Your last-say guide to a bumper Emirates Stakes Day
IT'S the final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival and Ray Thomas has all you need to know ahead of a tough day of racing at Flemington and Randwick.
Weather: Cool and cloudy with scattered showers and a forecast top temperature of 17c.
Track: Dead (4)
Rail: 3m out
ROYAL RANDWICK
Weather: Partly cloudy with isolated showers and a forecast top temperature of 27c.
Track: Good (3)
Rail: 8m out
BE WARY: There's been plenty of traffic over the Flemington course since Derby Day and it was very noticeable jockeys were steering well away from the inside on Oaks Day. Some rain in Melbourne yesterday and overnight but it wasn't enough to overly dampen the track. Expect riders to get away from the inside from the 600m. At Royal Randwick, the fields are small with 11 runners or less in the first six races. Tempo rather than track bias is the key at Randwick.
FLEMINGTON
THE BEST BET: Sysmo (race 2) was very impressive in the Seymour Cup, sprinting brilliantly from the turn to win running away. He was only second-up at Seymour so should improve further. His record at 1600m is excellent with three wins and a third from four attempts. Lightly-raced import building up a consistent record. He has never won successive races but there were very good signs last start that he has returned better than ever this campaign. This isn't a strong field and his main danger is Seymour Cup runner-up Proverb. The spacious Flemington track suits Sysmo and the "give" in the surface after overnight rain is ideal. Sysmo should win again.
THE NEXT BEST: Queenstown (race 5) put together two solid efforts in Sydney without winning but was dynamic at the Moonee Valley night meeting on Cox Plate eve, romping home from Bia Diamond after starting from a wide barrier. She's a 2000m winner at Randwick back in May and seems to excels over this distance. Drawn the extreme outside barrier again but has the early speed to get across and possibly even take up the running. If she can get a breather mid-race then Queenstown will take plenty of catching. Bookies will risk her because of the barrier but her form is impeccable.
VALUE BET: Suavito (race 4) won like a potential topliner at Caulfield and the form from that race has held up. Lightly raced but very promising with two wins and two placings from just four starts. She is going up a few notches here but looks a real talent. Strong to the line last start and even better suited at Flemington. She gets 4.5kg off topweight and favourite Barbed and is capable of an upset.
THE WHISPER: Disciple (race 9) ran on fairly but never threatened when resuming with a fourth placing behind the speedy That's A Good Idea. Smart Sydney galloper astutely placed here by trainer Chris Waller. This is a winnable race and Disciple has an excellent second-up record. He is taking on a field of mainly ageing or out-of-form gallopers and with the likelihood of a solid upfront tempo, Disciple can finish right over the top of these. If bookies bet $7 get on.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
THE BEST BET: Index Linked (race 1) just keeps winning. He ran down Leebaz over the Randwick 1600m course then scored another strong win over 1800m at Rosehill last Saturday. He is on the quick back-up here and must cope with a shorter trip, coming back to 1600m, but he is rock-hard fit against a small field. Expect Index Linked to settle closer in what is likely to be a slowly-run race and he will be in a position to strike from the turn. He was the best bet last week and got the job done and should do so again, albeit at very short odds.
NEXT BEST: Terravista (race 8) looks a highly promising sprinter. A half-brother to Tiger Tees, Terravista has inherited plenty of ability with two wins from just three starts. He won brilliantly on debut at Warwick Farm back in April then ran fifth as favourite behind the emerging superstar Boban at Warwick Farm again. He was spelled after that loss but resumed with a dominant effort at Randwick's Kensington track, beating Good Job Bro convincingly. He looked better than ever first-up, will strip fitter, drawn well and is nicely weighted. He ticks a lot of boxes.
VALUE BET: Titbit (race 6) shaped well first-up when working home well for sixth to She's A Girl at Rosehill over 1400m late month. It was her first run in 10 weeks so expect significant improvement. Titbit generally races well second-up and was unlucky not to win at a similar stage of her preparation when last in work. Randwick suits her racing style but the real key is the booking of John Kissick - his 3kg claim reduces Titbit's handicap to a very competitive weight. A definite knockout chance at odds of around $18.
THE WHISPER: Field Marshall (race 7) is placed to advantage today. Consistent sprinter resuming off a let-up but given an easy trial at Rosehill late last month. A Randwick winner over 1100m when last in work, Field Marshall invariably sprints well fresh. Drawn the outside barrier but will go back early with Jim Cassidy riding a "stalking" race. Watch for Field Marshall to sweep over the top of these late in the race.
THE BIG MONEY
FLEMINGTON
Race 1, Boomwaa is solid at $7.50 after a bet of $1230 at those odds.
Race 2, Sysmo is firm at $3.30 after bets of $3000 and $2000 at those odds, Electric Fusion is $11 to $4.80 after bets of $1000 at $7.50 and $700 at $6.50, Post D'France is also firm in betting after a bet of $1300/$3000 at $10/$3.11.
Race 3, Sharalam is $5.50 to $4.60 after bets of $1250 and $700 at $5.
Race 4, Dothraki is $12 to $10 after two bets of $500 each way at $10/$2.85), Trust In A Gust is $17 to $15 after bets of $900/$935 at $15/$3.88, Apollo's Choice is $26 to $17 after a bet of $580 at $17.
Race 5, Lake Sententia is $5 to $3.80 after bets of $600 at $5, $1200 at $4.40, $2750/$3000 at $4.20/$1.77 and $800 at $4.20, Keep De Rose is $15 to $13 after a bet of $650/$500 at $15/$4.39.
Race 6, Buffering is $8.50 to $8 after bets of $1250 and $1000 at $8.50, Epaulette is $13 to $12 after bets of $1000 at $13, $500 each way at $11/$3.42 and $1000 at $12, Moment Of Change is $11 to $10 after two bets of $1000 at $11.
Race 7, Boban is $4.60 to $3.40 after bets of $1500 [twice] at $4.60, $1000 at $4, $2500, $2200, $2000, $1000 [twice] & $800 at $3.70, $2300 at $3.60, $1000 [multiple times] at $3.40, Sacred Falls is $7 to $6 after bets of $1000 each way at $7/$2.50, $800 at $6.50, $1000 at $6, Speediness is $11 to $10 after bets of $3100 and $1500 at $11, $1000 at $10, Spurtonic is $10 to $7.50 after bets of $1000 and $650 at $10, $1000 and $700 at $8, Strike The Stars is $26 to $21 after a bet of $500 each way at $21/$6.
Race 8, Precedence is $8.50 to $6 after bets of $600 at $7.50 and $3000 at $7, Forgotten Voice is $9 to $8.50 after bets of $600 and $500 at $9, Garud is $15 to $13 after a bet of $500 at $15. Race 9, Longport is $14 to $9.50 after a bet of $3000 at $14, Disciple is $8 to $6.50 after a bit of $600 at $8, Limes is $17 to $9.50 after bets of $800 and $500 at $11.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
Race 2, Mavericks is $15 to $12 after a bet of $500 at $15.
Race 4, Adage is $4.60 to $4.40 after a bet of $1180 at $4.60.
Race 5, Lennie's Choice is $8 to $6.50 after a bet of $700 at $8.
Race 6, Fulminate is $13 to $11 after a bet of $500 at $13. Race 7, Absalon is $15 to $11 after a $500 each way bet at $13/$3.66, Faust is $9.50 to $6 after bets of $500 at $9, $500 at $8 and $500 at $7.
Race 8, Goldstone is $21 to $18 after a bet of $400 at $21, Raceway is $13 to $10 after bets of $500 at $13 and $500 at $11, Emblems is $12 to $8.50 after a bet of $500 at $12, Terravista is $3.20 to $2.90 after a bet of $1200 at $3.20, $2000 [twice] and $1000 at $3, Sand Dune is $23 to $15 after bets of $500 at $23, $500 at $21, $500 at $18, $1000 at $17 and $500 at $16.
TAB FIXED ODDS MULTIS
$1874 Double at $11.34 on Kirramosa (Crown Oaks - Won) / Boban (Emirates Stakes)
$1250 Double at $12.50 on Sertorius (Queen Elizabeth Stakes) / Get Pronto (Morphettville Race 8)
$1000 Treble at $75.60 on Lucky Nine (VRC Sprint Classic) / Boban (Emirates Stakes) / Sertorius (Queen Elizabeth Stakes)
$1000 Treble at $45.22 on Lake Sententia (Momentum Energy Stakes) / Lucky Nine (VRC Sprint Classic) / Boban (Emirates Stakes)
$1000 Double at $15 on Marmelo (Flemington Style Plate - Won) / Let's Make Adeal (Queen Elizabeth Stakes)
$1000 Double at $15 on Sheer Style (Randwick Race 2) / Get Pronto (Morphettville Race 8)
$1000 Double at $15 on Let's Make Adeal (Queen Elizabeth Stakes) / Get Pronto (Morphettville Race 8)
$1000 Double at $12.95 on Lucky Nine (VRC Sprint Classic) / Boban (Emirates Stakes) [two separate bets]
$1000 Double at $12.58 on Lucky Nine (VRC Sprint Classic) / Boban (Emirates Stakes at Flemington)
$1000 Double at $12.24 on Lucky Nine (VRC Sprint Classic) / Boban (Emirates Stakes at Flemington)
INTERSTATE
Eagle Farm race 5: Better Than Ready
Eagle Farm race 6: Devon
Morphettville race 4: Money Bags
Morphettville race 8: Get Pronto
PROVINCIAL MAIL
Newcastle race 6: Flattery
Newcastle race 7: Palliser
#Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners.
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