Putin and Kim’s ‘ominous’ new move rattles West
Putin and Kim have rattled Western capitals with a shock new military agreement that serves as a working “reminder to Americans”.
Amid the pomp in Pyongyang, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un made a chilling move few people were expecting.
It was widely thought that during their summit, there would be warm words about “closer ties,” Putin would offer Kim some Russian technological assistance and, under the table, Kim would quietly give Putin a whole load of weapons in return.
But the pair went further, signing a new military pact which has Western capitals – from Washington to Seoul – worried.
One commentator has called the new “mutual defence agreement” signed on Wednesday as “ominously ambiguous”.
It could see the nuclear armed nations rushing to one another’s aid militarily under a vague set of circumstances.
And the NATO style pact could be warning to the US about its military support for Ukraine.
However, to some, it’s all words and “nothing new”. While China may also push to have any deal watered down.
North Korea’s capital of Pyongyang has been awash with Russian flags and dictator style portraits of Putin as he made his first trip to the autocratic nation in 24 years.
US secretary of state Anthony Blinken said the meeting was an act of “desperation” by Russia to curry favour with anyone that can aid its “war of aggression”.
The Russian President does need more ammunition. North Korea has duly obliged shipping thousands of shells and missiles to Russia that have been used to destroy infrastructure and kill Ukranians.
In return, the North Korean despot wants Russian technology to bolster his military arsenal, help in evading sanctions the United Nations has imposed because of its nuclear weapons program and probably a whole lot of food aid too.
In years gone by, Russia has tried to contain North Korea, which it shares a border with, and to temper its nuclear ambitions. Erratic autocrats and nukes are a concerning mix.
But with Moscow running out of friends and suffering from sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin has put those concerns aside.
Russia-NK pact to thwart ‘aggression’
At the signing, Putin reasserted his vision for a “multipolar world,” which is effectively a return to the late 20th century when Washington and Moscow squared off at one another – but perhaps with the addition of Beijing.
“Today, we are fighting together against the hegemonist and neo-colonial practices of the United States and its satellites,” Putin said, ignoring that his invasion of Ukraine was the clearest recent example of neo-colonialism in action.
The new mutual defence agreement was part of a wide ranging strategic treaty. It comes days after the US and Ukraine signed an expanded security alliance.
“It is really a breakthrough document,” Putin told a news conference in the North Korean capital, adding that it provided, “among other things, for mutual assistance in case of aggression against one of the parties to this treaty”, Russian news agencies said.
Details are scant, but it could be similar to NATO’s article 5 where an attack on one member is an attack on all. Or it might not mean that, given how broad the term “assistance” is.
“Overused Western propaganda tropes can no longer hide their aggressive geopolitical intentions, including in north western Asia,” said Putin despite the fact it’s North Korea that has increasing threatened democratic South Korea.
Kim told reporters that his country could respond “without hesitation” to “incidents or wars” without specifying what those “incidents” might be.
Putin brought up the prospect of the West giving Ukraine advanced fighter jets and some NATO nations, including the US, allowing the use of their missiles by Ukraine on Russian territory.
Kyiv has said that a previous bar on its using Western missiles to strike military targets inside Russia was effectively giving Moscow an advantage. Putin has responded by saying Moscow could, in turn, donate missiles to its allies to strike Western targets.
That raises the possibility of Russia giving weapons to North Korea that it could use against the South where US troops are based.
Kim insisted the pact was “thoroughly peaceful and defensive” in nature. While Putin mouthpiece Dimity Peskov said the pact was “not against anyone, but for the benefit of ourselves. For the benefit of the interests of the peoples of our two countries”.
‘Ominously ambiguous’
But BBC diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams said the commitment was “ambiguous” and perhaps deliberately so to keep the West guessing.
“The two countries are clearly upgrading their ties, to the dismay of the Western world.
“But what do the two countries mean by ‘mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement’?”
For instance, there was no word on whether Russia would use its nuclear weapons to defend Pyongyang in the same way the US has said it would defend Seoul. Or whether North Korean soldiers might crop up in Ukraine.
Putin added that Russia “does not rule out military-technical co-operation” with North Korea, which Pyongyang could use to improve its own nuclear weapons or put satellites into space.
But, Putin also didn’t guarantee such co-operation either.
“Perhaps the two leaders will prefer for (the agreement) to remain ominously ambiguous,” said Adams.
‘Reminder to Americans’
Vladimir Tikhonov, professor of Korean Studies at the University of Oslo, told AFP that Russia will now “largely sabotage the sanctions regime around North Korea, in deed if not in word”.
The new mutual support clause is “a reminder to Americans that Russia may complicate their lives if they support Ukraine too enthusiastically”, he said, pointing to the around 28,000 US troops based in South Korea.
The deal between Moscow and Pyongyang, “may make US military planning on the Korean Peninsula a much more complex affair”, Prof Tikhonov said.
However, some North Korea watchers have played down the agreement commenting that Russia has no interest in a conflict in Korea.
“There is nothing fundamentally new about this relationship today that was not true before Putin’s visit,” Patrick M Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the US’ Hudson Institute told the Wall Street Journal.
He pointed out its vagueness meant there was no promise of an automatic military commitment.
And then there’s China which has a longer history with North Korea and far closer political and economic ties than Russia. It is attempting to keep Western nations at least partly on side. It will also be concerned that the pact could push South Korea and Japan closer together which could, in turn, harm its geopolitical goals.
Beijing may prefer that agreement remains little more than words.
Putin’s next stop after North Korea is Vietnam.
The communist south east Asian nation is a powerhouse and has far warmer relations internationally, including with the US, than North Korea.
But Putin’s presence in Hanoi will further rattle the West who will fear that the Russia autocrat may be making gains on the international stage.
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