China is readying military for 2027 war with Taiwan, says US think tank

Xi Jinping has vowed to “resolutely defend China’s territorial sovereignty” as a think tank warns that a possible war with China imminent.

China's Chairman Xi Jinping Picture: Vladimir Astapkovich/SPUTNIK/AFP

Listen to what Xi says. Look at what Xi’s doing. “If Xi says he is readying for war, it would be foolish not to take him at his word.”

This warning by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies was made late last month after China’s supreme leader raised the prospect in all four speeches proclaiming his unprecedented third term in power.

On Wednesday, Chairman Xi Jinping spoke again. During a tour of the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command, he told naval officers that they must “strengthen training under actual combat conditions, deepen the study of war and operational issues, innovate the concepts of combat and the methods of combat and training”.

He added that he expects them to “resolutely defend China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and strive to maintain the overall stability in the neighbouring areas”.

China's Chairman Xi Jinping Picture: Vladimir Astapkovich/SPUTNIK/AFP

Shortly before he spoke, the guided-missile destroyer USS Milius sailed through the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, crossing within 22km of China’s artificial island fortress at mischief Reef.

Beijing claims territorial sovereignty within 22km of the island’s shores. This is despite a Hague Tribunal in 2016 rejecting its claim of historical ownership and the International Convention on the Law of the Sea (of which China is a signatory) dismissing artificial islands as a basis for territorial claims.

Now the Washington DC-based think tank Atlantic Council has added its voice to warnings of a possible conflict.

“Xi Jinping has asked his military to have options ready by 2027 for Taiwan,” says former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michèle Flournoy.

Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper puts that into a political perspective: “I know that feels like years away. But think about it this way: It’s only two budget cycles away.”

The USS Milius sailed through the Spratly Islands. Picture: U.S. Navy/Handout via Reuters

Clear and present danger

“Look at the military exercises and also their rhetoric. They seem to be trying to get ready to launch a war against Taiwan,” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu warned Tuesday.

“No matter whether it is 2025 or 2027 or even beyond, Taiwan simply needs to get ready”.

Chairman Xi’s rhetoric appears to be making it a fait accompli.

“At the annual meeting of China’s parliament and its top political advisory body in March, Xi wove the theme of war readiness through four separate speeches, in one instance telling his generals to dare to fight,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies spokesmen John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger point out in Foreign Policy.

And the preparations are becoming increasingly explicit, they say.

“It is necessary to conscientiously implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress, the thought on strengthening the armed forces in the new era, the military strategic policy in the new era, deepen training and combat-readiness, accelerate the transformation and construction, comprehensively raise the level of modernization of the armed forces, and resolutely fulfil all tasks entrusted by the Party and the people,” Xi said Wednesday.

In the past few months alone, China has enshrined military preparedness standards in law. New air-raid shelters are being built in cities facing Taiwan. And a host of new recruiting offices have been opened nationwide.

Xi and other high-ranking officials in his Politburo have also begun calling for urgent efforts to improve China’s self-sufficiency in food and critical materials. “In case we’re short of either, the international market will not protect us,” Xi states.

And his Communist Party theologians are gloating.

Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. Picture: Sam Yeh / AFP

Xi Thought unchained

On March 1, a formal political journal published an essay entitled “Under the Guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Army, We Will Advance Victoriously.”

It reads: “Our army is famous for being good at fighting and having a strong fighting spirit. With millet and rifles, it defeated the Kuomintang army equipped with American equipment. It defeated the world’s number one enemy armed to the teeth on the Korean battlefield, and performed mighty and majestic battle dramas that shocked the world and caused ghosts and gods to weep.”

Its authorship is especially significant.

“The essay appeared under the name Jun Zheng a homonym for “military government” that possibly refers to China’s top military body, the Central Military Commission,” write Pomfret and Pottinger.

Chairman Xi unveiled the hand-picked membership of his new Central Military Commission in October. He is the body’s supreme leader.

“We must persist in thinking and handling military issues from a political perspective, carry out military struggles with firmness and flexibility and improve our ability to respond to complex situations in a timely and proper manner,” Xi stated earlier this week.

And the increased frequency of such demands is raising eyebrows.

“Something has changed in Beijing that policymakers and business leaders worldwide cannot afford to ignore,” Pomfret and Pottinger write.

“(Xi) is clearly willing to use force to take the island. What remains unclear is whether he thinks he can do so without risking uncontrolled escalation with the United States.”

Chairman Xi is increasingly confident his military can fight and win. Picture: Ludovic Marin/AFP

Deterrence drive

The Atlantic Council, releasing an interim report on defence innovation this week, says Chairman Xi is increasingly confident his military can fight and win.

That confidence, it says, must be eroded.

“As the 2022 National Security Strategy states, we are living through a “decisive decade,” the assessment reads.

“Congress and the Department of Defense must seize this opportunity to enact near-term changes that will help get our service members the capabilities they need to defend our country and its interests.”

It recommends urgent reform to how US Government and agencies approach defence procurement, citing excessive project delays, cost blowouts and failure rates.

“Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and China’s revanchism not only spur urgent geopolitical considerations, but also cast into sharp relief the US industrial base’s ability to produce and field innovative technologies at scale.”

China, which has doubled its military spending over the past decade, can now build more warships at just one of its new facilities than all seven US shipyards combined.

US Navy Secretary Carlos del Toro admitted this to Capitol Hill last month.

“By 2028, we will have approximately 291 ships or so,” he said.

“I can’t predict exactly what the Chinese will have, but estimates are upward of 440 or so.”

And US Senator Marco Rubio, who serves on the Foreign Relations and Appropriations committees, used the figures to take an oblique shot at the prospect of building nuclear-powered submarines for Australia. “That is not especially surprising given that some in our government seem content to export all domestic manufacturing,” he writes.

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer | @JamieSeidel