World Meteorological Organisation says 2015 is hottest year on record, 2016 could be hotter

IT’S so hot right now. But hang on to your hats, folks — while this year looks set to be the hottest year ever, 2016 could be even worse.

A cattle pad leading to a watering point winds past a dead tree on a plain north-west of Hughende

THIS year looks set to be the hottest year ever and 2016 could be even hotter, the UN weather agency says.

It’s been so warm around the world already this year that the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) didn’t even wait for the end of December to make their overnight announcement.

It said the current super-strong El Niño and human-induced global warming were to blame for global average surface temperatures in 2015 looking likely to reach the “symbolic and significant milestone” of 1C above pre-industrial era temperatures.

Their announcement comes as hot and dry conditions and strong winds today continue to fan deadly bushfires in South Australia, in which at least two people have died, five are critically injured and three people are missing. Four people were killed in devastating bushfires in Western Australia last week.

It also comes as Sydney sweats through a scorching day with the mercury set to peak at 38C by midafternoon, and the Queensland government confirmed more than 86 per cent of its state was officially in drought.

World Meteorological Organisation secretary-general Michel Jarraud shows a chart revealing anomalies in global surface temperatures at the European headquarters of the United Nations, in Geneva, Switzerland. Picture: Martial Trezzini/Keystone via AP

The WMO’s early bird estimate, which is based on data from January to October, showed that the global average surface temperature for 2015 was around 0.73C above the 1961-1990 average of 14C, and about 1C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period.

“The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history as for a number of reasons,” the WMO’s secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, told a press conference in Geneva.

“2015 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with ocean surface temperatures at the highest level since measurements began. It is probable that the 1C threshold will be crossed.

“This is all bad news for the planet.”

The years between 2011 and 2015 have also been the hottest five year period on record, with temperatures about 0.57C above the 1961-1990 reference period, the WMO said.

Global ocean temperatures were unprecedented during that time and several land areas — including Australia, the United States, Europe, South America and Russia — smashed previous temperature records.

Last month Victoria experienced the hottest October on record.

The WMO said the world’s ten warmest years have all occurred since 1998, with eight of them being since 2005.

Parts of Australia’s southeast are on bushfire alert this week with high winds and scorching temperatures predicted. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology

And it warns next year could be even hotter, with levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere having risen to a new record every year for the past 30 years.

The El Nino phenomenon is also likely to continue into 2016.

“The year whose annual mean temperature is likely to be most strongly influenced by the current El Niño is 2016 rather than 2015,” the WMO said.

Climate experts told news.com.au this month that this year’s devastating El Niño — which rivals a small handful of other bad El Ninos on record — was likely to peak in December.

The weather pattern has been attributed to savage bushfires and worsening drought conditions in many parts of Australia.

Bureau of Meteorology supervisor of Climate Prediction Services Dr Andrew Watkins said the behaviour of previous El Niño events suggested the current El Niño would start to move out by about March.

He said it was unlikely a second El Niño would follow it, and next year was more likely to bring either neutral weather conditions or a La Nina event, which is generally characterised by above-average rainfall.

“The most likely situation is that we’ll go into neutral conditions, back into a more normal weather pattern,” he told news.com.au.

Devastating bushfires are blazing through parts of South Australia this week. Picture: Calum Robertson

“About 60 per cent of the time we move into neutral patterns. But historically, around 40 per cent of the time, we have overshot the mark as we’ve cooled down from El Niño and gone into a La Niña event.

“Double El Niños are fairly rare: we’ve only had two in the past 120 years and it would be unusual to go into El Niño (again).”

But Dr Jaci Brown, Senior Research Scientist at the CSIRO, told news.com.au predicting major weather patterns such as El Niño and La Nina was difficult because global warming presented such an unknown quantity.

“We can’t necessarily look to the past and see that as a guarantee of how the future’s going to look because we just don’t know what the interactions between climate change and El Niño and La Niña is,” she said. “We’re going blind a little bit.”

World leaders with gather in Paris next week to discuss ways to curb greenhouse gas emissions and prevent world temperatures rising beyond 2C above pre-industrial levels.

The 2C threshold is regarded by many climate scientists as the biggest rise in temperature Earth can handle before it starts to experience catastrophic effects of climate change.