Out-of-control Chinese space station predicted to crash into Earth over Easter

AN OUT-of-control Chinese space station is going to smash through the Earth’s atmosphere — and unfortunately, Australia is in its path.

A CHINESE space station the size of a school bus is hurtling towards Earth and experts predict it will appear as a fiery streak across the sky as it re-enters our atmosphere over the Easter long weekend.

The 8.5 tonne Tiangong-1 will most likely fall from orbit between March 30 and April 4, according to The Aerospace Corporation, which has been tracking the station since 2016.

Concerns that the spacecraft is out of control mean that it could hit the Earth anywhere between 43 degrees north and south of the equator.

However, there are some areas that have a greater chance of being hit and they include the southernmost tip of Australia, Tasmania and New Zealand.

The green and yellow bands show Tiangong-1’s orbit range. The yellow bands represent a higher risk than the green band. Picture: The Aerospace Corporation

“We won’t have a firm idea of precisely when — or any clue of where — until several hours prior to re-entry,“ senior Aerospace Corporation technician Andrew Abraham told NBC.

But with 70 per cent of the world’s surface made up of sea and huge chunks of Australia void of any population, the chance of getting struck by a piece of falling space lab are extremely slim, according to Warwick Holmes, who heads the University of Sydney’s School of Aerospace.

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“Everyone thinks they’re going to get hit by the Chinese space station. I promise you it’s just not going to happen,” Mr Holmes told the ABC.

“You’ve got a greater probability of getting hit by a car crossing a Sydney road today than you’re going to get hit by the Chinese space station.”

WHAT WAS THE PURPOSE OF TIANGONG-1?

Tiangong-1, whose name translates as “Heavenly Palace”, launched without anyone aboard on September 11, 2011. It settled into an orbit 350km above Earth, some 50km beneath the International Space Station.

The station is 10.4m long and 3.4m wide with a habitable internal volume of 15 cubic metres.

Tiangong-1 consists of two components: a “resource module” which contains the space lab’s solar power and propulsion systems, and an “experimental module” that accommodated astronauts and scientific work.

The experimental module features two beds and some exercise gear, but it doesn’t have a bathroom or kitchen.

In November 2011, a robotic craft called Shenzhou-8 visited the Tiangong-1. Two crewed missions to the space lab followed; Shenzhou-9 in June 2012 and Shenzhou-10 in June 2013, according to Space.com. Both Shenzhou-9 and Shenzhou-10 had three crew members, and both missions lasted about two weeks.

The Tiangong-1 Chinese space station is predicted to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere between March 30 and April 4, with many experts placing their bets on April 1. Picture: The Aerospace Corporation

WHY IS IT FALLING TO EARTH?

The Tiangong-1 was only ever supposed to be operational for two years. After the Shenzhou-10s visit, China put the space station into “sleep mode” and the plan was to proceed with a controlled “deorbit” using the Tiangong-1’s thrusters to guide it into the Earth’s atmosphere.

But in March 2016, China announced that Tiangong-1 had stopped sending data back to its handlers, with the country’s state-run news service Xinhua reporting that the craft’s functions had been “disabled”, making a controlled re-entry impossible.

Instead, Tiangong-1 is being pulled back down to Earth by atmospheric drag.

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The space lab completes 16 orbits each day, flying over a slightly different part of the Earth’s surface each orbit and losing altitude every time.

The Chinese Manned Space Agency estimates the Tiangong-1 is currently positioned just over 220km above Earth.

As it gets closer to Earth, drag will increase and it will drop faster as it loses energy.

The descending craft is being tracked by radar stations around the world, and space engineers are trying to predict which orbit path it will be on as it enters the atmosphere.

The Tiangong-1 is expected to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere over the Easter long weekend. Picture: The Aerospace Corporation

WHEN SKYLAB CRASHED INTO AUSTRALIA

In July 1979, NASA’s 77 tonne Skylab space station burned up over the Indian Ocean and Western Australia after sustaining severe damage to its meteorite shield and solar panels.

Some big chunks survived the fall, and the WA town of Esperance famously slapped NASA with a $400 fine.

When members of the Skylab investigation team visited the town to inspect the damage and collect the station remnants, they were presented with a littering ticket.

“Upon our arrival, the president of the shire had arranged a mock ceremony in which an officer of the parks service ticketed NASA for littering, the evidence having been found all about the countryside,” reads a paragraph in NASA’s 1979 newsletter.

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The ticket was issued as a joke and NASA never paid the $400 fine.

However in 2009, 30 years after Skylab’s re-entry, California radio DJ Scott Barley asked listeners to donate money so they could finally clear NASA’s books. Though the mayor of Esperance told Barley the ticket had been “written off years ago”, he and his listeners cobbled together the $400 and sent it to Esperance.

In return, Barley was invited to Esperance and received a key to the city.