Cooler than average Christmas looms for southern states as rain to fall over holidays

Experts have offered a prediction of the likely Christmas Day weather conditions across the country, and it’s good news for some.

Most of the country is likely to experience cooler than normal temperatures later this month as Australians cross their fingers in hope of perfect beach or barbecue weather on Christmas Day.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook for the rest of December warns of below-average temperatures for the southern states over the period, with above-average rainfall likely along the entire east coast of Australia.

The news is far better for Western Australia and Northern Territory residents, with Perth to enjoy very close to average temperatures in late December and likely to be very dry, along with the entire Top End.

Bureau forecaster Ilana Cherny said the long-range forecasts were not a cause for misery among the east coast population, as there was still the possibility of outlying warm weather around Christmas Day.

Sydney enjoyed beautiful clear skies and a pleasant temperature of 29C on Wednesday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

Experts have offered a prediction of the likely Christmas Day weather conditions across the country, and it’s good news for some. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology

NSW/ACT

Rainfall in eastern NSW will likely be at above-average levels over Christmas, while central and eastern parts of the state are most at risk of having cooler than normal temperatures.

Parts of northeast NSW could experience low minimum temperatures and surprisingly cool nights.

Clear skies over Sydney Harbour early Wednesday morning. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

Northern Territory

Alice Springs and Darwin are two of the very few Australian cities likely to experience stinking hot weather on Christmas Day.

Darwin has a greater than 80 per cent chance of above-average maximum temperatures between December and February.

One caveat though is that the bureau’s long-range forecasts for central and Northern Australia are not as accurate as other areas at this time of year, with its accuracy ranking “moderate to low” over this period in the NT.

“For the Top End and the Kimberley, this fortnight is forecast to be in the driest 20 per cent of fortnights at this time of year (for 40 years),” the forecast read.

Queensland

Like NSW, eastern Queensland is very likely to experience above median rainfall over summer that could impact Christmas Day celebrations.

Cairns could also be in for a wet Christmas, with a more than 80 per cent chance of above-average rain.

“Northern Australia is more likely to see warmer than average daytime temperatures,” Ms Cherny said.

“Central and northern Queensland will have a drier second half of December, and elsewhere it will be drier than average in western Queensland for the whole month.”

Coastal residents will again be eager to pack out beaches on Christmas Day after conditions were perfect in NSW last year. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gaye Gerard

South Australia

Cooler than average daytime temperatures were on the cards in southern parts of the state, including Adelaide, Ms Cherny said.

“But despite expecting that cooler outlook for the southern capital cities, there is the possibility of having hot days,” she said.

Promising news for South Australians, Victorians and Tasmanians is the end of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which had combined with La Nina to produce significant rain events in the last few months.

Tasmania

The Apple Isle is another area where the bureau’s long-range forecasting is not as accurate over the summer months, but Tasmanians will be excited by projected warmer than average daytime temperatures from December through to February.

However, in the state’s northeast, particularly near St Helens, temperatures are not expected to rise in time for Christmas.

Victoria

Victorians have reason to be cautiously optimistic about their Christmas weather, with rainfall only expected to be slightly above average for the time of year, a significant improvement following massive downpours in October and November.

“We’re looking at likely below-average temperatures for Melbourne and the rest of Victoria for that second half of December,” Ms Cherny said.

Western Australia

The west will enjoy clearer conditions than most of the rest of the country over the festive season, with a “drier than average” second half of December, Ms Cherny said.

The north of the state will be bone dry, with the Kimberley set for close to record low rainfall over the next two weeks.

Mostly unaffected by La Nina and the now-defunct negative IOD, Western Australia will see close to average temperatures, and it may be slightly cooler than usual in Perth.