‘Legitimate concern’ over Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threat

Vladimir Putin has used some ominous language about Russia using nuclear weapons and one expert says we should be worried.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has given an ominous warning on nuclear weapons as he uses “partial mobilisation” to bolster the country’s forces in Ukraine.

“Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the prevailing winds can turn in their direction,” Mr Putin said in a speech last week, according to an English translation.

Professor Stephan Fruehling from Australian National University told news.com.au’s I’ve Got News For You podcast Mr Putin using nuclear weapons was a “legitimate concern”.

“I think it’s something that we do need to be worried about, even though it shouldn’t deter us from supporting Ukraine,” he said.

“How high that likelihood is we don’t know and probably he doesn’t know either,” Prof Fruehling continued.

“But in the end, obviously, it all comes down to what Putin will decide and if he actually faces losing the war and perhaps also losing his power and maybe his own life if the regime gets challenged internally.

“So if there are no other good options, I think there is a legitimate concern that he may actually then still see nuclear weapons as a circuit breaker.”

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Russian President Vladimir Putin has given the world a new warning about nuclear weapons. Picture: Ilya Pitalev/Sputnik/AFP

He said the only “militarily significant” thing a single or limited use of nuclear weapons could probably achieve for Mr Putin would be to take out the Ukrainian leadership in the country’s capital Kyiv to proclaim he has achieved his original objective of the so-called “denazifying” of Ukraine.

“So I think that there are some concerns, not necessarily because Putin is kind of prone to using nuclear weapons, although he obviously likes to and it is beneficial for him to create this danger in the minds of the West in order to reduce their support for Ukraine” Prof Fruehling explained.

“But ultimately, it comes down to what if nuclear weapons in his view are the least bad of a bunch of very bad options?”

In contrast, Professor Graeme Gill from the University of Sydney said he doesn’t think Mr Putin will follow through with nuclear weapons “at all” and does not even see his recent choice of language as a threat.

“What he said was exactly the same thing that he said two years ago and that is that if Russia is in danger of being attacked or of being dismembered or its major interests are being infringed upon, he will take all measures possible to prevent that from happening,” Prof Gill said.

“As I say, he said this two years ago. It’s a standard position and he was just reiterating it. Now, clearly there was a greater sense of menace in him saying at this time because of the actual situation.

“But I don’t think that the likelihood of a resort to nuclear weapons is any greater now than it was back then because he understands the ramifications of using nuclear weapons.”

He said those ramifications would be bad for Russia, not just in the short-term, but in the long-term as well.

Australia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong has slammed Mr Putin’s comments about nuclear weapons. Picture: Gary Ramage/NCA NewsWire

Prof Gill said if strategic nuclear weapons were used – those that can wipe out cities – it would potentially bring in other powers like NATO countries.

If tactical nuclear weapons are used on the battlefield, he said it would be less likely other powers in the West would involve themselves.

Australia’s response to Russia’s threat

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong slammed Mr Putin’s “unthinkable and irresponsible” threats of invoking nuclear warfare speaking outside the United Nations General Assembly last week.

Her opposition counterpart, Simon Birmingham, echoed her sentiments, saying any threat regarding the use of nuclear weapons was “deeply disturbing”.

“The moral threats in relation to nuclear weapons are nothing but reckless, destabilising, and indeed the types of actions the whole world (should) condemn,” he said.

Military mobilisation

Russia has ordered students, the elderly and sick people to report for duty in a chaotic start to its troop call-up for Ukraine, forcing authorities on Sunday to promise to fix the mistake.

When Mr Putin announced a partial mobilisation last week, he said only people with “relevant” skills or military experience would be concerned.

The announcement to mobilise up to 300,000 additional troops to fight in Ukraine sparked anti-war protests across the country.

More than 2000 people have been detained in Russia, including at least at least 872 on the weekend, according to independent monitoring and human rights group OVD-Info.

Military-age men have also fled the country in their thousands.

Huge traffic queues have been seen at some border posts and airfares to leave Russia skyrocketed.