Forget stadiums. This is what will decide NSW election

The demolition of stadiums has been a big campaign issue in the NSW election, but it’s not the one that will determine the outcome.

The contentious issue of sports stadiums has been a big campaign issue in the NSW election, but it’s not the one that could determine the outcome.

Instead, the real critical weak point for the Liberal-National Coalition is much further west, experts and pundits say.

Labor leader Michael Daley has seized on discontent in the community over the $1.5 billion stadiums project. It’s his main, arguably his single, campaign pitch.

Michael Daley has gone hard in criticising the demolition of Allianz Stadium in Sydney. Picture: AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts

“Fascinating as such matters may be to Sydneysiders, they are hardly issues of great importance to the inhabitants of Dubbo or Grafton,” Gregory Melleuish from the University of Wollongong said.

In those towns, and countless others like them across the state’s far west, the real election issue is water. Towns are running out of it, farmers don’t have enough and critics argue the management of it, particularly in the Murray Darling, has been flawed.

The response from the National Party has been haphazard and it’s costing them voter support, Professor Melleuish said.

“There appears to be a growing discontent in the bush, one that can be seen in by-elections over the past few years.”

The dry river and lake bed of Lake Menindee. Mismanagement of the lakes meant flood waters from 2017 when the lakes were at 94 per cent capacity were released. Picture: Toby Zerna

Those by-election results Professor Melleuish is referencing in Orange, Murray, Cootamundra and Wagga have the National Party nervous about a wider backlash, Prof Melleuish said.

“The Nationals lost Orange and experienced substantial swings against them in Cootamundra and Murray, while the Liberals lost Wagga to an independent. In 2019, the Nationals will be contesting Wagga on behalf of the Coalition,” he said.

A recent Newspoll that showed Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s government struggling in a number of keys also has it neck-and-neck with Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

If the general swing seen in the Newspoll was reflected across the state, the Nationals could lose four seats — Upper Hunter, Lismore, Tweed and Monaro.

“It’s been reported that in Barwon, in the state’s far west, polls show the primary vote for the National Party has dropped from 49 per cent in 2015 to 35 per cent,” Prof Melleuish said.

“There are a number of reasons for this. In the case of Barwon, there is the impact of the drought and water issues, including the mass death of fish in the Darling River.

“The provision of health services is a perennial issue in rural NSW — what is just down the road in Sydney can often be a long drive if one lives in a small country town.”

Related story: ‘Dodgy’ policies to blame for Murray Darling’s downfall

Dead perch fish lay scattered on the banks of the Darling River near Menindee after a blue green algal bloom robbed the water of oxygen and killed thousands of fish. Picture: Toby Zerna

In particular, the Nationals sticking firm to their line that the Darling River mass fish kill was all about drought — not the management of water — has left people fuming.

Graeme McCrabb, who lives in Menindee where recent fish kills took place, said the river system had been “drained pretty rapidly” in 2018 by the Murray Darling Basin Authority.

“We’ve had three massive fish kills in the last six weeks,” Mr McCrabb said. “The fish kills were 100 per cent preventable, had the water been controlled better by the basin authority.

“You’re looking at a $14 billion (water management) plan and we’re standing in front of a $2000 aerator being run by a generator to keep 20-odd cod alive and a few hundred perch. It seems like a massive failure.”

It’s a consistent theme in a number of normally safe Nationals electorates.

Related story: $8.5 billion spent on saving the Murray-Darling Basin appears to have had no effect, report finds

Farmers and community members feel angry and disappointed with the mismanagement of the Murray Darling Basin. Picture: Getty Images

When it’s all said and done, Gregory Melleuish from the University of Wollongong believes the outcome of the election will highlight a distinct divide between the city and the bush.

“If country voters are to “make it marginal”, then it will not be by supporting Labor because it goes against the grain. They also value independence. This means they look to independents and parties such as Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.”

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party looks on track to pick up Barwon, while they are increasingly confident of their chances in Murray.

Mr Daley knows Labor is unlikely to romp it home in the bush but told The New Daily that he’s prepared to form minority government with crossbench support.

That would occur through a collapse of the National Party vote in the bush. Labor and the SFF Party have made a preference deal that hints at an alliance should a minority government situation play out.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Deputy Premier John Barilaro, the leader of the Nationals, on the campaign trail in Lismore. Picture: Nathan Edwards.

Andy Marks, a political scientist from Western Sydney University, told The Conversation that a substantially weakened National Party is likely.

“We’ve got One Nation returning to the fold,” Dr Marks said.

“Mark Latham, their number one ticket holder in the upper house, will get in. But potentially they’ll get two seats in the upper house. You’ll have an emboldened Shooters and Fishers Party.

“So you really have a really broad field and it’s going to mean negotiating the passage of bills will be pretty difficult.”

Opposition leader Michael Daley has made the stadiums plan a major campaign issue. Picture: Monique Harmer

How worried is the traditional party of the bush about its polling?

According to reports, John Barilaro, the leader of the Nationals in NSW and the Deputy Premier, has dropped party branding from his election signs.

On whether she was concerned about the National Party’s poor polling in the regions, Ms Berejiklian said she was confident people in the bush could see her government’s investments.

“The majority of the hospitals we’ve upgraded or rebuilt have been in the regions,” she said.

“The roads — the Pacific Highway, the Princes Highway, the Mule Highway, thousands of kilometres of roads we’ve built in regional New South Wales.

“When I talk about cranes in the sky, I’m not just talking about Sydney. I get a buzz when I go to places like Dubbo or Tweed or Ballina or Goulburn and see activity.

“There’s a lot of action happening in the regions. It’s not by accident that we have the lowest unemployment the regions have seen for a long time.”

Ms Berejiklian said the drought had impacted a number of communities — regional towns with dwindling water supplies and farmers.

“Obviously the drought is bearing heavily on families and communities. But I am buoyed by the contribution our government is making in allowing those communities to thrive, and also supporting them where they need it most, especially during the drought.”

NSW goes to the polls tomorrow.