Israel expects Gaza conflict to rage until at least the end of 2024
As calls for an end to the horrific scenes unfolding in the Middle East continue, a senior Israeli official dropped a prediction that put another cloud over Gaza.
No matter what you think of the horrific conflict that continues to unfold in Gaza, there has been a question on everybody’s lips for months.
When will it all end?
With several thousand civilians dead, humanitarian groups have ferociously campaigned for months to end the assault on Gaza’s population. Israel has continued with its retaliation to the October 7 terror attacks, vowing to eradicate Hamas.
Overnight, US President Joe Biden said Israel had offered a new roadmap towards a permanent peace in Gaza,— a plan that has been welcomed by other nations.
However, many still believe the conflict is far from over.
The conflict was ignited by Hamas’s October 7 attack on southern Israel, resulting in 1,189 deaths, most of which were civilians, according to Israeli figures.
Hamas militants also took 252 hostages, with 121 still in Gaza, including 37 the army believes are dead.
As Israel continues to face condemnation for its assault on Rafah, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi has said that he expects fighting in the Gaza Strip to last for the remainder of 2024.
“The fighting in Gaza will continue for at least another seven months,” he declared in an interview with Israeli media this week.
Hanegbi also said that the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) now controls 75 per cent of the Philadelphia corridor, a strategic 13-kilometer stretch along Gaza’s southern border with Egypt.
Israel aims to gain full control of the corridor, which has served as a buffer between Gaza and Egypt since Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from Gaza and has long been suspected of being a weapons route for armed groups.
It came as Amir Avivi, Director-General of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF) said Israel’s occupation could lead to a “total collapse” of Palestine.
Contrary to Hanegbi’s prediction, Avivi believes that if the IDF can “end the war within two months”.
“The occupation of Rafah may lead to the beginning of a total collapse. The decisive battle will take place there, both military and security,” he said.
“That’s why we have to enter it with planes, artillery, and tanks. We must defeat it because we are in a decisive moment. If we destroy Rafah and take responsibility for the humanitarian aid, we can end the war within two months.”
Meanwhile, The UN Security Council is convening for another of emergency talks after a recent strike sparked a fire that Gaza officials say killed 45 people and injured around 250.
Eight months into what has become the deadliest Gaza war on record, Israel faces increasing international opposition and cases before two international courts in the Netherlands. Algeria has proposed a UN resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire and the release of all hostages.
Chinese ambassador Fu Cong hopes for a vote this week, with President Xi Jinping expressing his deep concern over Gaza’s situation.
French UN ambassador Nicolas de Riviere called for urgent action to reduce civilian deaths.
“This is a matter of life and death,” he said.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres joined many other leaders in expressing outrage at the violence, demanding that the “horror must stop”.
In the beleaguered city of Rafah, fighting has escalated, with helicopters and artillery intensifying their attacks. Hamas’s military wing responded with rocket fire aimed at Israeli troops, with footage from AFPTV showing Palestinians with severe injuries being taken to the European Hospital near Khan Younis.
The US has urged Israel to avoid a full-scale offensive in Rafah due to the high risk to civilians. However, the White House stated that Israel has not yet crossed President Joe Biden’s “red lines”.
A steady stream of civilians is continuously fleeing Rafah, carrying their belongings on their shoulders, cars, or donkey-drawn carts.
The United Nations reported that up to 1.4 million people were sheltering there before the offensive began on May 7. Since then, a million have fled, according to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labelled Sunday’s deadly strike and ensuing fire as a “tragic accident”, as criticism from rights organisations rained down on the IDF and its supporters.
Further strikes hit other areas of Gaza, including intense gunfire from Israeli military vehicles east of Gaza City and strikes on Jabalia.
The city of Jabalia has been almost completely destroyed, according to one resident who spoke to Al Jazeera.
“Look at the scale of destruction in Jabalia. The Israelis have destroyed us. They are actually testing their missiles on us,” one resident returning to the city said.
Israeli forces have partially withdrawn, meaning local militias will be moving to reinforce their position and strike back in due course.
“Hamas and other Palestinian militias will almost certainly resume their efforts to reconstitute in Jabalia as Israeli forces withdraw. There are remaining pockets around Jabalia that Israeli forces have not cleared,” the Institute for the Study of War said in a recent report.
“Hamas will capitalise on these remaining forces to rebuild their capabilities and networks in and around Jabalia. Hamas will survive in the Gaza Strip without a post-war plan that involves an alternative to Hamas rule.”
‘Time for this war to end’
US President Joe Biden said Friday Israel had offered a new roadmap towards a permanent peace in Gaza, urging Hamas to accept the surprise deal as it was “time for this war to end.” In his first major address outlining a solution to the conflict, Biden said the three-phase proposal starts with a six-week complete ceasefire that would see Israeli forces withdraw from all populated areas of Gaza.
“It’s time for this war to end, for the day after to begin,” Biden said in a televised address from the White House.
“Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal. It’s a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages,” he said.
The 81-year-old Democrat is under pressure at home to bring an end to the Gaza war ahead of a tight US presidential election in November against Donald Trump, with nationwide campus protests and anger in his own party.
Biden said the onus for peace was on the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose attack on key US ally Israel on October 7 last year trigged the grinding conflict in Gaza.
“Hamas needs to take the deal,” said Biden, who has supported Israel with billions of dollars in military aid since the conflict began.
But Biden said he had also urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders not to “lose this moment,” saying Israel’s offensive had significantly degraded Hamas.
“Hamas is no longer is capable of carrying out another October 7,” said Biden, in comments which will be seen as indicating he believes Israel has achieved its war goals and should ease off.
Biden said the first six-week phase would include a “full and complete ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza, release of a number of hostages, including women, the elderly, the wounded, in exchange for release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.” Israel and Hamas would then negotiate during those six weeks for a lasting ceasefire -- but the truce would continue if the talks remained underway, Biden said.
“As long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, a temporary ceasefire would become, in the words of the Israeli proposal, the cessation of hostilities permanently,” added Biden.
A third phase would involve years of internationally backed reconstruction.
‘Sheer hell’
Biden’s announcement comes after repeated attempts to end the war have stalled -- and signs that the deal may already be dead on arrival.
Netanyahu said after Biden’s speech that the Gaza war would not end until the “elimination” of Hamas’s capacity to govern and make war.
Hamas, which received the proposal on Wednesday through mediator Qatar, insists that any ceasefire should be permanent.
The group said earlier Friday it had informed mediators it would only agree to a “comprehensive” truce agreement including a hostage-prisoner swap if Israel halts its “aggression.”
Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’s Qatar-based political office, reiterated that the group’s core demands -- including a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal -- “are non-negotiable.” A senior US official said however that the new Israeli proposal was “almost identical” to what Hamas itself had offered a few weeks ago -- admitting that there were still “small gaps.” Biden did not significantly address Israel’s assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The Israeli army said Friday its troops had pushed into the city center despite international objections.
Biden acknowledged however that Palestinians were enduring “sheer hell.” The US president has been under international pressure over his support for Israel since a deadly strike on Rafah set ablaze a crowded camp on Sunday. Gaza officials said 45 people were killed and about 250 wounded.
The White House however said this week that while the Israeli strike was “devastating,” it did not breach Biden’s red lines for withholding weapons deliveries to the key US ally
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