Australia set to see a dramatic increase in the number of 35-degree days

Australia’s long hot summer could become a nightmare for some with extreme temperatures forecast to increase dramatically.

Australians love their hot summer days but some areas will be living with an extra month’s worth of 35-degree days once climate change kicks in.

Research provided to news.com.au exclusively from the Monash Climate Change Communication Research Hub, allows Australians to see how conditions could change in almost every local government area (LGA) across the country by 2041-2060, compared to average simulated temperatures in 1986-2005.

It shows the number of extreme heat days — when temperatures exceed 35C — will increase by a staggering 28 days in the Queensland LGA of Aurukun, in the state’s far north.

On average, locals will be sweltering through 44 days of extreme heat by around 2050, according to the data.

The worst impacted areas in other states are West Daly and Litchfield in Northern Territory (23 extra days), Narrabri in New South Wales (16 extra days), Wyndham-East Kimberley in Western Australia (15 extra days), Anangu Pitjantjatjara in South Australia (13 extra days), Swan Hill in Victoria (nine extra days) and Australian Capital Territory (three extra days). Tasmania is the least impacted with no 35-degree days.

Australia’s capital cities are also in line for some significant increases.

Data for a medium emissions scenario — which sees no climate action taken until after 2050 so that the world waits until 2100 to reach net zero — shows the worst impacted capital city would be Greater Darwin, which would get an average 20 extra 35C days.

This would see it swelter through 41 days of extreme heat every summer.

The next most affected would be Greater Perth, which is expected to get an extra 10 days (for a total of 23 days).

Adelaide would get an extra six days (for a total of 17 days), Sydney and Brisbane are both forecast to get an extra four days (for a total of nine days) and Melbourne for three extra days (for a total of seven days) over 35C. Hobart is not expected to get any extra 35C days in the next 30 to 40 years.

Perth is expected to experience an extra 20 days of 35-degree temperatures in the next 30 to 40 years.

Monash University climate researcher and data scientist James Goldie, who compiled the data, said he hoped it helped people to understand the impacts of climate change, and the urgency that’s needed to address it.

“There’s a real risk to our lifestyles and a lot of things we hold dear, like summer sports, or our health,” he said.

“It’s not something that’s far off, it’s here and it will define the next few decades.”

By around 2050, some areas will be living with extreme temperatures for more than two months every year.

Australians who will suffer the most are those in Western Australia’s East Pilbara LGA, where the number of 35-degree days will increase to 88 days.

The worst impacted areas in other states are Queensland’s McKinlay (84 days), Northern Territory’s Barkly (82 days), Queensland’s Cloncurry (82 days), NSW’s Bourke (65 days), South Australia’s Anangu Pitjantjatjara (62 days) and Victoria’s Mildura (31 days). The ACT is forecast to experience five days of extreme heat while no areas in Tasmania are expected to reach 35C.

Dangers of extreme heat

The Monash data is based on climate simulations from the NSW and ACT Regional Climate Modelling project, also known as NARCliM1.5, led by the NSW Government. It includes forecasts for a medium emisions scenario called RCP4.5, a measure developed by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to understand how our future would look if a certain volume of greenhouse gases was emitted.

If the world takes a higher emissions pathway (RCP8.5) with no action to reduce emissions, then this would see many areas hit with an extra month’s worth of 30-degree days by around 2050 including Douglas (32 days), Gladstone (31 days), Fraser Coast (29 days), Logan (29 days) and Brisbane (28 days).

There has been an increasing awareness of the dangers of extreme heat, with around 2 per cent of deaths in Australia attributed to heat-related illnesses.

An international study published in the Nature Climate Change journal this year found about 37 per cent of these deaths could be attributed to climate change. This equated to about 3000 deaths in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney.

Unions have become increasingly concerned by the dangers of extreme heat, with the CFMEU advising its members to leave work sites when temperatures reach 35 degrees.

Rising temperatures also have implications for summer sports.

Summer fixtures like the Big Bash League may be impacted by increasing temperatures. Picture: Brendon Thorne/Getty Images

A Climate Council report suggested heatwaves in Sydney and Melbourne could reach highs of 50C by 2040, potentially disrupting sporting events including the Big Bash League (BBL) cricket, AFLW games, the Tour Down Under cycling race, the Australian Open tennis, A- and W-League football and community sports.

“If global emissions continue to increase, Australian sports will have to make significant changes, such as playing summer games in the evening or switching schedules to spring and autumn,” Climate Council head of research and lead author Dr Martin Rice said.

Former professional netball player Amy Steel was forced to retire in 2016 after suffering heat stroke while playing during a national pre-season tournament.

“That incident left me with lifelong health issues, including chronic inflammation and fatigue,” she said.

“If this could happen to me – an elite athlete – then what are the risks for community sporting clubs, as climate change makes heatwaves longer, hotter and more frequent?”