Victoria Derby 2021: The pros and cons for every runner

Gunstock is still top pick for the Victoria Derby despite the wide draw as Stephen Brassel runs the rule over every runner.

Gunstock winning the Caulfield Classic. Picture: Getty Images

Following Tuesday’s barrier draw National Racing Editor Stephen Brassel makes a case for and against each runner in the $2m Victoria Derby at Flemington.

While Forgot You and Gunstock hold sway at the top of the markets it’s a wide open edition of the 2500m classic and barriers have made it even more intriguing.

1 – FORGOT YOU (8) $3
Daniel Moor, 57kg, Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young
HIT: He’s a winner even though he never gets home by far and should run the 2500m right out.
MISS: Sixth run of his preparation?

2 – TUTUKAKA (12) $11
James McDonald 57kg, Tony Pike
HIT: Change of tactics and hit the line strongly to win the Geelong Classic and looks a genuine stayer and superstar hoop James McDonald taking the reins another plus.
MISS: Never beat much last start.

3 – ALEGRON (9) $9
Brett Prebble 57kg, James Cummings
HIT: Ran the best last 800m of the Spring Champion Stakes to finish third.
MISS: Just one win from eight starts.

4 – GUNSTOCK (19) $4
Jye McNeil 57kg, Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr
HIT: Impressive winning the Caulfield Classic and the stable and jockey are firing and Gunstock is improving every time he goes to the races.
MISS: Wide draw and short run to first turn.

5 – AKIHIRO (2) $26
Rachel King (57kg), Gary Portelli
HIT: Most experienced having had 10 starts and raced handy and fought on well enough in Moonee Valley Vase for fifth.
MISS: Question over a tough 2500m.

6 – CHARACTER (10) $26
Fred Kersley, James Cummings
HIT: Run down late after being there to win in the Geelong Classic and that followed solid fourth at Flemington.
MISS: Been up a long time.

7 – JUNGLE MAGNATE (5) $21
Luke Currie, Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr
HIT: Solid effort at only his fourth start when home strongly behind Forgot You at Moonee Valley and perfectly drawn.
MISS: Not as experienced as some of the others.

8 – COMMANDER HARRY (15) $21
Linda Meech 57kg, Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
HIT: Tremendous effort off a tough run when down narrowly to stablemate Forgot You at Moonee Valley last week.
MISS: Was last week a fluke as he started $91?

Forgot You runs down Commander Harry in last week’s Vase. Picture: Michael Klein

9 – HITOTSU (7) $9
John Allen 57kg, Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
HIT: Came off an impressive Donald maiden for great 5th behind Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas and gets Cox Plate-winning hoop on top.
MISS: Having just his third start of the preparation and 1600m to 2500m?

10 – CERBERUS (20) $34
Damien Thornton 57kg, Anthony & Sam Freedman
HIT: Was having only his third start when getting home strongly in Listed company at Morphettville last time out.
MISS: Won in a blanket finished last time and draws the outside gate.

11 – GUNDEC (3) $51
Craig Williams 57kg, Symon Wilde
HIT: Gets Craig Williams in the saddle and drawn beautifully for an on-pacer.
MISS: Well beaten last time.

12 – CLYDE (6) $101
Dean Yendall 57kg, Gary Portelli
HIT: Winner two of his last four starts in NSW and rock hard fit.
MISS: Been winning in much lower grade.

13 – EL ROCKO (16) $101
Jamie Mott 57kg, John McArdle
HIT: Run had some merit when just over three lengths from Forgot You at Moonee Valley last week.
MISS: Still a maiden after eight starts and drawn wide.

14 – RAGING BULL (17) $34
TBD 57kg, David Payne
HIT: Astute trainer and easily won his maiden at Wyong two runs back.
MISS: Only battled when 6th in the Champion Stakes.

15 – CHEERFUL MOMENT (14) $51
Blaike McDougall 57kg, Lindsey Smith
HIT: Looked a likely staying type after a couple of tough efforts when down narrowly at Flemington and Caulfield before failing last Saturday.
MISS: Has covered more ground than Burke and Wills from NZ to WA and now Victoria.

Cheerful Moment ran a close third at Caulfield two starts ago. Picture: Michael Klein

16 – TEEWATERS (4) $17
Declan Bates 57kg, Archie Alexander
HIT: Putting together a nice record with a win and three placings past four starts and solid at Caulfield last time.
MISS: Clearly outstayed by Gunstock last time.

17(e) – ZOUMON (13) $51
Glen Boss 57kg, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
HIT: Winner two from three and gets proven Group 1 winners Glen Boss and Waterhouse/Bott. Has the speed to get out of any trouble early.
MISS: Only won a Moe benchmark 70 last time.

18(e) – SEBASTIAN THE FOX (1) $67
Jarrod Fry 57kg, Shay Keating
HIT: Battled away when fourth behind Gunstock last time after solid third at Flemington.
MISS: One win was on Ballarat synthetic.

19(e) – KING OF PHARAOHS (18) $101
Will Gordon 57kg, Lindsey Smith
HIT: Bolted in with his maiden at Coleraine three runs back winning by nine lengths and two runs since have been solid.
MISS: This is much harder and drawn wide out.

20(e) – SPIRIT OF GAYLARD (11) $26
Jordan Childs 57kg, Mitchell Freedman
HIT: Held up for a run and good effort when fifth behind Forgot You in the Moonee Valley Vase last week.
MISS: As fourth emergency doubt he’ll get a run.

Originally published as Victoria Derby 2021: The pros and cons for every runner