How NSW and Victoria plan to exit lockdown

As vaccine uptake continues to surge across the country, here is what the pathway to freedom looks like in NSW and Victoria.

As vaccine uptake surges across Australia, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and her Victorian counterpart Daniel Andrews are beginning to lay out what life after lockdown will look like for their respective states, once the national targets of 70 per cent fully vaccinated are reached.

For weeks, Ms Berejiklian has fronted her daily updates and urged residents to look toward the future, when “we have the settings in place to live with Covid indefinitely until the virus leaves the planet” and the majority of the population is protected against the virus – and it’s a message Mr Andrews has taken up in recent days as well.

“All the conversations that I’ve had with the Prime Minister suggests that the nation will continue to move forward. I feel that Victoria is perhaps turning the corner in how they are dealing with Covid in terms of accepting what the Delta strain is like,” Ms Berejiklian told reporters this week.

“Every state is going to have to accept that you cannot live in a bubble forever, your citizens will want to travel interstate, your business would want to go interstate, citizens will want to go overseas, so if not at 80 per cent double dose which is what our national plan says, then when?”

From when restrictions will end to what freedoms the fully-vaccinated will enjoy in the near future, here’s everything you need to know about Victoria and NSW’s lockdown exit plans.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Picture: Bianca De Marchi/NCA NewsWire

When will NSW’s lockdown end?

In NSW, the targets for ending lockdown — set by Gladys Berejiklian and chief health officer Kerry Chant — look a little different.

The Premier announced the first round of eased rules when the state hit its milestone of six million vaccinations last week.

From September 13, fully vaccinated residents will be allowed to gather outdoors (in a public space, not somebody’s backyard) with up to five people (including children). These gatherings must take place in a person’s LGA or within five kilometres of their home, and with other fully-vaccinated adults.

If you’re a fully vaccinated resident in an LGA of concern, you can leave your home for an hour of recreation every day — like for a picnic — but only with other fully-vaccinated members of your own household and within five kilometres of your home.

The real fun, Ms Berejiklian has repeatedly said, starts in mid-October — by which point NSW is expected to achieve the 70 per cent milestone of fully-vaccinated eligible residents, and pubs, restaurants, stadiums and personal care services like hairdressers could reopen to them.

“Whether it is attending a public event or having a drink, if you are fully vaccinated and the state has hit its 70 per cent double dose target, please expect to do all of those things we have been missing for too long,” the Premier told reporters this week.

“Obviously NSW always takes a responsible approach, but the national plan does say at 70 per cent double-dose vaccination that you can expect to go out and have a meal, you can expect to attend a public event, you can expect to go and get services that you can’t expect now.”

She also called on businesses to “start dusting off your Covid safety plan”.

“Make sure your employees are vaccinated so we can get back to life at 70 per cent double-dose vaccination, which we anticipate will happen somewhere around the middle of October,” she said.

“That’s the date we’re working towards. Initially it was the end of October but because of the rates we’re seeing people come forward, that could be as early as mid-October.”

The new freedoms may not apply in Covid-hotspot LGAs, Ms Berejiklian has warned, “but no matter where you live, life will be much, much better, much freer, as long as you’re vaccinated [when we reach] 70 per cent”.

NSW is also planning to allow international travel when the state reaches 80 per cent double vaccination, likely in November, and home quarantine for returning travellers will be “a definite”, Ms Berejiklian said.

When will Victoria’s lockdown end?

Daniel Andrews confirmed on Wednesday that almost all of the current restrictions will remain in place until 70 per cent of Victoria’s eligible residents have received at least one vaccine dose — which authorities expect will be around September 23 – though could be sooner if vaccine uptake continues on its current trajectory.

“We will be able to make those changes that we announced the other day perhaps earlier,” Mr Andrews told reporters on Friday.

He said there may be other restrictions, such as recreational activity and industry settings that could also be eased when that vaccine target is reached.

“It will need to be modest because of the situation we are in but we will have more options once we reach 70 per cent first dose.”

As for regional Victoria — bar Shepparton — “we think we will be able to end the lockdown in the rest of regional Victoria next week”, Mr Andrews said.

“Exactly when, we’ll confirm as soon as we can.”

What restrictions could safely be lifted in Victoria now?

Chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, Catherine Bennett, explained that “any change in setting comes with some risk, but so too does waning compliance”.

“Adjusting what is asked of people when you transition from short circuit-breakers to longer responses is about sustaining the most important elements for as long as you can,” Professor Bennett told news.com.au.

“Some measures are about policing the basic rules of not mixing across households, such as curfews or the five kilometre rule, and it’s time to review these. Also, people could be allowed outdoor time for exercise or just sitting in the park — few will want to exercise for three hours a day, but people in units without outdoor space should be allowed to be outdoors as long as they are distancing.

“Golf and other outdoor fitness activities that can be solo or with members of [your] own household and contact-free could also resume.”

‘It’s time to review’ the five kilometre rule in Melbourne. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

So Victoria has to reach 70 per cent of first doses — what happens then?

Once 70 per cent of eligible Victorians have received their first jab, the five-kilometre radius for exercise and shopping will expend to 10 kilometres, and residents will be allowed to exercise for up to three hours each day.

Outdoor personal training will be permitted with up to two people, including a trainer, and outdoor communal gym equipment and skate parks will reopen.

Private inspections of unoccupied premises for end of lease or a new purchase will also be allowed, but only one household will be permitted to attend at a time.

“As we progressively get vaccinated, the impact of other transmission control measures will increase. We aren’t aiming to push case numbers to zero, it’s more about managing spread as we switch to more reliance on vaccine protection,” Prof Bennett said.

“Therefore, easing some restrictions will progressively be more possible. This will offset some of the harms of lockdown, and might keep people focused on the fundamental aspects of the control for longer, and so it may end up the safer option rather than leaving all restrictions in place.”

As “vaccination rates rise we will see fewer cases hospitalised, and once those numbers are low we will be using that as our main guiding metric”, she added.

“This might happen before 80 per cent fully vaccinated, but even if it takes that long we could be easing out of a softer lockdown in December. It all depends on how quickly people get vaccinated,” she said.

What about schools?

In Victoria, the government is yet to announce a plan for when students will head back — though there’s been a desperate public push for seniors to return before crucial exams begin in October.

On Wednesday, the Premier announced that from September 7, Year 11 and 12 students would get priority access to the vaccine through the state government’s hubs, where they would receive one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

Mr Andrews said it was hoped the majority of senior students would be vaccinated with at least one dose by October 5 — the same date as the GAT — and has confirmed there will be no face-to-face learning for the remainder of Term 3.

Face-to-face learning will not resume in Victoria until at least Term 4. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Nikki Short

Prof Bennett said that “some face-to-face might be possible in Term 4, but schools would need to use the lead time to adapt, including modifying density limits in common indoor areas, staggered classes, moving more teaching outdoors and boosting ventilation”.

“At the moment, we have high rates of infection in kids because once the virus arrives in a household, everyone gets infected and kids outnumber adults on average,” she explained.

“Once we reduce the exposure within households with more parents vaccinated, then we can assess how that reduces infections in children, and the risk they might take the virus to school. We also need high rates of vaccination among teachers and other adults on campus.”

As for NSW, Greater Sydney students will begin returning to school from October 25, with kindergarten and Years 1 and 12.

Years 2, 6 and 11 will return on November 1, and the rest of the students will head back on November 8.

Students in regional NSW — where lockdown has been extended until at least September 10 — will return to face-to-face learning automatically if their area comes out of lockdown before October 25.