Vladimir Putin’s mobilisation plan backfires as analysts pinpoint flaws in desperate move

President Vladimir Putin’s desperate attempt to restore Russian military numbers in Ukraine has dramatically backfired.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its eighth month, Vladimir Putin’s new partial mobilisation tactics have seemingly backfired.

On September 21, the Russian President ordered a partial mobilisation for some of the country’s citizens as a means to combat the scale of Moscow troop casualties from the war.

Since March, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claim to have killed or injured over 45,000 members of Russian forces, with the most deaths occurring in eastern Donetsk and southern Mykolaiv regions.

Now, Russians in the reserves and those who have previously served are to be conscripted “to protect (the) motherland” after Putin called on them in a prerecorded televised address on Wednesday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announcing partial mobilisation plan to nation in televised address. Picture: AFP / Kremlin.ru

“To ensure the safety of our people and people in the liberated territories, I consider it necessary to support the proposal of the defence ministry and the General Staff to conduct a partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation,” he said.

The mobilisation would see 300,000 men called upon to join the country’s vast reserve of approximately 25 million people, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said.

Putin also announced that those conscripted would receive additional military training prior to their deployment.

But two days on from Putin’s announcement, analysts have already noticed flaws in his government’s plan after Russian opposition outlets and Telegram channels leaked information suggesting the mobilisation system will fail.

Eligibility criteria overlooked

According to a number of reports from military bloggers (milbloggers) and social media, Russian military recruitment centres, enlistment officials and local administrations are mobilising men who don’t meet the criteria as specified by Shoigu, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said.

Additionally, unverified information suggests the Kremlin is seeking to mobilise 1.2 million men, four times the number publicly promised by Shoigu with mobilisation to be complete by November 10.

And in a sign that Russia is perhaps acting in desperation, numerous complaints from the public posted to social media imply older men, students, employees of military industries and civilians with no previous military experience are receiving illegal mobilisation notices.

“Some milbloggers noted that Russian enlistment personnel are assigning men with prior military service to very different specialisations from those in which they served, while other sources recounted instances of military recruitment centres mobilising men with chronic illnesses,” the ISW said in a statement.

Despite Shoigu’s eligibility criteria, those with no previous military experience are being mobilised to join Russia’s reserves. Picture: Olga Maltseva / AFP

Additionally, milbloggers have suggested that enlistment staff are only mobilising such men due to their requirement to meet quotas and are failing to adhere to the envisioned mobilisation plan because they are “unmotivated and underpaid”.

As a result, analysts have warned that such conscription could see inexperienced recruits fighting in a war that they’re not prepared for at little benefit to Russia.

“Challenges and errors in the first days of executing a large-scale and demanding partial mobilisation in the midst of a failing war are not necessarily surprising, although they suggest that the Russian military mobilisation infrastructure was not better prepared for a major war than the Russian armed forces themselves,” the ISW said.

A map of where Ukraine stands following Russia's invasion on February 24. Picture: 2022 Institute for the Study of War

Disparities causing distrust

Such discrepancies between what was stated by Putin in his public address compared to what Russians and milbloggers are reporting on social media are also contributing to a loss in public trust towards the Russian government.

According to the ISW, one milblogger stated the inadequate handling of such mobilisation is seeing an increase in “separatist movements” and opposition media who are against the country’s leadership.

Another blogger suggested that the Kremlin’s inability to fix flaws in the country’s mobilisation practices would contribute to heightened levels of distrust in Russia’s military-political leadership.

There’s also been reports that Russians are turning on military recruitment centres and staff by vandalising buildings and fighting with enlistment officers and mobilisation representatives.

It comes as several Russians took to the streets to contest Putin’s mobilisation plan and legislations put in place proceeding the announcement.

“A failed or badly flawed partial mobilisation campaign may risk further alienation of the Russian nationalist crowd that has been supportive of the war and mobilisation,” the ISW said.

Map revealing the number of confirmed Russian protests against mobilisation across the country from September 23. Picture: 2022 Institute for the Study of War

On top of that, it could be implied that new laws imposed on mobilised citizens could come at a cost to the government as those who were unable to flee the country in time now face the prospect of being forced to fight in war.

Servicemen who desert, surrender “without authorisation”, refuse to fight or disobey orders can face up to 10 years imprisonment under new legislation which Putin signed on Saturday.

Additionally, in a separate law, foreigners who enlist in the Russian army will be granted easier access to citizenship within the country.

The legislations came into effect after thousands of military-aged men left the country hours after Putin’s mobilisation announcement, seeing flights out of the country at capacity and some 2,300 private vehicles waiting to cross into Georgia.

Police officers detain a man in Saint Petersburg on September 24, 2022, following calls to protest against the partial mobilisation announced by the Russian President. Picture: AFP

A plan that could split the country

One final flaw the ISW has pointed out in Russia’s mobilisation plan is its capacity to further divide the nation.

Leader of the Russian republic Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov stated in a live TV broadcast that his leadership will not conduct mobilisation within the region as “it has already exceeded an unspecified force generation plan by 254 per cent”.

The republic has already deployed 20,000 servicemen to fight against Ukraine since February 24.

“If one of the war’s most vociferous and aggressive advocates feels the need to refuse to mobilise his people, at least publicly, that could indicate that even Kadyrov senses the popular resentment the partial mobilisation will cause and possibly even fears it,” The ISW said.