Australia enters ‘new normal’ in fifth phase of coronavirus fight

Australia is now entering the fifth and final phase in its fight against coronavirus after almost four months – the new normal.

After almost four months, more than 7400 infections and 102 deaths, Australia has entered the fifth and final phase in its fight against COVID-19 – the “new normal”.

But one wrong move, a new report warns, and all of our hard work could be undone.

A report titled Coming out of COVID-19 lockdown: the next steps for Australian healthcare frames Australia’s coronavirus response in four phases so far: containment, reassurance, cautious incrementalisation and national action.

Led by health economist and health program director at the Grattan Institute Stephen Duckett, the study maps out where our nation goes from here – now we’ve entered a phase where the “endpoint” relies on the successful creation of a coronavirus vaccine.

“The world needs to adapt to a ‘new normal’, where the economic fallout continues and the virus continues to pose a threat,” Dr Duckett writes.

“Unless or until there is a vaccine, this stage has no endpoint. We all will live with the risk of more outbreaks and shutdowns, and the need for vigilance and swift responses to outbreaks.”

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One only has to look at Victoria to understand how critical that “need for vigilance” is.

The state has recorded double-digit increases in new infection numbers for the past week – many of them locally acquired cases – and Premier Daniel Andrews has conceded the state is “at risk of a second peak”.

“There is a concern based on data from recent days that we have more community transmission than is acceptable,” Mr Andrews told reporters on Saturday afternoon.

“And if we don’t take these steps now we potentially finish up with this thing getting away from us.”

Restrictions have been tightened, a state of emergency extended until July 19, and authorities and other state and territory leaders are no doubt watching Victoria with bated breath.

“Australia has been remarkably successful in managing the virus to date,” the study’s authors write – citing four key triumphs in our national response: containment, reassurance amid uncertainty, cautious incrementalisation, and escalated national action.

“But as Australia moves out of the emergency phase and towards a ‘new normal’, there are still many uncertainties,” the study’s authors write.

“It is uncertain whether there will be a second wave or resurgence of infections. It is uncertain whether Australia can eliminate the virus. It is uncertain how large the economic effects will be. It is uncertain when border restrictions can be lifted. It is uncertain if there will ever be a vaccine.”

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The five phases of Australia's coronavirus response. Picture: Grattan Institute

Planning for this final transition is “as important as the planning of the response during the initial wave of the pandemic”, the report finds.

The reopening of shops, schools and workplaces heighten the risk of new infections, especially if Australians adopt the mentality that the threat of COVID-19 is over.

“While there are active cases of COVID-19 in Australia, there is always the possibility of a second wave,” the study’s authors write, adding state governments need to be prepared to “act decisively to control outbreaks”.

“It’s dangerous for people to think this fight is over. The nature of the virus hasn’t changed – our behaviour has. If Australians go back to a pre-COVID normal, the virus could spread quickly and wildly.”

If Australia gets this transition wrong, “we won’t benefit from the overdue health system changes that the crisis forced on us”, the report says.

“That would be another tragedy on top of the trauma caused by the pandemic itself.”

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But Mr Andrews also warned if Victorians become complacent now, a second wave would be “absolutely catastrophic” to the state’s economy if previously rolled-back measures had to be reinstated.

“We are acutely conscious that every one of these decisions does damage but we are equally conscious that to not make these important decisions … can have enormous consequences not just in terms of safety, people’s lives, but it also risks a second wave,” Mr Andrews said.

“And a second wave will be absolutely catastrophic to our economy.

“We are doing everything we possibly can, but it isn’t just us. Every family has got to do whatever they possibly can to avoid that second wave. That is our message today.”