Fatal flaw in Vladimir Putin’s North Korea plan
The Russian president thought buddying up with Kim Jong-un was the perfect plan, however he overlooked a crucial detail and it could backfire spectacularly.
It’s been labelled a ballistic bromance. With photographs emerging of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un embracing and grinning from ear-to-ear in various locations during the Russian president’s recent visit, clearly the two leaders were having a ball. Plus, they had the perfect plan all figured out - or so it seemed.
Putin landed at Pyongyang’s airport on Wednesday where he was met with a red carpet and ceremonial gunfire, along with thousands of cheering children and marching soldiers as part of the secretive country’s military spectacle.
The Russian leader was in North Korea to sign what Kim Jong-un has called an alliance, where each country would assist the other in the face of any aggression.
“It is really a breakthrough document,” Putin said at a news conference in the North Korean capital, adding it provided, “among other things, for mutual assistance in case of aggression against one of the parties”, Russian news agencies said.
Kim said the two countries’ ties had now risen “to a new high of alliance”.
Putin also invited his host to join him in Russia, and gifted his host a luxury car by Russian carmaker Aurus before taking him for a drive.
At first glance, it appeared to have been a successful trip for Putin. However, there’s a detail that perhaps he didn’t foresee.
Russia’s position in the international arena could be weakened by this agreement with North Korea, a poor and isolated nation, in what appears to be a desperate move. It could even backfire, and lead to Ukraine, its enemy, receiving more support.
What a turnaround. Just a few years ago, Russia supported sanctions that were designed to punish North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. However, now with sanctions impacting its economy, Moscow has been forced to turn to Kim’s supply of Soviet-era weapons.
Despite the leaders denying these claims, satellite photos of North Korean missiles discovered in Ukraine suggest otherwise.
What’s next, is a concern.
“North Korea’s regime shows little regard for human life, even the lives of its own people,” North Korea expert Sung-Yoon Lee from the Wilson Centre told the BBC.
“I would not be surprised if Putin and Kim work out a deal for North Korea to send into Russia – not only labourers and technicians – but perhaps even combat troops in the months to come.”
The two countries have been allies since North Korea’s founding after World War II and have drawn even closer since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
North Korea has been accused of providing ammunition and missiles to Russia for its war in Ukraine. The new treaty was sure to spark concern of more deliveries.
Putin also said Russia “does not rule out military-technical co-operation with the DPRK in connection with the treaty”, referring to North Korea by its official name.
Kim called Putin the “dearest friend of the Korean people” and said his country “expresses full support and solidarity to the Russian government” over the war in Ukraine, which has triggered rafts of sanctions on Moscow.
Putin thanked Kim, saying Moscow appreciated the “consistent and unwavering” support.
North Korea has been under a UN sanctions regime since 2006 due to its weapons program.
Strong opposition from South Korea, US
Putin’s move has pushed the US and its regional allies closer together, and it could all prove a huge mistake for the Russian president.
Firstly, a furious South Korea, which had warned the North not to cross any “red lines” prior to the visit, will review its stance on not providing military support for Ukraine, National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin said.
The South is the ninth-largest arms exporter and is aiming for the number four spot by 2027, so it’s a powerhouse for defence exports. So far, it hasn’t provided weapons directly to Ukraine due to its Foreign Trade Act.
But could that soon change? If so, that would be a massive move, giving Ukraine a huge boost, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Specific measures will be revealed later, and it will be interesting to see how Russia responds, rather than revealing our plans in advance,” a presidential official told reporters.
The South also placed another 243 Russian items on the sanction list, bringing the total to 1402.
It comes as a US aircraft carrier arrived in South Korea on Saturday for a joint military drills aimed to better counter North Korean threats, Seoul’s navy said.
The announcement came a day after South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador to Seoul to protest the defence deal signed by Putin and Kim.
“The US Navy’s aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt … arrived at the Busan Naval Base on the morning of June 22,” the South Korean Navy said.
Its arrival “demonstrates the strong combined defence posture of the South Korea-US alliance and their firm resolve to respond to the escalating threats from North Korea,” it added.
The carrier’s visit comes around seven months after another US aircraft carrier, the USS Carl Vinson, came to the South in a show of strength against Pyongyang.
The USS Theodore Roosevelt is expected to participate in joint exercises with South Korea and Japan this month.
The US, South Korea and Japan have expanded their joint training exercises and heightened the visibility of strategic US military assets in the region to deter the North.
The US State Department, when asked by AFP about Putin’s visit to North Korea, said “deepening co-operation between Russia and the DPRK is a trend that should be of great concern to anyone interested in maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula”.
The spokesperson added: “As we have said before, we don’t believe any country should give Mr. Putin a platform to promote his war of aggression against Ukraine. Russia is blatantly violating the UN Charter and working to undermine the international system.”
Meanwhile, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said a threat by Putin to send weapons to North Korea “is incredibly concerning”.
Speaking on Thursday in Vietnam, Putin would not rule out Moscow sending weapons to Pyongyang, saying it would be repercussions for the West supplying Ukraine.
“It would destabilise the Korean peninsula, potentially, depending on the type of weapons, and might violate UN Security Council resolutions that Russia itself has supported,” Miller said.
Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior aide to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, told AFP that North Korea was abetting Russia’s “mass murder of Ukrainians”, and called for greater international isolation of both countries.
– With AFP
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