Gallipoli centenary: Are Australian visitors walking into a terrorist attack?

MORE than 10,000 Australians will descend on the Gallipoli peninsula this week, but are they walking right into a serious terrorist threat?

IN THE hours before the much-anticipated dawn service in Gallipoli on Saturday, the commemorative site — which is currently teeming with tourists from around the world — will be evacuated.

Every person will be ordered to leave the site for two hours so that the Turkish authorities can conduct a comprehensive bomb sweep.

Experts say that the Gallipoli centenary commemorations in Turkey could be an attractive target for terrorist groups, however the people who are running the events say the threat of an attack is low.

Islamic State militants walk Ethiopian Christians to a beach before killing them. Picture: AP

The Turkish Government has assumed control of security for the commemorations and have deployed significant numbers to the peninsula to monitor the situation.

And with reports last week that a group of would-be jihadists were planning to attack Anzac Day commemorations in Melbourne, the security situation in Turkey is being taken seriously.

So, what are threats to the Australians who will mark Anzac Day in Gallipoli?

THE THREAT OF IS

Islamic State has captured large swathes of north-eastern Syria and northern Iraq in an attempt to create a Muslim caliphate, a state ruled by sharia law.

Figures differ, but some believe IS has captured as much as 90,000sq km of Iraq and Syria, controlling as many as 8 million people. The CIA estimates that IS has an army of more than 31,000 fighters.

The Gallipoli peninsula is found in Turkey’s far west, about 1500km or 16 hours’ drive from Kobani in Syria, which has been a flash point for violence.

Despite the distance, Turkish authorities are on high alert for a terrorist attack during the Anzac centenary, with 3700 Turkish police and paramilitary troops to be stationed at the commemorations.

The Australian Department of Veterans Affairs said the Turkish Government was taking its responsibility for security very seriously.

A contingent of officers from the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) and the Australian Federal Police have also been sent to Turkey ahead of the commemorations. It is also understood that Australian Defence Force personnel will form an evacuation team to protect Australian officials visiting the site on April 25, The Daily Telegraph reports.

Security fears in Turkey were heightened in January when a female suicide bomber attacked Istanbul’s main tourist district, Sultanahmet. A police officer and the assailant were killed.

Authorities will also be closely watching a demonstration in Istanbul’s Taksim Square this week, protesting the massacre of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turkish forces 100 years ago.

While security in Istanbul can be volatile, the most dangerous part of the country is in the Turkey’s southeast.

The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) advises that Turkey’s southern border with Syria and Iraq is “long and porous”, with its 1000km stretch providing an easy gateway for would-be jihadists to the battlefields.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has accused Turkey of not doing enough to stop the rise of the extremist group, saying foreign fighters were being “logistically and militarily” supported to cross the border between the two nations.

DFAT advises that violence from the Syrian conflict could spill over to the larger Turkish cities of Ankara and Istanbul.

While Gallipoli is far from the IS stronghold, the much closer city of Istanbul is important to the group because it is a major gateway for those aspiring to join the battlefields.

Iraqi forces fire artillery towards Islamic State positions west of the Iraqi capital Baghdad. Picture: AFP/Ahmad al-Rubaye

WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF AN ATTACK?

A senior Australian intelligence source told The Daily Telegraph this month that Anzac Day at Gallipoli would be a “high-value target” for Islamic State terrorists.

But terrorism expert Colin Wight said it was “incredibly difficult” to assess just how great the risk was.

“ISIS and other groups would like to be able to attack the Australians but there are special security arrangements in place,” Professor Wight, of the University of Sydney, told news.com.au.

But he cautioned Australians against overreacting.

“The bottom line is reacting too strongly is exactly what these groups want to achieve.” he said.

Prof Wight said the Turkish security contingent meant the terrorism threat had been taken seriously.

“They they say it is safe to go ahead, so we should go ahead, otherwise we allow these groups to dictate how we mark these events.

“There are no guarantees … It doesn’t mean something won’t happen but (the authorities have) done all they can. You have to go forward or it lets the terrorists win.”

The Australian director of the Gallipoli services, Tim Evans, maintains that the security threat remains low.

“This is one of the safest places in Turkey for Australians and New Zealand visitors,” he told reporters in Gallipoli on Tuesday.

He said he also did not believe the revelation that five men were planning an IS-style attack on police at a Melbourne Anzac Day service had any impact on the security situation in Turkey.

He did say, however, that the higher number of dignitaries attending this year’s event — including Princes Charles and Harry and both the Australian and New Zealand prime ministers — would have changed the way the Turkish authorities addressed security.

Demonstrators chant pro-Islamic State slogans in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul, northwest of Baghdad, Iraq. Picture: AP Photo

TRAVELLERS TOLD TO EXERCISE ‘HIGH DEGREE OF CAUTION’

DFAT’s Smart Traveller website advises Australians to exercise a “high degree of caution” when travelling in Turkey because of the threat of a terrorist attack.

“Terrorist attacks can occur anywhere at any time in Turkey. In recent years, terrorist attacks have occurred in tourist areas and locations frequented by foreigners,” the website states.

Smart Traveller advises that Australians reconsider their need to travel in areas closer to the Turkish border to Syria and Iraq, such as the provinces of Hakkari, Sirnak and Siirt.

The site tells of the “unpredictable security situation” in these due to the “threat of kidnapping, terrorist attack and the potential for the spill-over of violence associated with the ongoing conflict in Syria”.

“There is currently no indication that terrorist groups have intentions to attack Australians or Australian interests in Turkey. This includes the Anzac Day commemorations in Gallipoli,” the site reads.