Australia pressured to join ‘mega navy drill’ to send message to China

Three nations will take part in a unified display of opposition to China's territorial ambitions. Last time it happened Beijing was outraged.

Pressure is growing for Australia to join India, Japan and the United States in a ‘mega navy drill’ as a unified display of opposition to China’s territorial ambitions.

For decades New Delhi has been hesitant in inviting Australia to join in on its largest international defence exercise.

The Malabar war games draws together air and naval forces from India, the US and Japan for high-level combat simulations in the Bay of Bengal.

Previous attempts to expand the scope of the exercise has drawn down the wrath of Beijing. New Delhi, unwilling to anger its neighbour, backed down.

But things have changed.

Beijing’s aggressive actions in the Himalayas, antagonistic incursions in waters claimed by Japan and ongoing truculence over its rejected claim to the South China Sea is hardening the resolve of East Asia’s regional powers against it.

Now, US Deputy Secretary of State Steven Biegun has indicated New Delhi is about to take action.

“India just recently invited Australia to participate in the Malabar exercises, which is now going to allow all four members of the quad to participate in a military exercise together that will be hugely beneficial to reinforcing the behaviours that are going to be necessary for us to defend our mutual interests,” Biegun told a Capitol Hill policy hearing late last week.

New Delhi is yet to publicly confirm the offer. But local sources confirm Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration was “favourably considering” Australia’s participation.

The US is keen for its Indo-Pacific allies to work together.

“Because if China sees that that’s how the world is aligned against its efforts, it will have the best incentive to change its behaviour in a peaceful manner, as well,” Biegun said.

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CHINA’S INDIAN OCEAN AMBITIONS

In the past 30 years, Beijing has moved to build up a ‘belt’ of maritime facilities between it and Africa. Most have a commercial purpose. But most will also host Chinese warships.

“Its growing naval presence, together with its use of so-called ‘debt-trap diplomacy,’ might provide (Beijing) with meaningful military advantages far from its shores,” foreign policy expert Joshua White concludes in a recent report for the Brookings Institution.

“It is clear that the Chinese leadership is actively pursuing capabilities that would allow it to undertake a range of military missions in the region.”

China has been actively engaged in anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia. It’s built up a major fortified harbour facility in Djibouti, ostensibly for this purpose.

But the steadily increasing presence of its attack submarines in the Indian Ocean represent much more than a pirate-hunting presence.

“China may be many years away from having the ability to operate effectively against state adversaries in a conflict environment in the (Indian Ocean). But its efforts to gradually build operational capabilities for higher order missions are at least as important to the future stability of the region as its often haphazard portfolio of infrastructure investments,” he says.

While casting doubt on the value of Beijing’s ‘debt trap’ tactics, White argues the nature of the harbour facilities it is helping to build in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives should be watched closely.

Will they support forces much greater than needed in anti-piracy operations? Will they become intelligence-gathering hubs? Will they offer facilities capable of sustaining operations in a conflict?

“Forecasting the trajectory of China’s influence in the (Indian Ocean region) is no easy task,” White writes.

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The Kora-class corvette INS Kora (P 61) steams behind the guided-missile cruiser USS Princeton (CG 59) and the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) during Malabar 2017. Picture: US Navy

What is certain is the importance Beijing attaches to securing its fuel supplies from the Middle East. This year, China became Saudi Arabia’s single largest crude oil customer.

“Although China’s emerging capabilities in the Indian Ocean region have been greeted with suspicion, many of them are explicable given China’s understandable interests”.

This, he says, includes the number of Chinese nationals living and working in the region and supporting its Belt-and-Road investments.

“Most experts consider it inevitable that the (Chinese navy) will continue to increase its deployments to the (Indian Ocean) as its surface and subsurface fleets assigned to its Southern Theater Command grow in size and sophistication. Such deployments will likely continue to be publicly justified on the basis of non-combat activities, even as they provide capabilities that, at times, vastly overmatch the mission requirement”.

A LINE IN THE WATER

“China’s outreach across the Indian Ocean with Africa is a cause of major alarm, especially for India and Japan,” defence analyst Jagannath Panda writes for the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI).

And recent fatal clashes along the vaguely defined Himalayan borders of China and India appear to have hardened New Delhi’s resolve.

“India’s ties with China are undergoing a significant change following the Galwan border incident,” says Panda. “India will participate and promote now more intently in the Quad framework without worrying about China’s opposition.”

Activists burn Chinese flags and posters of Chinese President Xi Jinping during an anti-China protest in India after a violent border brawl that left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead. Picture: AFP.

Likewise, Australia has refused to be intimidated by repeated threats from its largest trading partner. Last week, Australia explicitly backed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) court ruling that China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea were unfounded.

“Australia’s inclusion would mean that all four members of the Quadrilateral Dialogue would essentially be involved in war games in the Indo-Pacific, a key staging point for China in its apparent aspirations for regional domination,” Aarti Betigeri writes for the Lowy Institute. “The message is not symbolic – and it is not lost on Beijing.”

The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) mouthpiece, The Global Times, has confirmed that view. It’s accused India of having aspirations of empire.

“India’s strategy is to expand its sphere of influence into the entire Indian Ocean and the South Pacific,” a recent editorial reads. “If New Delhi is bolstered by Canberra, it will help India to expand its influence into the South Pacific via the Strait of Malacca, in line with India’s whole strategic thinking.”

Beijing is posturing to paint the emerging alliance as a threat.

“China should raise its vigilance,” the editorial warns. “Since 2017, the US has labelled China as a strategic rival, believing that a rising China is a threat to the US. Therefore, a possible joint military drill, whose aim includes targeting China, by all members of the Quad does not come as surprising.”

A QUAD ALLIANCE?

Last week saw two separate – but linked – naval operations.

One combined ships from Australia, Japan and the US in the Philippines Sea.

Another, in the Indian Ocean, saw Washington’s forces join those of New Delhi.

HMA Ships Canberra, Hobart, Stuart, Arunta and Sirius taking part in a trilateral passage in the Philippine Sea with US Navy ships, USS Ronald Reagan, Antietam and Mustin and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Akizuki-class destroyer JS Teruzuki. Picture: The Australian Defence Force

Now, ships and aircraft from across the Pacific are converging on Hawaii for the enormous biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise.

But everyone’s talking about Malabar.

This major India-led defence exercise was initiated with the US in 1992. But, when Japan and Australia were invited to join the 2007 event, China reacted with outrage.

This sidelined the evolving Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which had been intended to promote strategic co-operation between the four nations.

New Delhi was hesitant to incur Beijing’s wrath. But, amid escalating tensions, Japan became a permanent participant in 2015.

Since then, those tensions have only continued to grow.

“China has been unforgiving in pushing its aggressive anti-Indo-Pacific strategy, continuing naval exercises even during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Panda says. “If Australia were to rejoin, the exercises would involve all four Quad nations and be perceived as a maritime alliance against China.”

New Delhi appears to believe it no longer has anything to lose by formalising defence links with Australia.

But don’t call it an “alliance” just yet.

India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said last week that India, traditionally a non-aligned nation, will “never be” a formal part of one.

Ja mie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel