China’s ‘grey zone operation’ on Australia’s doorstep

Australia is suddenly waking up to China’s “grey zone operation” in our region that leaves us “less safe” and facing potential future conflict.

The deal with Solomon Islands has highlighted China’s “grey zone operations” on Australia’s doorstep as Aussies face the prospect of conflict in our region for the first time since World World II.

Australia’s foreign policy will likely need to adjust as China’s ambitions grow, and the war in Ukraine has raised the possibility countries like Russia and China won’t always behave rationally.

“It takes us into a world in which we can’t put our faith in institutions and laws,” University of Melbourne foreign policy expert Professor Michael Wesley told ABC RN’s Patricia Karvelas on Anzac Day.

“We have to prepare for the willingness of large powers to use force outside the bounds of international law and outside of international institutions, and plan for that.”

Until now, China’s ambitions have appeared to focus on the South China Sea and its historical interest in places like Hong Kong and Taiwan, but the Solomon Islands deal could extend the country’s influence to Australia’s own doorstep, with the potential for maritime assets 1700km off the east coast.

China signed the framework agreement on security co-operation with Solomon Islands in defiance of warnings from Australia and the United States.

Labor is saying the deal makes Australia “less safe”.

“The Chinese are setting up a military base on our doorstep, and the (Morrison) government needs to take responsibility for that rather than try and blame everyone else,” Labor’s shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers told ABC’s Insiders on Sunday.

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare insists the agreement with China is not about establishing a military base in his country, although concerns remain.

On Sunday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the establishment of a base would be a “red line” for Australia and the United States.

“We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep,” he told reporters.

So far China has managed to increase its influence in the region and in places like South China and East China, without crossing the threshold into war.

Instead it has engaged in what appears to be a “grey zone operation”, according to Katherine Ziesing, former editor of Australian Defence Magazine, who is now working for a defence manufacturer.

“It’s not a hot war where there’s weapons involved, (and) it’s not a cold war where we’re facing each other down over a table, it’s something different again,” she told RN.

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“So it’s non-kinetic effects and we’re shaping the strategic environment for what we think the next conflict will look like.

“That’s the hard and soft power that China has been building in our region, and that they’ve been doing incredibly well for many years now.”

She believes Australia’s mistake is not seeing China’s actions as an integrated campaign the country needs to fight.

“I think that will be our downfall,” she said.

“We simply just do not have the united front that China has when it comes to marshalling all of our levers that we could possibly pull.”

Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI),

believes Australia underestimated how much its own interests were tied with that of the Pacific region.

If China tries to establish a military base on the Solomons this would present a threat to the east coast of Australia, something Mr Jennings said the country had not seen since World War II.

“That’s something that we can’t be relaxed about,” he told RN. “We have to advance our own interests in a pretty forceful way.”

He said Australia had previously operated on the idea that “we are decent people” and countries in the region should therefore cooperate, but this was not enough.

“We need to be less inclined to just ride on the coat tails of the US – (that) America will come to our aid – and more prepared to actually front up with whatever it costs to look after our own security.”

Solomons PM Manasseh Sogavare (left) and China's ambassador to the Solomon Islands Li Ming during the opening ceremony of a China-funded stadium complex in Honiara. Picture: Chinese Embassy of Solomon Islands

When it comes to soft power, Prof Wesley believes Australia made a “really big blunder” in 2017 when it drastically scaled back Radio Australia in the region.

However, he does not believe Australia should be directly competing with China and instead should be playing to its strengths.

He said Australia had substantial people-to-people relationships in the Pacific Island region and had been a full member of the Pacific Islands Forum since 1971.

It is still the largest contributor of foreign aid in the region and to the Solomon Islands, although China’s aid was growing quickly.

“There is a great deal of affection for Australia and Australians among the vast majority of Pacific Island people,” he said.

“I think we should be investing but investing cleverly and building on the historical strengths that we have.”

Prof Wesley said the greatest lesson from history was that to avoid war you need to prepare for war.

“I think we need to get a lot more adept at our diplomacy,” he said. “I think we need to get much more practised at bringing together the three arms of our statecraft, which are: defence, diplomacy and development assistance.

“We need to realise that foreign policy is not a secondary concern of state, foreign policy has now become the priority of our government, and our governments need to start investing in it with that in mind.”