Australian epidemiologists have their say on PM’s scientific modelling

A number of Australian experts have backed the PM’s latest way out of the pandemic, but it has come with some grim warnings.

A number of leading Australian experts have backed the Government’s scientific modelling on how Australia will claw its way out of the Covid-19 pandemic – but it has come with warnings.

Yesterday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison unveiled modelling which revealed a 70 per cent vaccination target for people aged over 16 for the next phase of national cabinet’s four-phase Covid-19 reopening response.

Research from the Doherty Institute suggested young Australians under 40 are Covid-19 “superspreaders”, but revealed once Australia hits its 70 per cent vaccination target, outbreaks will be contained by lighter restrictions rather than lockdowns and the cap on international travellers will be increased.

“Combined with an effective and well-preserved public health response it could help to turn what otherwise might be a bushfire into more of a controlled backburn and keep case numbers low,” Doherty Institute Professor Jodie McVernon said.

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: Gary Ramage

But hopes of a return to “normal” may be dashed, with epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely telling Waleed Aly on The Project that we will have to learn to live with coronavirus, and warned more deaths will come.

“The reality is that we will be looking at some deaths, some level of morbidity in hospitalisation in that period once we get to a high enough vaccination coverage that we open up to the rest of the world.

“That is the reality.”

Professor Blakely revealed the country is now pivoting towards younger people “who are more likely to be the essential workers”.

He said the higher rate of those who get vaccinated, the less chance we have of further spread. Professor Blakely added that the modelling is “great, because we’re all saying the same thing”.

The complete Doherty Institute Modelling Report to advise on the National Plan to transition Australia's COVID Response can now be viewed on our website. https://t.co/mfPNow37Smpic.twitter.com/Q00c1nHn7g

— Doherty Institute (@TheDohertyInst) August 3, 2021

Meanwhile the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations chair Jane Halton backed the Government’s message that younger people are “peak transmitters of Covid-19”.

“If you have a look at who is being infected in Sydney right now, you can see that in this younger age group people who are moving about the community, often for work-related needs, that’s where the highest level of spread is,” Ms Halton said.

The modelling proposes a focus on young adults under 40 as a priority for the vaccine after a focus on older Australians who are most at risk.

Professor McVernon said the key message was that immunising younger people should be a priority.

“This is a strategy that basically follows where we are right now but brings forward immunisation of the 30-39 group to the beginning of September and 16-29 to early in October,’’ she said.

A surge of young Australians have contracted the virus with NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard describing the number as “extremely concerning”.

Epidemiologist Professor Mary-Louise McLaws told the ABC: “Delta doesn’t discriminate any more, in fact, it looks for children and it looks for young people.”

Professor Jodie McVernon. Picture: Gary Ramage

Mounted police on patrol at Bondi Beach as Greater Sydney is in lockdown. Picture: Damian Shaw

Younger people ‘driving’ the outbreak

Last week, the shift turned to young Australians who were “driving” the outbreak in NSW with “a massive percentage of people under 40 who are critical to Sydney’s ongoing daily needs” becoming the centre of the debate.

More than half of those in NSW who contracted the Delta strain of Covid-19 are younger than 55, Premier Gladys Berejiklian said last Thursday.

Ms Berejiklian issued a grim warning to younger residents that the highly transmissible variant is “like nothing we’ve seen before”.

Brisbane’s lockdown has now been extended until Sunday, and the Ekka (above) has been cancelled for the second year in a row. Picture: Jono Searle

Cleaners at Bonnyrigg bus station in the southwestern Sydney suburbs during Covid-19 lockdown. Picture: Dylan Coker

In Queensland’s current outbreak of the Delta strain, schools are the focus, with the first cases detected at Indooroopilly High School in Brisbane’s west. In one day, 10 children under the age of nine tested positive.

Now, hundreds of Sunshine Coast school students and staff have been ordered to get a Covid-19 test as health authorities scramble to piece together how Queensland’s outbreak started.

“One of the things we do know about Delta is that it is more evident in younger people and of course, we know that kids, when they’re at school, they’re very closely packed in together,” Ms Halton said.

“While this hasn’t necessarily in the past been something we’ve had huge concerns about, with the Delta variant, we are.”

Today, Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP revealed the modelling behind the plan to live with COVID-19. And it’s one that will force Australia to confront a very serious question, how many deaths is acceptable? #TheProjectTVpic.twitter.com/RTDOtgcfbb

— The Project (@theprojecttv) August 3, 2021