New Australian tool to measure your risk of Covid-19 infection and vaccination

Australians will be able to take a short online quiz to help determine their individual risk of Covid-19 infection in a bid to help boost the vaccine rate.

A new “accurate, evidence-based” tool could be vital to Australians understanding their risk factors for Covid-19 infection and vaccination.

As vaccine uptake continues to climb across the nation and officials prepare for state and international borders to reopen, the Immunisation Coalition Covid-19 Risk Calculator (CoRiCal) will “help people who are still uncertain about vaccination to consider their decisions and maybe to choose to get vaccinated”, Melbourne-based GP Dr Andrew Baird, told news.com.au.

“Some have suggested that CoRiCal is ‘too late to the party’ and ‘redundant’ due to the relatively high and accelerated uptake of Covid-19 vaccines, particularly in NSW and Victoria,” he said.

“90 per cent [of the eligible population being fully vaccinated] is good. But not good enough. That is still two million Australians aged 16 and over who are unvaccinated and at risk of Covid-19.

“Allowing for a conservative fatality rate of one per cent, that’s potentially 20,000 deaths, and allowing for a conservative long Covid rate of 10 per cent, that’s potentially 200,000 people developing long Covid with the adverse health, psychological, and social consequences that are associated with this.”

A new tool could be vital to Australians understanding their risk factors for Covid-19 infection and vaccination. Picture: Supplied

As Australia opens up, Dr Baird added, “there will be many more cases of Covid-19, and consequently much higher transmission rates in the community”.

“Therefore, people who are unvaccinated will be at much higher risk of getting Covid-19 than when rates were lower under lockdown.”

Which is where CoRiCal — launched today by the Immunisation Coalition in collaboration with Australian researchers — comes in.

“This tool is really designed to help people make an informed decision around vaccination based on their current circumstances and also see their risk for getting Covid-19 under different transmission scenarios,” University of Queensland virologist Dr Kirsty Short, one of three co-leader researchers on the project, explained.

“Users can access the tool and input their age, sex, community transmission and vaccination status to find out their personalised risk calculation.”

For example, Dr Short explained, “you can find out your chance of being infected with Covid-19 versus your chance of dying from the disease”.

The tool could help GPs save time and create an accurate assessment of an individual’s risk of Covid-19 or one of the vaccines. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Daniel Pockett

CoRiCal can also help Aussies find out their “chance of developing an atypical blood clot from the AstraZeneca vaccine and see this data in the context of other relatable risks — like getting struck by lightning or winning OzLotto”.

The inspiration behind the calculator, Dr Baird said, was two-fold.

“Firstly, people’s uncertainty and hesitancy about getting vaccinated — particularly earlier in the year when transmission rates of Covid-19 were low or nil, and people did not see Covid-19 as a problem, and particularly following the adverse publicity about atypical clot disorders, a very rare adverse effect of the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine,” he said.

“Secondly, GPs did not have access to regularly updated resources to help them in their discussions with patients about Covid-19 vaccines. CoRiCal aims to address this issue.”

Currently in its pilot stage, the calculator will be continuously updated in line with the latest health and scientific advice, including risk assessments on Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, pre-existing medical conditions such as obesity and diabetes, and long Covid.

It can also be easily adapted for use with higher transmission rates, new variants, booster doses, other vaccines, overseas populations, other infectious diseases, and future pandemics.

“It presents risk using simple bar-charts, so that it’s easy to compare the risks for different outcomes related to Covid-19 and vaccines,” Dr Baird said.

“CoRiCal may help Australia to move towards 90 per cent, 95 per cent, or even more of the 16 and over population being fully vaccinated.

“The higher the rate of vaccination in the population, the better it will be individuals, communities, mental health, health services, and the country.”

Immunisation Coalition Scientific Advisory Committee member, Flinders University Associate Professor John Litt, told news.com.au he hoped the tool would help GPs save time and create an accurate assessment of an individual’s risk of Covid-19 or one of the vaccines.

“GPs have spent a lot of time trying to both inform patients, answer questions and counter misperceptions,” he said.

“We hope this tool would assist them to address issues and perceived risks by providing a simple but evidence-based interactive tool.”

Echoing Dr Baird’s sentiment, he said the tool “will continue to be useful as booster vaccines will be required to give ongoing protection against Covid”.