Grading the Apple Watch after the first six months: hit or miss?

APPLE set out to change the face of wearable technology with the launch of the Apple Watch. Now six months later is it a hit or a miss?

APLLE set out to change the face of wearable technology with the April launch of the Apple Watch.

Six months later, analysts are giving the launch a pass grade but say its best is yet to come.

The challenge rating the success of Apple’s first wearable device is disagreement on how high to set the bar.

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Before launch, predictions on Watch sales ranged from eight million to 40 million units.

With such an extreme range, you could say the Watch is either far exceeding expectations or falling dismally below them.

Six months on ... The success of Apple’s Watch is not clear. Pictures: Justin Lloyd

Given Apple has refused to release sales figures, the best assessment of the Apple Watch comes from analysis.

What is clear is the Apple Watch is the most successful smartwatch to date and, although it is late to the market, again Apple is the one to chase.

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IDC estimates Apple shipped 3.6 million Watches in the second quarter of the year — just a fraction short of winning Fitbit’s crown as the biggest seller of wearable devices.

About two of every smart wearable device — smartwatches and activity trackers — shipped in the quarter was an Apple Watch.

Strategy Analytics estimates Apple sold four million Apple Watches in the first quarter of the year.

To put that into perspective, the firm says it took Apple just 67 days to slash Samsung’s smartwatch market share from 73.6 per cent to 7.5 per cent, and in 90 days Apple sold more smartwatches than all other players combined last year.

Ramon Llamas, research manager for IDC’s wearables team, describes Apple as the stick against which other wearable products will be measured.

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“I’m sure Apple would grade the first six months a success,” Llamas says.

“As for myself, I think the numbers will be strong and keep Apple among the market leaders in wearable technology. However, my expectations are low. Wait for the second and third generation Watches to come out, because that’s when we’ll see the mass market take to them in larger volumes.”

Analysts say the Apple Watch’s momentum will continue past its first six months as Apple delivers the Watch in new markets and adds new features.

“I actually think Apple might sell more Watches in the second six months than the first, for a couple of reasons,” Dawson says.

“Firstly, I think word of mouth will start to get stronger as more people have them and tell their friends and family about them, so there’s a virtuous circle there that will start working for the Watch.

“Secondly, Christmas and other gift-giving holidays over the next few months will see a lot of Apple Watches given as presents to people who couldn’t justify buying them for themselves.

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“Thirdly, WatchOS 2 should make for more compelling apps on the Watch, which should help the appeal. And lastly, Apple is now past its early supply constraints and has even released new models and new bands, all of which should help broaden the appeal.”

As Apple seeks to cement the Watch as a mass consumer product, Dawson and Llamas agree Apple may be working on other wearable devices as the market matures.

“Any wearable other than a Watch will require Apple to rethink its usual strategy because other things you wear tend not to have screens,” Dawson says.

“That presents some unique challenges with regard to how you’d interact with it and get value out of it.”