Clue that President Vladimir Putin is finally cracking it

As Russia continues to scale back its military activity around Ukraine, a report has shed light on a clue that Vladimir Putin’s mental state could be worsening.

In autocratic Russia, an awful lot depends on just one man. Which is why the world is focused on President Vladimir Putin’s every move, every blink - and every word.

His irrational actions are attracting immense attention.

Words such as “bizarre” and “delusional” are being used to describe his decisions.

Speculation abounds as to why.

Is Putin ill? Is this effect of pain-killing steroids? Or is it simply the self-delusion of a dictator who has surrounded himself with lackeys who dare not contradict his word?

Whatever the case, the future of the world could rest on this one man’s mood.

And, according to an analysis of the signs of stress carried by his voice, Putin’s getting angry.

“His vocal stress levels were over 40 per cent higher than usual” at a televised meeting on March 10, according to a vocal stress analysis by Risk Measurement Technologies.

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According to an analysis of the signs of stress carried by his voice, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s getting angry. Picture: Mikhail Klimentyev / Sputnik / AFP.

The report, published by Nikkei Asia, examined Putin’s public appearances between February 1 and March 18.

Risk Measurement CEO Kanji Okazaki says his stress measuring technique measures how physical stress affects a person’s vocal cords and airways. He says the mucus membrane and muscles of the vocal cords become increasingly compressed.

A relatively routine UN speech from 2020 was used as a baseline comparison point. Some 79 minutes of voice recordings from immediately before the war until mid-March were measured against it.

The assessment attempts to combine these signs with body language and word choice to paint a picture of Putin’s mental state.

Mr Okazaki claims the results show Putin’s “steely exterior” hides increasing internal stress levels.

“Compared with (2020), the voice began to waver greatly before the opening of war this February,” the report says.

A comparison President Vladimir Putin’s stress levels from 2020 to 2022.

The televised Russian Security Council meeting of February 21 saw Putin launch a scathing verbal attack on his spy chief. The trigger was apparently little more than a fumble for words.

“Putin’s voice indicated swings between high and low levels of stress in a short time, a sign of wavering feelings,” Risk Measurement CEO Kanji Okazaki was reported as saying. “We can conjecture that he was in a state of psychological instability.”

Just days later, on February 24, Putin’s armoured tank battalions crossed the border into Ukraine.

Since then, the President’s few public appearances continue to insight into his mindset.

The way he stressed the word “nuclear” on February 24 in a thinly veiled threat to escalate if NATO got involved in Ukraine “showed his anger”, the analysis says.

But, once the war was underway, Putin appeared to settle into his decision.

“The stress level fell on February 24, when the military campaign started. While his facial expressions remained stern throughout all this, the degree of his stress was at a low.”

His words were harsh. But his behaviour was composed “possibly because the outlook for the military campaign was optimistic”.

According to an analysis, Putin stressed the word “nuclear” on February 24 in a thinly veiled threat to escalate if NATO got involved in Ukraine “showed his anger”.

By March 8, Putin hadn’t been delivered the stunning victory he had expected.

His troops had been rushing towards the capital, Kyiv, with their dress uniforms. They had been told to expect the Ukrainian government to dissolve and to be welcomed with open arms.

That didn’t eventuate.

Instead, reports were confusing and unexpected. The state of the war was chaotic.

“It becomes difficult to read his real thoughts because wheeling and dealing began after the invasion began,” the analysts say.

Putin’s facial expressions and words became guarded. Determined.

But his tensions spiked again in a March 10 response to the swift and severe economic sanctions imposed on Moscow. Researchers say his voice at this point revealed stress levels 40 per cent higher than the 2020 UN speech baseline.

He had regained his composure before a March 18 appearance at a stadium filled with 200,000 people. This indicated he was well prepared for the performance, the researchers say. His stress levels registered lower, and gesture analysis showed his mind was “turned inward”.

Now the analysts continue to gather what footage they can find of Putin’s appearances.

“More than a month has passed since the war began, and Putin’s words continue to deserve attention,” Risk Measurement’s Okazaki says.

The validity of voice analysis as an indicator of mental state has not been confirmed. But it is an area of scientific inquiry to help diagnose conditions such as depression and violent intent.

But, given the closed nature of Putin’s small inner-sanctum of trusted advisers, it’s all we have to go on as the war unfolds.

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel