Former Aussie spy Warren Reed says IS could strike this Christmas

IT’S the time of year when we let our guards down. Cities slow down, but airports speed up. And it’s here that IS may be planning to remind us of its power.

IT’S that time of year when we let our guards down, when we relax and look forward to spending time with our loved ones over the festive break.

Cities slow down, but airports become hives of activity as we head around the country to make the most of our time off.

And it’s precisely this time of year that Islamic State could choose to remind the world of its power to strike fear into the hearts of the Western world.

That is the view of a former Australian spy who says the terrorist organisation may select Christmas time for it’s next big attack. And he says it won’t likely target a metropolis such as Rome or New York; the terror group has its sights on a second-tier city — and Australia is not immune.

As the West ramps up its campaign against Islamic State, Warren Reed has warned that the military offensive could spur the terrorist group to strike at our busiest time of year.

He explained while the intense bombing of key targets in Syria hasn’t obliterated the militant group, it has weakened their defences and depleted their resources.

Mr Reed, a senior security analyst who was trained by British spy agency MI6 and served 10 years as a spook with the Australian Secret Intelligence Service in the Middle East and Asia, told news.com.au while IS might be suffering as a result of the Russian and British air strikes, it would still be eager to show its supporters it can “still cut the ice overseas”.

“I think one thing we can expect with reasonable certainty is that IS’s resources in the territory they control is being depleted,” he explained. “Things aren’t necessarily trending well for Islamic State in that region but they are not going to be finished off any time soon.

“In order to reassert their authority in the territory they control (in Syria and Iraq), they’re going to have to present to the populous there … some sense of authority and ongoingness.

“Their forces have been depleted and I think in reaction to that they will try to show how they can still cut the ice overseas.

“We have this massive movement of people particularly in the northern hemisphere about to start with Christmas and New Year. So airports, resorts and all sorts of things are milling with people buzzing around with luggage. It’s a horrible time to be going into.

“It’s a horrible period for travellers but also intelligence and security agencies. It’s actually a nightmare. No agency has enough people to cover all the likely danger points over the Christmas-new year holiday. That’s a daunting prospect, it’s horrible.

“I think this is why [US President Barack] Obama has been upfront a bit more because that is coming on.”

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported at least 11 civilians, including four children, were killed in strikes on the town of Hamouria on December 9. Picture: AFP/Sameer al-Doumy

What Mr Reed meant by upfront was the recent revelation by US President Barack Obama that he had sent a group of elite soldiers, called the Joint Special Operations Command, into Syria and Iraq to take out the militant group’s leaders.

This secretive group were responsible for claiming the scalps of Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the mastermind behind many al-Qaeda bombings.

In a warning to the deadly cult, Mr Obama said: “ISIL leaders cannot hide and our next message to them is simple: You are next.”

Mr Obama’s warning comes as the extremist group issued its latest threat against the West.

Following the Paris attacks, Islamic State said it was planning to inflict more terror on Europe by targeting a major city.

Just this week, Sweden was sent into lockdown after jihadis sent letters to individuals ordering them to convert to Islam within three days or face being decapitated,The Expressreported.

According to the British newspaper, authorities in Sweden confirmed they were investigating the threats after they were posted on Facebook.

Whether the threat made against Swedish citizens can be directly linked to Islamic State, Mr Reed said he thought the terrorist organisation would target an unsuspecting smaller city rather than a large one to maximise the shock factor.

Islamic State militants march through the streets of Raqqa, Syria. Picture: AP/Militant website

“Rather than go for say a Berlin, Madrid or any of the major capital cities they may go for smaller city like Prague,” he told news.com.au. “The only thing going in Europe’s favour at the moment is that we are heading into the depths of winter. The canals are frozen, traffic slows down but airports will still be busy.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if [an attack] is outside. Their prize would be to launch something big, a lot like in California the other day, or another middle-range American city.

“It’s a horrible prospect, it’s a horrible thing to talk about. I think they will try particularly because of what they are suffering in the Middle Eastern area.

“I think they will try some spectacular thing but not necessarily in a first-ranked city. It will probably be second or third tier, which links back not so much to the lone wolf [type of attacks]. “There can be a ‘lone’ lone wolf or two or three people who come together as a lone wolf mini group. They are imminently willing to help at any time and they are right across the world, including here in Australia.

“Our intelligence services and police have done a really good job so far; some things get through but they are doing really very well. And we are lucky that we are an island continent and don’t have a massive population. But for the northern hemisphere in particular we are going into a high danger period.”

Terrorism expert Levi West, of Charles Sturt University, told news.com.au it was really difficult to predict where IS would strike next, given the organisation’s propensity to claim attacks that were carried out in its name.

“I think in the broadest of sense is that they will continue to seek opportunities wherever they can find them,” he said. “So terrorist organisations by their nature are limited in what they can do and what they can achieve in the environment that they are operating.

“Narrowing it down to when a person is going to take a gun and shoot up a bunch of people is so close to impossible it’s not even worth trying.

“The nature of those low-tech one person two person attacks is that they are almost impossible to predict.

“If you look at what happened in San Bernardino there was nothing there. There were a few bits and pieces that in retrospect look like they might have been something.

“OK, she had become more conservative, he had gone to Saudi [Arabia].

“But it is only after they had done something that it looks suspicious before they had done anything … thousands of people go to Saudi and go to Pakistan and become more conservative in their practice of Islam. It’s an entirely benign thing to do until you commit a terrorist attack and everyone goes, ‘Oh well, we should have looked at that’.”

Dr West said if the West were to deploy a major military offensive into Syria and Iraq, he believed it would “have a fairly significant impact on Islamic State’s decision making processes” and where they would operate.

“So that means in Syria and Iraq they are not on the back foot but they are being pushed at pretty hard, they probably wouldn’t be looking to expand dramatically in Syria or Iraq at the moment,” he said. “We do know there’s a priority being placed on Libya and an increased amount of focus being placed on Afghanistan by IS.

“So I think an ongoing strategy of opportunistic attacks in the West coupled with an increase amount of attention being placed on Libya as a new location of opportunity for Islamic State to establish a foothold.”