NBN winners and losers: New cost benefit analysis predicts growth of TV viewing on computer

THE big winners of the NBN will be data-hungry households downloading TV shows, as research shows Australians will be $16bn better off under a Coalition plan.

THE big winners of the National Broadband Network will be data-hungry households downloading TV shows to watch on computer. But businesses will gain little extra from the giant infrastructure rollout.

Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull says Australians will be $16 billion better off under the coalition’s broadband plan after a scathing cost-benefit analysis of Labor’s National Broadband Network.

The coalition has released an independent report into the NBN, which has found its cut-price network would deliver a net economic boost of $18 billion compared with $2 billion for Labor’s gold-plated version.

Mr Turnbull said the analysis justified the government’s decision to move to a mix of technologies, including fibre-to-the-node and fixed wireless, and abandon Labor’s reliance on expensive fibre-to-the-premises connections.

“When you do the cost benefit analysis ... which takes into account all of the social benefits to the whole society - e-health, education, the works - the approach we’re taking is $16 billion better,” Mr Turnbull told ABC radio.

Research delivered by the cost benefit analysis shows gains to households will be about $34 billion, reports the Australian newspaper, while businesses will gain just $6.2 billion.

The analysis also found the multi-billion dollar benefits of broadband access, regardless of the model, are likely to end arguments that the ambitious project should be dumped altogether.

The long overdue analysis was written by a panel headed by former public servant Michael Vertigan, and included well-known Labor NBN critic Henry Ergas.

It fulfils an election promise by the Coalition to do a cost-benefit analysis of the NBN but is under fire from Labor whose Communication spokesman Jason Claire said last night Mr Turnbull had “hand picked people that he knows will give him the answer he wants”.

Research from the analysis predicts a steep growth in the viewing of television online over the next decade, with online TV viewing growing from about 80 minutes a month now to about 47 minutes a day for adults by 2023.

According to The Australian, research in the analysis shows video is the major driver of internet traffic. Music and video downloads — most of which are illegal — account for about a third of all download traffic at present.

Other key findings include the number of people using high definition TVs expected to rise from 20 per cent to 80 per cent over the next decade while online game use will also grow to a monthly average of 7.5 hours per player.

The Australian also reported that more than 40 per cent people of consumers are signing up to the slowest and cheapest broadband plans available — the 12 megabit per second (Mbps) download package, which has an average cost of $75.50 per month.

The fastest download package with 100Mbps was the third most popular package with an average cost per month of $101.50.

Mr Turnbull said last night he was committed to rural services and is not surprised the review found them expensive. He told the Australian that city users would wind up paying subsidies to support use by country users.