Top scientists urge government to get one thing ‘right’ in climate policy

Two of the country’s leading climate experts have warned of a concerning feature of the Labor government’s proposed climate policy.

Two of Australia’s leading climate researchers have warned of the critical importance of the safeguard mechanism Bill to the nation’s chances of avoiding climate disaster.

Federal politicians are embroiled in a heated debate over the Bill, which has the potential to alter the path of Australia’s still rising carbon emissions.

If passed, the Bill would require the nation’s 215 largest polluters to reduce their emissions by 4.9 per cent each year to 2030.

“It is absolutely critical that the new safeguard mechanism under the emissions reduction fund is effective,” former federal climate commissioner Lesley Hughes said.

Large bushfires swept across southwest Queensland in February. Picture: QFES

“There’s a great deal of concern currently about the big emitters being able to basically buy their way out of their responsibilities by purchasing offsets.”

Offset programs allow big companies to participate in programs like tree planting as a sort of trade-off for not reducing their emissions.

Professor Hughes says the problem with this is there is nothing that can reverse the effects of rising carbon emissions with the same speed that reeling back fossil fuel industries can.

“What we’re doing with fossil fuels is we’re taking carbon that’s locked up safely in the Earth’s crust and putting it into the atmosphere,” she said.

Offset programs are not an alternative to reducing fossil fuel emissions. Picture: QFES

Tree planting, as one example, is well known at failing its emissions reduction function due to the increasing rate of bushfires that decimate forests and tree death due to drought or lack of long-term management.

“It’s essential that the government this week gets the safeguarding mechanism right,” Climate Council director of research Simon Bradshaw said.

“It is very clear from the science that we can’t offset our way out of this problem.

“The science repeatedly points towards moving beyond coal, oil and gas. That is the main game for these crucial years ahead.”

The debate is ongoing this week in parliament where Greens leader Adam Bandt’s demands for a guarantee of no new fossil fuel projects has caused a standoff with the federal Labor government.

Torrential rain overwhelmed Wyangala Dam in NSW last year. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

It comes as the work of almost 300 scientists across 67 countries will be released at midnight (AEST) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“This is our final warning,” Dr Bradshaw said.

“By the time the next assessment is complete, we’ll either have turned the ship around or if we haven’t acted very quickly, we will be in very serious trouble.”

At this stage, there will be no other IPCC report released before 2030 – the same year that climate scientists warn will be a turning point in climate change’s progress.

This means it could be the last chance to warn the public before it is impossible to avoid exceeding the 1.5C global warming point of no return.

“The message is unequivocal – emissions need to plummet through the 2020s,” Dr Bradshaw said.

“That means we need to rapidly accelerate efforts to move beyond coal, oil and gas and double down on renewable energy.

Federal politicians will finalise negotiations on the Safeguard Mechanism Bill this week. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

“We need to be very careful of those advocating for false solutions. There’s really no substitute for getting out of fossil fuels, getting our emissions plummeting.”

This is particularly pressing in Australia where emissions went up by 0.1% in the year up to September 2022.

The report is a summary of six comprehensive reports compiled by the world’s top climate scientists and has been approved by the almost 200 member states of the United Nations.

The first three sections of the latest IPCC report will cover the evidence, impacts and how to adapt to the climate crisis.

They were first published in August 2021, February 2022 and April 2022.

It will also include three shorter reports published in 2018 on the impact of global heating by more than 1.5C.