‘Brutal rule’ behind ‘iron lady’s’ downfall in Bangladesh

The courts were in her pocket and the army was family. This former prime minister thought she had it all, but a huge mistake led to her undoing.

Ousted Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina thought she had it all.

She owned the police. The courts were in her pocket. And the army was family.

But it wasn’t enough to stop a popular student uprising.

“The aura of invincibility that she and her party created over the past decade and a half crumbled in a matter of hours,” Atlantic Council think-tank South Asia analyst Professor Ali Riaz said.

Protests erupted across Bangladesh early in July amid outrage against the introduction of a controversial “quota” system that allocated 30 per cent of government jobs to descendants of veterans of the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.

This was widely seen as a move to entrench and reward the ruling Awami Party’s power base.

But this was the final straw that broke the back of her 175 million struggling subjects.

In January, Hasina’s ruling party claimed an overwhelming victory in a deeply suspect national election. And it wasn’t the first time.

But Hasina thought she was prepared: she imposed a strict curfew and issued “shoot on sight” orders to her loyalist police, the Border Guard, a Rapid Action Battalion, and Awami League activists.

According to the United Nations, more than 300 civilians have been killed and 20,000 injured since the unrest began in July.

“But Hasina and her government got it wrong,” Council on Foreign Relations senior analyst for South Asia Joshua Kurlantzick said.

Bangladesh's Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at a rally during an election campaign in Sylhet on December 20, 2023. Picture: AFP

“Revulsion at the brutal crackdown – including thousands of arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings, and security forces storming into hospitals to snatch suspects – combined with years of frustration at Hasina’s aloof, brutal, and ineffective rule,” Mr Kurlantzick said.

Her crackdown only invigorated the protests.

Last weekend, Hasina’s police and special forces units began abandoning their posts. Armed party loyalists fled in the face of the enormous protest turnouts, and the army refused to open fire.

On Monday, Hasina fled the country to neighbouring India.

“It will now be a struggle to normalise democratic politics, though the rapid release of the main opposition leader was a step forward,” Mr Kurlantzick said.

“This work should start by ensuring the army keeps to its promise and holds elections soon, rather than clinging to power.”

Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) personnel stand guard during a protest on July 31, 2024. Picture: Munir Uz Zaman/AFP

People power

“Young people and people from every range of life across Bangladesh, across the entire country, came out on the streets to celebrate,” UN Resident Co-ordinator for Bangladesh Gwyn Lewis said in a statement.

“It’s really a moment of a crossroads for Bangladesh, and so we’re really hopeful that this will become something very positive that we can build on for our colleagues who are Bangladeshis and for the people of Bangladesh.”

Hasina, dubbed by some as “The Iron Lady”, had been in power since January 2009. She had previously led the country between 1996 and 2001.

But her controversial reign had grown increasingly corrupt and authoritarian even as the national economy stagnated.

“In the 15 years that Hasina was in power, the state’s administrative apparatuses were too often filled with party loyalists who served the party first and acted beyond the remit of the law,” Prof Riaz said.

RAND think-tank Professor Rafiq Dossani said: “Among the many elected leaders with autocratic tendencies who have sought to stay in power long after the people turned against them, Hasina and her Awami League must have seemed a model of longevity and success

“Her ouster suggests otherwise,” Prof Dossani said.

Bangladesh police scuffle with people as they protest to demand justice for the victims killed in the recent countrywide violence. Picture: Munir Uz Zaman/AFP

The most brutal clash came last Sunday, August 4, when more than 100 protesters were shot dead by police and ruling party members. Some 14 police and officials were also killed.

“Footage from the event showed security forces engaging in point-blank shootings of nonviolent protesters, further inflaming public outrage,” notes the international threat analysis group The Soufan Centre.

“It was Hasina’s reaction to the protests that was her downfall,” an analysis by the International Crisis Group said.

“She sealed her fate when she decided to crack down rather than pursue dialogue with protest leaders.”

The following day, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in a march on the capital, Dhaka, in defiance of the curfew.

“Faced with the possibility of hundreds more deaths, Bangladesh’s newly appointed army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman – a distant relative of Hasina’s – made it clear to the prime minister that his troops would not step in to save the government,” the analysis states.

A student carrying Bangladesh national flag takes part in a protest march. Picture: Munir Uz Zaman/AFP

A new hope?

“Let us not let this slip away because of our mistakes,” urged Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus as he rushed back to Bangladesh from Paris on Wednesday.

“I fervently appeal to everybody to stay calm. Please refrain from all kinds of violence … This is our beautiful country with lots of exciting possibilities.”

Yunus won the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize for pioneering the concept of microcredit, which has helped lift millions out of poverty through small loans to start businesses.

Student protest organisers had put his name forward to lead an interim government until fresh national elections could be organised.

“I am certain that he will be able to take us through a beautiful democratic process and that we will benefit from this,” army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman agreed when announcing his appointment.

Yunus now faces the enormous task of restoring law and order – and confidence – to the restless nation.

“Violence is our enemy,” he said.

“Please don’t create more enemies. Be calm and get ready to build the country.”

The fear of violent reprisals is very real.

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus returned to Bangladesh on August 8 to lead a caretaker government after a student-led uprising. Picture: Munir Uz Zaman/AFP

“Alongside the joy and relief on the streets of Dhaka in the wake of Hasina’s resignation, there is a great deal of hatred of the repressive apparatus she built to maintain her grip on power,” the International Crisis Group warned.

And the army may have to take a leading role, given the widespread distrust of police and government institutions.

“Their association with the ruling party, alongside chronic corruption, has created a deep well of resentment of the security forces, who have engaged in human rights violations ranging from arbitrary arrests to forced disappearances,” the group added.

“However, the military’s involvement in this transitional phase remains a critical concern as the likelihood of a future military-backed government remains a tangible possibility.”

But Professor Riaz said early indications are positive.

“The choice of Yunus is a clear testimony that unlike on previous occasions, when political parties, in consultation with the military and bureaucracy, decided who would head the government, a new political force is making the decision this time around,” he wrote.

“The students have emerged as the centre of power, and will seek to exercise that power.”

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel