

“Then you have got Tasmania, South Australia, Queensland all coming up there in third place if you like. They will peak in about a week to two weeks time.”

Epidemiologist Tony Blakely believes NSW may have hit the peak of its latest outbreak. Picture: Alex Coppel

However, Prof Blakely warned that hospitalisations would likely continue to rise weeks after the peaks of the different outbreaks have passed.

“All of these peaks I’m talking about are infections and then two weeks later you get the peak in hospitalisations,” he explained.

“So in NSW we are expecting to see the hospitalisations peak at about the 20th to 25th of January and it will unfortunately peak high because measures were not put in place early enough in NSW.”

Today, NSW confirmed 25,870 Covid cases, compared to the 20,293 cases recorded the previous day.

In Victoria there were 37,994 cases confirmed today, up from the 34,808 infections on Monday.

Yesterday, Queensland confirmed 9581 new Covid-19 cases, down from 18,000 infections recorded on Sunday.

On Monday, the ACT confirmed 938 new cases, a slight drop from the 1039 cases recorded the previous day.

Tasmania recorded 1218 new Covid cases yesterday, down from the 1406 infections confirmed on Sunday.

South Australia confirmed 4024 new cases on Monday, compared to 4506 cases the previous day.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet. Picture: Dylan Robinson

Health workers conduct Covid-19 testing at the Mosman Douglas-Hanly Moir Pathology Drive-Through clinic in Sydney. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Bianca De Marchi

Prof Blakely also noted that the Delta variant was still circulating across the country, claiming about 10 to 20 per cent of Covid cases in Victoria and NSW were the Delta strain.

“It will be interesting to see whether Delta gets fully displaced by Omicron or if it stays at that same level,” he said.

“Whatever happens, in about six weeks to two months time most of Australia, with WA being the exception and possibly the Northern Territory, will be down at much lower levels and will be bubbling along.

“Whether it is remnant Omicron, whether there was still a bit of Delta or if there is a new variant I’m not quite sure, but we will go into that far more resilient, highly vaccinated and boosted.”

NSW case numbers a clear ‘underestimate’

NSW Covid-19 case numbers have been dropping in recent days, but so have PCR testing rates.

This is due the government directing residents to rely more heavily on rapid antigen tests, in order to take the pressure of the PCR testing sites.

As NSW does not yet have a system in place for residents to report positive rapid antigen tests, it means thousands of cases are likely going unrecorded.

“That (case number) clearly is an underestimate as people are moving and transitioning to rapid antigen testing,” NSW chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant said.

Queensland and Victoria are also relying more heavily on rapid antigen tests, however, both states have introduced a system that allows those who receive a positive test at home to record their result with health authorities.

It is understood the NSW government is working on a similar system, which would see reporting positive rapid antigen tests become mandatory.

This system is due to be in place later this week.

Health Minister Brad Hazzard told The Sydney Morning Herald that the health department has sough advice from the Crown Solicitor’s Office over mandatory reporting of rapid antigen tests.

“It comes with the added benefit that it might also open the door to federal financial assistance if you’re off work for the week. The bottom line is it is a must-do, even if there is no fine,” he said.

“At the end of the day, it’s an obligation on all of us to make sure that we log in to the Service NSW app, particularly as it will give a clear picture of how the virus is moving through the community.”