Fourth Covid wave to hit ‘just in time for Christmas’ as cases of Omicron variants surge

As a swath of new, immunity-resistant Covid variants circulates across Australia, experts have exposed one major issue.

A fresh wave of Covid-19 is under way in Australia’s eastern states, but a major change in how the virus works means an important number will remain unknown.

A “soup” of Omicron variants, including BA.5, BA.2.75, XBB and BQ.1, is driving up case numbers across the country, all with the ability to escape immunity according to NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant.

Dr Chant confirmed NSW was entering its fourth Covid-19 wave.

“The wave is taking off with some trajectory, it will be quite a steep wave and hopefully the decline will be equally as steep,” she told ABC.

NSW is experiencing its fourth wave, according to Dr Kerry Chant. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

“That’s why it’s important the community takes these protective measures now and I can’t stress the urgency – if you’re going to get vaccinated, do it immediately.”

The nation is in a different state than last Christmas, with more variants and lower immunity, according to Deakin University chair of epidemiology Catherine Bennett.

“The big difference between this Christmas and last is that the virus is now circulating in the community. We were only starting to open up this time last year,” Professor Bennett said.

Various subvariants are now circulating in the community according to Professor Catherine Bennett.

“The other difference is that we now have multiple variants, and we haven‘t really had that in the community. It’s usually been one dominant variant or two outbreaks with one getting under control before the other one takes off.”

The subvariants are all “different” from each other, meaning that it’s likely that people who previously had Covid-19 will be reinfected if they come into contact with one or more of the new strains.

“All these new variants are evading immunity. Even if you‘ve been vaccinated, there’s still a chance you’ll be reinfected,” UNSW epidemiologist Abrar Chughatai said.

“Those reinfections that will push up the number of active cases at any one time. It might also push up the number of asymptomatic infections we have,” Professor Bennett said.

Those who haven’t received their booster dose yet are urged to do so by experts and health officials. Picture: Frederic J. Brown / AFP

“We won‘t know how many infections we’ll have. We will just be looking at the impact in terms of people in hospital for Covid.”

The wave has “several causes” and comes “just in time for Christmas”, according to University of South Australia chair of biostatistics Adrian Esterman.

“Many people had their last dose of vaccine over six months ago and by now have comparatively little protection against symptomatic disease,” Professor Esterman said.

“At the same time, we have little or no public health measures in place to put a brake on transmission. The removal of mandatory isolation for infectious people just as new subvariants were on the horizon really was a poor decision.”

Those worried about Covid-19 affecting their Christmas plans are urged to wear masks and follow other social distancing measures. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Tertius Pickard

Though cases are expected to grow, the wave itself will be “small” according to the experts.

“It‘s difficult to predict but an outbreak with very high case numbers is unlikely with it being summer and with our high vaccination rates. You won’t see an overly high number of cases, but they will definitely increase,” Professor Chughatai said.

It‘s also unlikely that Australians will be forced back into lockdown as a result of rising cases, with chief medical officer Paul Kelly saying it was not likely Christmas would be spent under restrictions.

Chief medical officer Paul Kelly says it’s unlikely that Australians will be forced into lockdown over Christmas. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

“You know, that’s not my decision, but I don’t think that that’s likely,” Professor Kelly said on Sunrise.

“My advice at the moment is to be alert but not afraid – I think that would be a good way to look at it.

“Lockdowns won’t work, they don’t work with Omicron … we would only go back to that if we were absolutely desperate. If we had a variant that was bringing serious illness in a way we haven’t seen before, then we might need to resort to more enforced measures,” Professor Bennett said.

There are also some predictions that the rise in cases will peak in November, with Dr Chant saying that the wave is expected to ease by December.

“I expect that we will see a short sharp wave, similar to the recent one in Singapore with a peak by the end of November,” said UNSW School of Population Associate Professor James Wood.

“I also expect this to be smaller than the BA.5 wave but that we will see a considerable rise in hospitalisations and deaths, particularly in people over 65.”

That doesn‘t mean that Australians won’t have to isolate over Christmas, with rising case numbers meaning that some will be infected over the festive season.

“When the virus was around, my advice was always if you want to spend time with loved ones at Christmas, look at what you‘re doing in the weeks up to it,” Professor Bennett said.

“Taking those commonsense cautions like vaccination, social distancing, masking in public places, especially if vulnerable … these measures will together make a real difference,” University of Sydney infectious disease and vaccine expert Robert Booy said.