Doubt cast over Mark McGowan’s border plan as AMA president reveals more will be put at risk

Premier Mark McGowan delaying the border reopening is putting more vulnerable Australians in danger the longer he draws it out, AMA president Dr Omar Khorshid says.

People most at risk of dying from Covid-19 won’t be among the West Australians best protected against the virus when the state’s border eventually opens later this year.

Having been first in line for booster shots, elderly and vulnerable people, along with frontline workers, will have some of the lowest numbers of antibodies by the time WA reaches 80 per cent boosted by about May, Australian Medical Association President Dr Omar Khorshid said.

“Even though the bulk of the population – the mobile young people – may well be better protected because they will have their booster, those that need the boosters will be less protected,” Dr Khorshid told news.com.au.

“That’s a factor that has to be taken into account when determining the opening date.”

Additionally, WA hospitals will by that time be grappling with the annual spike in winter admissions, which last year all but entirely buckled the state’s health system – and there wasn’t even a Covid outbreak at the time.

Premier Mark McGowan’s reopening plan could put vulnerable West Australians in danger, according to the AMA president. Picture Jackson Flindell/The West Australian

“Last year our hospitals in WA were completely overwhelmed in winter, despite the fact there was no flu and no Covid. So the idea that we could have both viruses back into Perth, plus the usual overwhelming demand just due to winter, it’s pretty scary for our healthcare workers,” Dr Khorshid said.

He added that while Premier Mark McGowan had promised the health system was ready, the medical community in Western Australia vehemently disagreed.

“Even though he says it’s ready, it’s not ready. You can’t be ready basically, because we just don’t have the capacity. We can’t magically create more staff and beds,” Dr Khorshid said.

While Mr McGowan has historically been lauded for protecting residents from Covid by keeping the state closed, local and interstate opposition to his tact intensified when he backflipped on his February border reopening date.

Mr McGowan last week announced the border would no longer be coming down on February 5, and instead would remain intact until at least 80 per cent of the population received their third vaccination.

“It would be reckless and irresponsible to open up now, I can’t do it,” he said in a late-night media conference.

His stance was directly opposed by Dr Khorshid, who said the border should open as soon as possible, while vaccine effectiveness in vulnerable people was at its highest.

“The 80 or 90 per cent target, it’s not the advice of the national cabinet or the federal chief health officer, so I don’t know where that idea came from, or even if that’s a thing,” Dr Khorshid said.

Dr Omar Khorshid, Australian Medical Association President, has called on the WA government to open the state’s border as soon as possible. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gary Ramage

“It’s something that I think is simplistic, and not being entirely honest with the population.

“By going for that higher target is actually potentially making things worse.”

He added that while he hoped Mr McGowan’s plan had been based on his chief health officer’s modelling, that modelling had not been made publicly available and was therefore impossible for others to analyse.

As cases slowly rise across the state, it’s looking more likely it will have an outbreak similar in size to what has been observed in recent weeks in NSW, Victoria and Queensland, Dr Khorshid said.

“It may be that by the time a month has passed that we’ve already got hundreds or thousands of cases a day, in which case the borders become irrelevant in terms of the outbreak.”

He predicted high daily case numbers would dissolve any need to keep the rest of Australia out, and the border would likely open earlier than when the 80 per cent booster target was met.

Holding out for West Australians to receive their third vaccination may also prove ineffective, given there was no data stating how effective it was against the Omicron variant once antibody levels went down.

This is our WA COVID-19 update for Thursday, 27 January 2022.

For official information on COVID-19 in WA, visit https://t.co/zTYXZCJrTJhttps://t.co/BuerSJUvEEpic.twitter.com/paLJhTccJC

— Mark McGowan (@MarkMcGowanMP) January 27, 2022

There was however cell-mediated immunity – another type of immunity provided by vaccines – which could give the body prolonged immunity against the virus with the booster, Dr Khorshid said.

The problem with relying on cell-mediated immunity though was that it was impossible to measure in the blood and therefore entirely unpredictable.

“That’s why the most ideal timing [to open the border] is when your most vulnerable are boosted, even if that means some of the young fit people have only had two doses,” Dr Khorshid said.

‘Great big Omicron outbreak’ likely for WA

The most likely scenario for the coming months was a “great big Omicron outbreak” in WA, according to Dr Khorshid.

He suspected Mr McGowan was already well aware of what’s likely ahead, and potentially planned to use the WA outbreak to remove the need for him to make a border decision.

Instead of opening the state and copping blame for people getting sick – and hindering his re-election prospects – he may be holding out so when local cases peak, the border will essentially be redundant.

“What we’ve been calling on the premier to do is to focus on slowing the spread of the virus that is here right now, because WA’s health admissions is less able to cope than the rest of the country,” Dr Khorshid said.

“They haven’t taken strong steps as yet to slow this virus down. They haven’t been imposing social distancing restrictions or limits on gatherings in houses.

“I think this current outbreak will spread, and it will spread to a point where the border becomes irrelevant and you may as well open, because you’ve got just as much virus in WA as in the rest of the country.”

Dr Khorshid has been calling for the announcement of a reopening date soon so the state could reach the peak of its outbreak before winter, but said the “window is closing pretty rapidly”.

“If he opens up in May that’s probably the worst time. But then the thought of waiting another six months or year, that’s pretty hard for West Australians to swallow.”