‘Dangerous behaviour’: Expert warns China will ‘keep targeting Australia’ after warship debacle
Chairman Xi Jinping has just deliberately threatened Australia – and it revealed something truly horrifying about us.
ANALYSIS
Chairman Xi Jinping’s gunboat diplomacy has reached Australia.
“Get used to it,” argues Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) senior analyst Joe Keary.
“Expect China’s military to keep targeting Australia, as well as other US allies and partners that uphold freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea.
“The past fortnight has provided a snapshot of China’s ability to deploy a variety of tactics, which in this case were designed to signal its military reach and test Australia’s military and diplomatic responses.”
The fallout from a military exercise in the Tasman Sea a week ago continues to spread.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Task Group 107 comprises the Type 055 cruiser Zunyi, the Type 054A frigate Hengyang and the Type 903 replenishment ship Weishanhu.
The ships have been observed making their way from the South China Sea, through the Philippine and Indonesian archipelagos, across the Arafura Sea north of Darwin, past Queensland’s Cape York and down through the Coral Sea for the past month.
On Friday, the task group conducted two live-fire tests of their weapons systems in international waters between Australia and New Zealand.
Such practice shoots are not unusual. These are, after all, warships.
It was unusual to conduct it beneath a busy international air corridor. And that overflying aircraft were only warned after the shooting began.
Live ammunition and civilian airliners are a deadly combination.
In 1983, a Soviet Su-15 interceptor shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007. All 269 passengers and crew were killed, including four Australians.
In 1988, the US cruiser USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air Flight 655 after mistaking it for an approach combat jet. All 290 aboard were killed.
In 2014, a Russian anti-aircraft missile system mistook Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 for a Ukrainian military transport. Of the 298 killed, 38 called Australia home.
Now, analysts say last week’s dangerously unprofessional behaviour in the Tasman Sea was not unintentional.
“The live-fire exercises were a display to show that China’s military forces could cut off the air and sea links between Australia and New Zealand at any time, with no warning,” argues foreign policy analyst Professor Anne-Marie Brady of the University of Canterbury.
“China’s aggressive act is a shot across the bow to New Zealand and Australia, but also to the countries of the wider Pacific. It is a demonstration of China’s growing sea power in the Southwest Pacific and meant to normalise the PLA presence there.”
The grey zone expands over Australia
Chinese state-controlled media has detailed the task force’s live-fire activities.
The Global Times states that the cruiser Zunyi and frigate Hengyang “rapidly adjusted positions” to engage a “simulated unknown aerial target”.
“The Zunyi then promptly engaged its close-in weapon system and successfully neutralised the mock target with a single shot of barrage,” it reports.
Exactly when this occurred relative to the overflight of a Virgin Australia airliner is unknown.
At 9.58am, the Virgin pilot notified Australian air traffic control that he had picked up a Chinese transmission on an international guard (warning) channel, stating that live ammunition was being used in his vicinity.
At 10.18am, Emirates Flight UAE3HJ also received a direct warning about the danger. The Chinese controller added that the exercise had been scheduled between 9.30am and 1pm local time.
Some 49 aircraft had to be diverted out of the flight corridor to avoid the Chinese warships.
That pilots only became aware of the live-fire event 28 minutes after it had already started triggered the controversy.
The Chinese cruiser, frigate and supply ship are now crossing the Great Australian Bight into the Indian Ocean. Chinese state media has published a map purporting to show its intended circumnavigation of the island continent.
In its wake, it’s left a roil of political and diplomatic outcry.
Shadow defence minister Andrew Hastie lashed out, accusing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of “very weak leadership”.
“He’s been at pains to explain this behaviour from the Chinese warships away as within international law, which is completely missing the point,” Mr Hastie said.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong retorted: “You’re not actually interested in the detail. If you were interested in how we are working to keep Australians safe, you would have asked for a briefing [sooner] than four days after the incident happened. But you’re only interested in trying to invest in a political attack.”
However, international affairs analysts say that such politicking was part of China’s purpose behind the incident.
It’s called “grey zone” coercion. In essence, it’s plausibly deniable hostility designed to upset and unsettle.
“Most definitions of the grey zone key on the uncertain political and operational space between war and peace; they describe calibrated coercion that does not breach certain escalatory thresholds while achieving certain coercive effects,” says Carnegie Endowment think-tank senior fellow Isaac Kardon.
“China’s varied coercion tactics are non-uniform in different sectors, creating just enough friction and doubt to deny the activities of other states, and to promise sustained higher levels of coercion if targets do not back down.”
Sign of things to come
“China will keep conducting dangerous military manoeuvres against us and other countries in the South China Sea; its actions will continue to differ from its words; and it is likely to send advanced Chinese warships to our region more often and for longer,” predicts ASPI’s Keary.
ASPI’s pursuit of Beijing’s aggressive but ambiguous behaviour was the target of one of 14 grievances issued by China’s Sydney Embassy in 2020. Last year, the Albanese Government announced that public funding cuts would target the foreign policy think-tank.
Now, whether or not to appease or aggravate Chairman Xi is once again a battlefield for Canberra’s partisan politics.
It’s a serious issue.
One with immediate, real-world consequences.
“China is now gaslighting the governments of Australia and New Zealand about the live-fire exercises and presence of an uninvited, hostile naval presence in their near seas,” says Professor Brady.
Meanwhile, the guided-missile frigate HMAS Hobart has completed its 15,000km deployment to Southeast Asia as part of regional security and stability efforts.
It operated alongside warships from France, the US, Japan and the Philippines in defiance of Chinese demands that all non-Chinese warships depart the South China Sea.
The frigate and its two sister ships, Brisbane and Sydney, are Australia’s most potent surface combatants. Its main armament is a 48-cell vertical launch system (VLS) capable of firing a mix of anti-air and anti-surface missiles.
China’s Type 055 cruiser Zunyi carries 112 VLS tubes. The Type 054A frigate Hengyang has 32.
“Australia shouldn’t be shocked to see a Chinese navy task group off our east coast,” argues former Royal Australian Navy warfare officer and naval analyst Jennifer Parker.
“It’s rightly considered an uncommon occurrence, particularly since Australia’s east coast isn’t exactly on the way to anywhere – making it clear this was a deliberate show of capability. But we should expect it to become increasingly common.”
The two warships of China’s Task Group 107 match the combined missile might of Australia’s entire navy. This emphasises how vulnerable Canberra’s position really is.
About 98 per cent of all Australian trade is carried by sea. A similar percentage of our internet data passes through undersea cables.
“But it’s not just about data and trade generally; it’s particularly the critical goods that keep our economy running and ensure our security, from fuel and ammunition to pharmaceuticals and fertiliser,” adds Parker.
“Cut off those supplies, and we cripple our economy and security: no fuel means grounded F-35s and idle trucks nationwide.”
Australia, alone?
“Along with China’s actions, another unexpected development has been worrying to observe: there has been a chilling silence from the White House about China’s live-fire exercises in the Tasman,” adds Professor Brady.
The ANZUS treaty was established after World War II as a mutual defence pact between the US, Australia and New Zealand. But US President Donald Trump has been openly contemptuous of his nation’s international agreements since entering office earlier this month.
“Australia and New Zealand have appeared very isolated in the last few days,” adds Professor Brady.
“Now is the time to reach out to other like-minded small and medium powers who also rely on the rules-based international order for their security, and to invest significantly in defence capabilities.”
In the past, Canberra generally strove to avoid choosing sides between its major economic partner, Beijing, and its closest strategic ally, Washington DC.
It may no longer have much choice.
“Both AUKUS and the Quad demonstrate Australia’s changing role as a regional power in the Indo-Pacific,” argues La Trobe University Professor of International Relations Rebecca Strating.
“These groups offer Australia an opportunity to shape the regional security agenda by joining forces with other powerful states. They also provide a way of encouraging the US to maintain its presence and leadership in the region and to counterbalance China’s rise.”
As the US retreats, Japan, India, South Korea, Indonesia – and Australia – will have to pick up the slack.
“This is a central pillar of the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy that seeks to mobilise ‘like-minded’ states … to form a regional coalition against rival states,” adds Strating.
“This strategy reflects a growing awareness the US can’t provide security in Asia alone.”
Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @jamieseidel.bsky.social
‘No reason’: China not sorry for warship saga
China’s ambassador to Australia says Beijing did not break any rules in its live fire drills in the Tasman Sea, and there is “no reason” for an apology.
Twist in China warships saga
Richard Marles has downplayed concerns over communication around the Chinese warships lurking off Australia’s coast, while conceding one key detail.
‘90 minutes’: Horror China warship details
The more details that emerge about the Chinese warships off the coast of Sydney, the more worrying the situation gets.