China flexes regional muscles with submarines in Japanese waters

A secretive submarine has been detected deep within Japanese waters sparking fears Beijing is daring Tokyo to respond.

China has been lashing out at rivals during the coronavirus pandemic, from a brutal brawl with Indian soldiers high in the Himalayas to a diplomatic war of words with Australia.

Now, Japan is firmly in its sights.

Just days ago Tokyo filed a formal diplomatic protest with Beijing over Chinese Coast Guard vessels violating the territory of the disputed Senkaku Islands for more than 65 consecutive days.

The vessels are still there, in an aggressive assertion of ownership by Beijing - one that is seemingly daring Tokyo to respond.

And China has just backed up that dare with a big stick by brazenly sending a submarine through waters close to the Japanese home islands.

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“Japanese defense officials say the submarine navigated from the Pacific into the East China Sea through a narrow channel between Amami-Oshima Island and the Tokara Islands. They say the latest move is unusual and are analyzing the purpose...” https://t.co/T5FDVX9C9p

— East Asia Studies (@EAsiaStudies) June 20, 2020

A screen grab of NHK Newsline story about a submarine being spotted off Japan.

The Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force (SDF) confirmed at the weekend that a “foreign” submarine had been detected near Amami-Oshima between Okinawa and Kyushu.

It did not surface nor identify itself.

Japanese warships and land-based surveillance aircraft then tracked the submarine for several days, watching closely as it moved from the Pacific Ocean into the East China Sea.

Japanese government sources told local media the submarine remains unidentified, but that they believed it to be Chinese.

Military forces are usually deliberately vague when it comes to identifying submarines. This is to conceal the accuracy of tracking technology – such as sound, sonar and infra-red signatures.

The submarine “may have tested Japanese and US anti-submarine warfare capabilities,” an SDF source told the Japan Times.

Another government source reportedly said the submarine may have been “trying to stir things up as another part of China’s maritime advances” – an oblique reference to the situation in the South and East China Seas.

The move is being interpreted as a signal by Beijing that it has advanced navigational knowledge of the Japanese seabed and submarines capable of exploiting this.

In response, the Japanese SDF dispatched two warships – the destroyer Ashigara and the helicopter carrier Kaga – and P-1 maritime surveillance aircraft to follow the submarine’s movements.

Under the United Nations’ Law of the Sea, a submarine must surface and raise its national flag while transiting territorial waters that extend 22km from the shore. This does not apply to contiguous zones – areas sharing a common border in which a nation can exert customs and immigration control extending an additional 22km beyond territorial waters.

The submarine passed through a narrow 10km territorial gap between Amami-Oshima Island and the Tokara Islands. This was as close as it could come to an outright violation without actually doing so.

It’s the first time Japan has admitted to observing a submarine in its contiguous zone some 375km northwest of the significant inhabited island of Okinawa.

Beijing’s expanding submarine fleet has been of growing concern to regional navies. By 2030, it’s predicted to number some 60 quiet diesel-electric boats and about 16 nuclear-powered attack submarines.

‘UNIQUE AND COMBUSTIBLE’ FLASHPOINT

Lowy Institute international affairs analyst William Choong said “compared to other flashpoints in the region … the East China Sea combines a unique and combustible mix of history, honour and territory.”

Japan has administered the uninhabited Senkaku Islands since 1972. Unlike Taiwan (formerly Formosa), they were not ceded to China after World War II. But both China and Taiwan claim the rocky outcrops as their own.

None of the three nations shows any sign of backing down.

The uninhabited Senkaku Islands, which Japan had administered since 1972, shown in 2011. Picture: STR/various sources/AFP

Unlike the Himalayas, any clash between Japanese and Chinese forces in the East China Sea will likely draw in the United States.

Washington and Tokyo have a mutual defence treaty. If a foreign power attacks either country, the other is obligated to assist in its defence.

But Beijing now appears to be following the playbook it established in the South China Sea by merely moving in.

“The Senkaku Islands are under our control and are unquestionably our territory historically and under international law. It is extremely serious that these activities continue. We will respond to the Chinese side firmly and calmly,” Japan’s chief cabinet secretary said Yoshihide Suga when issuing the complaint to Beijing.

China’s foreign ministry replied: “The Diaoyu Island and its affiliated islands are an inherent part of China’s territory, and it is our inherent right to carry out patrols and law enforcement activities in these waters.”

The new dispute appears to be over administrative moves.

Beijing recently declared its illegally-occupied artificial island-fortresses in the South China Sea to be part of a new formal government district. This is a ploy to bolster a sense of inevitability of its ownership.

Now the Okinawa prefecture is looking to take over administration of the Senkakus from the Ishigaki City Council in a move that also asserts the islands as being formal Japanese territory.

Beijing is irritated at having its own tactics used against it.

“Changing the administrative designation at this time can only make the dispute more complicated and bring more risks of a crisis,” Beijing-based international analyst Li Haidong told the state-run Global Times.

MILITARY BUILD UP

The most severe crisis over the Senkaku Islands was sparked in 2012 when Japan nationalised the then privately owned islands. This was to block a provocative move by Japanese nationalists to turn the islands into a resort.

News of the plan had sparked government-backed protests across China. The Japanese Embassy was attacked, Japanese-owned stores and restaurants were looted, and Japanese-made cars vandalised.

Chinese demonstrators during an anti-Japanese protests outside the Japanese Embassy in Beijing Saturday on Sept. 15, 2012. Picture: Andy Wong/AP

Since then, Beijing has been increasingly bold in its moves.

It sent a frigate into the islands’ contiguous zone in 2016. A submarine and frigate entered the waters again in 2018.

Tokyo has also been busy.

It has steadily built-up its military presence in the area, with regular naval and combat aircraft patrols throughout the extensive island chains to its south. A new unit of marines has trained in island warfare. And new anti-ship missile systems have been deployed.

At stake are territorial rights over nearby fishing grounds and potential oil and gas reserves. Major arterial shipping routes also pass close by.

“A vital question now is whether Washington would send in the cavalry if a war of words were to escalate into actual war,” Choong writes.

“As Chinese behaviour since 2012 has shown, Beijing will not stop salami-slicing below the threshold of open conflict, challenging Japan’s occupation of the islands by sending aircraft and vessels near the islands.”

The continuous presence of the Coast Guard ships and now the submarine declaring its presence closer to the Japanese home islands represent a more substantial “slice of salami” than usual, however.

“The question is not whether China … would want to challenge Japan over the islands. The question is when, and how? This is what keeps Japanese (and American) policymakers awake at night.”