New simulation exercise aims to show NASA how people will really react when faced with asteroid threat
If this had been real, ten million people would be dead. NASA just tested our asteroid defence system, and despite eight years to plan their response, a team of scientists and engineers failed.
NASA just tested Earth’s asteroid defence system. It failed.
It doesn’t have a terribly good track record.
In 2013, the French Riviera was vaporised.
In 2017, Tokyo was saved.
But, in 2019, New York has been obliterated.
The simulated killer asteroid #2019PDC is, naturally, “highly unlikely,” Paul Chodas, the NASA engineer who designed the scenario, told AFP.
“But we wanted the issues to be exposed and discussed.”
The world’s key space agencies did so by broadcasting the entire event via Twitter.
Iâm not sure this is a great idea. But @ESAOperations are live tweeting the progress of the disaster planning coming out of the Planetary Defence Conference ð. If you hear anything about asteroid #2019PDC itâs just fiction. This is fictional scenario only. #FICTIONALEVENT https://t.co/QioK1aa5lI
â Alasdair Allan (@aallan) April 26, 2019
EARLY WARNING
The ‘Planetary Defence’ simulation is intended to test the world’s response to an early warning of an impending killer-asteroid impact.
NASA gave 200 assembled scientists, engineers and emergency services specialists of the International Asteroid Warning Network the equivalent of eight years to track and determine the nature of the approaching monster, and figure out the best way to divert it.
The exercise began with an otherwise innocuous alert: an asteroid roughly 100 to 300 meters in size had been spotted in near-Earth orbit. According to early calculations, it had a one per cent chance of hitting the Earth on April 29, 2027.
That’s far more than the riskiest known real-world asteroid threat: Astronomers have calculated a rock called Bennu has a 1-in-2700 chance of striking Earth on September 25, 2135. A space craft is currently orbiting it, checking it out.
But the hypothetical 2019PDC asteroid bears a striking resemblance to another actual asteroid that is heading Earth’s way - Apophis. It will also make its closest approach to Earth in April, 2029. Initially thought to have a 2.7 per cent chance of hitting our planet, refinements of its trajectory have all but ruled this out.
#FictionalEventðâï¸
â ESA Operations (@esaoperations) April 30, 2019
Three more months of observations from around the world have refined our understanding of asteroid #2019PDC's orbit, which now has a 10% chance of striking Earth. Experts are performing detailed risk assessments to understand the potential impact effects pic.twitter.com/R4z4fdo5sj
In the simulation, the Planetary Defence team was fed ever-more disturbing updates.
The odds kept shortening as the fictonal months ticked by.
By 2021, NASA was able to get a probe off the ground to take a close look.
This enabled calculations to be further refined.
The prognosis was grim.
It was predicted to strike above the US city of Denver.
#FictionalEvent
â ESA Operations (@esaoperations) May 1, 2019
We now know that asteroid #2019PDC is a 'contact binary' 200-m in diameter, composed of stone, and would create an 'explosive yield' of 510 Megatonnes (34,000 x Hiroshima bomb)#EXERCISEONLY!!
Find out more about contact binaries here: https://t.co/ut87czoP4g pic.twitter.com/vhUJkybsYP
Based on the now known composition of the rocky asteroid, the simulation anticipated the entire region would be devastated by a force equivalent to 34,000 Hiroshima bombs
So, how could such a catastrophy be averted?
RAPID RESPONSE
Representatives of the United States, Europe, Russia and Chinese space programs determined to build six ‘kinetic impactor’ rockets.
These were intended to strike the asteroid with enough force to divert it from its course, causing it to skim past our planet.
But, even in simulation, it took time to build the rockets.
Technical hurdles had to be addressed.
Launch windows came - and went.
Finally, in August 2024, the ‘impactors’ were launched.
They hit.
But there was a problem.
A large chunk of the asteroid had broken off.
The scramble to figure out where it was headed was terrifying: New York.
LAST-DITCH DEFENCE
A race to launch military nuclear weapons to deflect this 60-meter projectile moving at 70,000 kilometres per hour was choked by political indecision.
With just six months to go, the United States was left with just one choice.
Evacuate.
Prepare for the worst.
Brace for impact.
Naturally, things didn’t go well.
#FictionalEvent
â ESA Operations (@esaoperations) May 3, 2019
The small (fictional!) asteroid #2019PDC will enter Earthâs atmosphere at 19 km/s (43,000 mph) on April 29, producing a large fireball or âmegabolide,â and predicted to release 5 to 20 megatons of energy in the airburst. pic.twitter.com/EpiQS1JwGb
How do you evacuate 10 million people to a tight deadline?
“Two months may not be enough time to really evacuate, because you’re evacuating people who are stuck, who have to rebuild their lives where they’re going. You’re going to have fleets of U-hauls,” said Brandy Johnson, who played the part of an “angry citizen” in the exercise.
Final update on #FICTIONALEVENT:
â ESA Operations (@esaoperations) May 3, 2019
19 April 2027
The 60-m fragment of fictional asteroid #2019PDC is predicted with certainty to impact over the Central Park area in New York City, 10 days from now#ExerciseOnly!!#PlanetaryDefenseðâï¸ pic.twitter.com/g7AcucI9WE
People - be they politicians or the general public - were always the unpredictable factor.
Everything about the asteroid was known.
“If you knew your home was going to be destroyed six months from now, and that you weren’t going back again, would you keep paying your mortgage?” asked Victoria Andrews, NASA’s deputy planetary defense officer.
ARMAGEDDON
The simulated asteroid detonated 15km above New York’s Central Park with the force of 1000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs.
Everything within a 15km radius beneath it was simply obliterated. Nothing surivived.
Manhattan was gone.
Structures as far out as 45km were shattered.
Damage extended outward in a 68km radius.
Look how fast a 60m fragment could cause damage âï¸ seconds is all it takes. People, buildings, jobs all at risk.
â Journey with #Astronaut_Hayden (@carolineGx8) May 3, 2019
Really enjoyed following this exercise all week. Learned so much from it ðâï¸ð¦#FICTIONALEVENT #2019PDC#PlanetaryDefense pic.twitter.com/QypewJTm8M
The next simulation will be run in 2021.
The Planetary Defence team will assemble in Vienna to apply any new refinements to response efforts they have come up with in that time.
Scenario designer Chodas also indicated it could be Europe’s turn to face asteroid armageddon.
EXPLORE MORE: NASA initiates plans to divert killer asteroid Bennu