Why China’s new Taiwan move is a huge disaster for Australia
The first of Australia’s $368 billion nuclear submarine fleet won’t be operational before the 2040s. But China’s not sitting idly by.
The first of Australia’s $368 billion nuclear submarine fleet won’t be operational before the 2040s. But China’s not sitting idly by.
Reports suggest it is already actively working to “seal off” Taiwan and the South China Sea from all unwanted underwater intruders.
Taiwan’s Institute of National Defence and Security Research believes Beijing is preparing to impose an “underwater denial zone” to make it so dangerous for unwanted submarines that they’ll be forced to stay away from the “First Island Chain”.
Research fellow Su Tzu-yun told local media that China’s recent “encirclement” exercise, held in retaliation for President Tsai Ing-wen’s visit to the United States, demonstrated it was awake to the submarine threat.
Beijing named the snap April 8-10 military exercises “Joint Sword” in what it said was recognition of the effort to test combined air, ground and sea forces “under real combat conditions”.
But it also cemented the anti-submarine warfare role into a new position of prominence.
Some 73 per cent of the aircraft that have probed Taiwan’s “Air Defence Zone” so far this year have been long-range strike fighters. But by far the most commonly deployed support aircraft has been the Shaanxi Y-8Q anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft.
These have generally focused their attention on the deepwater Luzon Strait separating Taiwan from the main Philippine island of Luzon. This is just one of a handful of channels linking the South China Sea to the Pacific Ocean and is a regular transit point for US aircraft carrier battle groups and submarines.
But the “Joint Sword” exercise saw ship-launched anti-submarine helicopters join this hunt for the first time in a sustained way.
“The PLA might be aiming to turn the waters to the east and southwest into ‘underwater denial zones’,” Su warns.
“The future of undersea warfare is likely to be a major determinant of the long-term military balance between China and the United States,” argues a prize-winning essay published by the US Naval Institute Proceedings magazine.
“From the Chinese perspective, so long as it cannot definitively defend against US undersea threats, it will never be able to claim true control over its adjacent seas.”
Underwater hide-and-seek
During the military demonstration earlier this month, five Chinese Harbin Z-9 anti-submarine helicopters were reported active along Taiwan’s northern, eastern and southeastern nautical boundaries. They were likely deployed from Chinese Type 054 anti-submarine frigates operating nearby, Mr Su said.
But it’s also possible more were operating out of sight, as similar helicopters also form part of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Shandong aircraft carrier’s air group. And it spent several weeks operating several hundred kilometres off Taiwan’s eastern coast.
Combined with regular patrols by land-based Shaanxi Y-8Q anti-submarine aircraft, Su says this allows China to locate and intercept any Taiwanese or allied submarine operating in what had until recently been considered “safe” waters.
“Taiwan’s armed forces operate outdated submarines, which nevertheless need to be neutralised if the PLA commences a reunification-by-force operation,” an anonymous Beijing-based military expert told the state-controlled Global Times.
“Possible external military interference forces like the US and Japan have more advanced submarines, particularly US’ nuclear-powered ones, so practising anti-submarine warfare drills in the real underwater terrains around the Taiwan island is very significant, the expert said.
The floor of the Philippine Sea is a complex mix of ridges, deep trenches and broad basins. Ideal for the cat-and-mouse game of submarine combat. And the winner is often determined by who knows how to best exploit such terrain.
“The information found on these missions would be valuable for PLA submarines to predict the movements of Taiwanese submarines,” adds Su.
Capability gap
Submarine and anti-submarine warfare have long been considered a weak spot in China’s military capabilities. And the submarines operated by Japan and the United States are especially advanced.
“These were strange oversights for a country constructing a massive surface fleet,” Mike Sweeney writes in Proceedings.
But, he adds, it is now moving quickly to fill that gap.
It’s begun adding advanced sonar sensors to its new frigates and corvettes, developed a missile-deployed torpedo, and deployed a growing fleet of ASW aircraft.
The Luzon Strait and the Miyako Strait between Japan and Taiwan are on the edge of Chinese land-based air power. And Beijing may be building its aircraft carriers to protect and support forces attempting to close these shipping gateways.
“They’re going to put ships out probably to the east of Taiwan,” US Air Force General Kenneth Wilsbach told an aerospace engineering event last month. “And when they take away that airspace, it takes away our ability to have freedom of manoeuvre, and to create effects via airpower — until you can attrite those ships.”
Their most formidable opponent would be submarines.
This is why Liaoning and Shandong carry the Z-18K helicopter. It has a retractable sonar array that can be “dipped” into the water at varying depths to emit “pings” of sound. These reflect back to paint a picture of the sea floor and any nearby submarines.
But the most dangerous opponent for a submarine remains another submarine.
“It will be submarines, not aircraft carriers, that determine the future of Chinese naval power,” Sweeney argues.
Moscow’s final bargaining chip
“The drills displayed that the PLA can detect, locate and attack hostile submarines from multiple dimensions, and defend against their attacks,” declares the Global Times.
But Western analysts generally describe Beijing’s diesel and nuclear-powered submarines as several decades behind the current state-of-the-art.
“If the PLAN was able to deploy super-quiet SSNs on par with the best US and Russian boats, that would represent a major strategic change — not only for its ability to defend on the open ocean but also in terms of China’s capacity to threaten naval forces well outside the first island chain,” Sweeny says.
For the moment, that’s outside Beijing’s abilities.
Moscow resisted transferring its acoustic quietening technology to China. And it doubled down on this decision after Beijing was caught attempting to hack into its submarine design bureau in 2021.
“But this could change if Russia becomes overly dependent on China in the face of ongoing failures in Ukraine,” Sweeney adds.
Once delivered, China has already demonstrated its ability to mass-produce modern warships.
The United States currently has about 50 operational attack submarines. About 20 of those are based in the Pacific. And only six or seven of these are operational at any one time.
Sweeney argues ensuring the growth of this submarine force may be as crucial as recognising the power of aircraft carriers over battleships in World War II.
“Just as the Navy was able to transition from the battleship to the aircraft carrier during the interwar period, refocusing today on undersea warfare as the primary mode of combat is not impossible,” he writes.
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel
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